Learn the Basics of Betting on Moneyline Odds in 2025

Moneyline betting stands as the simplest and most straightforward way to bet on sports at top online sportsbooks such as Lucky Rebel, BetOnline, and Everygame. That makes it the perfect entry point for newcomers while remaining a staple for experienced bettors.

Moneyline betting strips away the complexities found with point spread betting and over/under betting. It focuses solely on picking a winner, may it be an NFL game, a tennis match, or an MMA fight.

This direct approach to wagering has made it the bread and butter of sports betting. From MLB betting to college basketball betting to soccer betting and beyond, moneyline odds are available.

While the concept may seem simple—pick who wins, collect if you are right—bettors must consider the added depth of multiple factors. Understanding odds, calculating potential profits, and developing effective research and wagering strategies are all crucial. Grasping and mastering these nuances can bring substantial rewards for educated, responsible bettors.

The American sports betting landscape offers unique characteristics with its distinctive odds format and betting culture. Throughout this guide, we will focus specifically on American odds, the preferred format for U.S. sportsbooks. The context provided will resonate with the American betting experience.

Whether you are placing your first bet or looking to refine your approach to moneyline wagering, this guide will serve as your roadmap to making informed decisions and maximizing your potential returns.

Moneyline Betting Quick Links

Where Can You Make Moneyline Bets?

Moneyline bets are among the most popular wagers in sports betting. Therefore, you can find odds for them at virtually all top online sportsbooks, including Lucky Rebel, BetOnline, and Everygame.

If you are unfamiliar with any of these sportsbooks, check out our detailed sportsbook reviews to learn more about their features, bonuses, and betting options.

What Is Moneyline Betting?

Moneyline betting represents the purest form of sports wagering, where bettors simply select which team or individual will win a particular contest.

Unlike point spread betting, where the margin of victory or defeat matters, or totals betting, which focuses on the combined score, moneyline betting concerns itself with only one outcome: who wins the game or match.

This straightforward approach makes moneyline betting accessible to newcomers. At the same time, it remains a fundamental component of any serious bettor’s strategy.

The origins of moneyline betting trace back to the earliest days of organized sports wagering, where bettors would simply back their chosen competitor to win. While betting formats have evolved and diversified over time, the moneyline has remained constant. This is due to its simplicity and direct connection to the most basic element of competition—winning.

In the United States, moneyline betting has long been a staple, though its popularity varies by sport.

What distinguishes moneyline betting from other forms? The odds themselves contain all the information needed to understand both the implied probability of each outcome and the potential payout structure.

For example, when examining moneyline odds for one of this week’s NFL matchups, bettors immediately see not just which team is favored, but by how much. This allows for quick assessment of both risk and reward.

The straightforward nature of moneyline bets explains why they often provide a foundation for new bettors before they venture into more complex wagering options like parlays, teasers, or prop bets that involve multiple conditions or specific game events.

Understanding American Odds in Moneyline Betting

Knowing how to read sports betting odds is key to understanding types of bets and forming a sound betting strategy. At U.S. sportsbooks such as SportsBetting.ag and Bovada, American odds form the foundation of how moneylines are expressed.

In other parts of the world, fractional and decimal odds are popular. American odds are immediately distinguishable by their positive (+) and negative (-) values. These symbols serve as the first key to understanding what the numbers represent in terms of both probability of success and a bettor’s potential winnings.

Negative numbers indicate the favorite in a matchup—the team or individual expected to win. The number itself represents how much money a bettor needs to wager to win $100.

For example, consider MLB odds for a matchup between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, which is one of the biggest rivalries in American sports. If the New York Yankees are listed at -160, a bettor would need to risk $160 to win $100 in profit. The larger the negative number, the stronger the favorite. This increases the amount a bettor must risk more for the same potential reward.

Conversely, positive numbers indicate the underdog—the team or individual less likely to win according to oddsmakers. The number shows how much profit a bettor would make on a $100 wager. If the Boston Red Sox are listed at +140, a $100 bet would yield $140 in profit if successful.

As that number and potential winnings grow larger, the underdog’s probability of success decreases and the greater the potential reward. For example, if college football odds for a Big Ten matchup between Ohio State and Northwestern have the latter team as a +1500 underdog, that indicates that a victory by the Wildcats over the Buckeyes would be a major upset and is therefore a low probability outcome.

Understanding this basic relationship between the odds format and implied probability forms the foundation for all moneyline betting decisions.

Calculating Payouts and Implied Probability

Understanding how to calculate potential payouts from moneyline odds is essential for any bettor looking to make informed decisions. The calculation differs depending on whether you are betting on a favorite or an underdog but mastering both formulas allows you to quickly determine your potential return on any moneyline wager.

For favorites (negative odds), the formula to calculate profit is: (Stake ÷ |Odds|) × 100, where |Odds| represents the absolute value of the odds number.

For example, with a $50 bet on a -150 favorite, the calculation would be (50 ÷ 150) × 100 = $33.33 in profit. Your total return would be your original stake plus the profit, so $50 + $33.33 = $83.33.

For underdogs (positive odds), the formula is simpler: (Stake × Odds) ÷ 100. With a $50 bet on a +200 underdog, the calculation would be (50 × 200) ÷ 100 = $100 in profit. Your total return would be $50 + $100 = $150.

Beyond calculating payouts, savvy bettors also convert odds into implied probability. Implied probability is the bookmaker’s assessment of the likelihood of each outcome.

For negative odds, the formula is: |Odds| ÷ (|Odds| + 100) × 100. With a -150 favorite, this equals 150 ÷ (150 + 100) × 100 = 60% implied probability. For positive odds, the formula is: 100 ÷ (Odds + 100) × 100. A +200 underdog has an implied probability of 100 ÷ (200 + 100) × 100 = 33.33%.

By comparing these implied probabilities to your own assessment, you can identify potential value bets.

How to Calculate Payouts and Implied Probability for Moneyline Bets

Note: When calculating with negative odds, always remove the minus sign first.

Bet Type What This Means How to Calculate It Example
Favorite (Negative Odds) Profit you win if the bet is successful Divide your stake by the odds (ignore the minus sign), then multiply by 100 $50 bet at -150 → 50 ÷ 150 × 100 = $33.33 profit
Underdog (Positive Odds) Profit you win if the bet is successful Multiply your stake by the odds, then divide by 100 $50 bet at +200 → 50 × 200 ÷ 100 = $100 profit
Favorite (Negative Odds) Implied probability (chance to win) Divide the odds (ignore the minus sign) by the odds plus 100 -150 → 150 ÷ (150 + 100) = 60% chance to win
Underdog (Positive Odds) Implied probability (chance to win) Divide 100 by the odds plus 100 +200 → 100 ÷ (200 + 100) = 33.33% chance to win

Examples of Moneyline Bets Across Different Sports

Football moneyline betting offers some of the most dramatic odds disparities in American sports wagering.

In a typical NFL matchup, you might see the Kansas City Chiefs as a -280 favorite against the Denver Broncos at +230. This indicates the significant gap in perceived team strength. A $100 bet on the Chiefs would yield approximately $35.71 in profit. The same bet on the Broncos would return $230 if successful.

In simple terms, these differences reflect the talent disparity between teams. It also explains the inherent difficulty in producing true upsets in football. In basketball and baseball, team strength also factors in heavily, but individual performances can tip the scales.

In an NBA betting context, even substantial talent gaps between teams might result in more moderate odds differentials. This is because the volume of scoring opportunities gives underdogs more chances to overcome deficits.

In football, a team will find it hard to overcome a 17-point halftime deficit. In basketball, a chunk of that deficit can be erased over the course of a handful of offensive and defensive possessions.

So, an NBA matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers at -220 and the Sacramento Kings at +180 represents a clear favorite-underdog dynamic. But the odds remain within a range that acknowledges basketball’s inherent variability.

In sports like baseball, hockey, or soccer, the lower-scoring nature of the game and the impact of individual performers and performances make underdog wins a regular feature. This is especially the case in MLB games, due to the impact of starting pitching matchups.

Individual sports like tennis, golf, MMA, and boxing offer yet another dimension to moneyline betting. A UFC title fight might feature a dominant champion at -320 against a challenger at +260. This reflects both skill assessment and the historical difficulty of unseating champions.

Comparing Moneyline to Other Bet Types

While moneyline betting focuses exclusively on picking winners, point spread betting introduces a handicap designed to equalize the betting proposition between teams of differing abilities.

In the NFL, a -7 point spread for the Buffalo Bills against the Miami Dolphins means the Bills must win by more than seven points for spread bettors to win their wager, while Dolphins bettors win if their team loses by less than seven or wins outright.

This contrasts sharply with moneyline betting, where the Bills might be -330 favorites and the margin of victory is irrelevant—they simply must win. The key difference lies in the risk-reward calculation: spread betting typically offers more balanced odds (often -110 on both sides) but requires specific outcome parameters beyond simply winning.

Totals betting, commonly known as over/under betting, represents another alternative to moneyline wagering. Totals bettors forecast whether the combined score of both teams will exceed or fall short of a number set by oddsmakers. Bettors must assess offensive and defensive strengths, pace factors, and conditions like back-to-back games.

Parlays, teasers, and prop bets further expand the betting landscape beyond straightforward moneylines. Parlays combine multiple selections into one wager, requiring all selections to win for a payout but offering multiplied odds as compensation for the increased difficulty.

Ultimately, each betting type serves different purposes within a comprehensive betting strategy. Moneyline bets excel in situations where you have strong convictions about winners but are less concerned about margins. Point spreads provide value when team strength disparities create prohibitive moneyline odds. With totals, you may have a spread or moneyline lean but feel strongly about how many points will be scored.

Strategies for Successful Moneyline Betting

Bankroll management stands as the cornerstone of sustainable moneyline betting success. Experienced bettors typically allocate only 1-5% of their total bankroll to any single wager depending on their confidence level and the perceived edge.

When betting favorites with negative odds, it’s particularly important to consider the risk-reward ratio. Risking $300 to win $100 might mathematically represent fair value, but an upset could devastate your bankroll. That risk must be carefully weighed against the modest potential gain.

Value identification represents the philosophical heart of profitable moneyline betting. Rather than simply picking winners, successful bettors focus on finding odds that misrepresent the true probabilities of outcomes.

This requires developing your own assessment of win probabilities independent of the market. Then you must compare them to the implied probabilities of posted odds. If your analysis suggests Team A has a 60% chance of winning, but the odds imply only a 50% probability (perhaps +100 in American odds), you have identified potential value.

Sport-specific strategies can dramatically enhance moneyline betting effectiveness.

In baseball, focusing on starting pitching matchups, bullpen rest days, home/away splits, and important baseball betting stats and metrics often reveals value that broader market analysis might miss.

In NHL betting, bettors find edges by closely tracking goaltender confirmations and understanding the impact of back-to-back games on performance.

Basketball moneyline betting rewards those who quickly incorporate injury news and understand load management patterns for star players.

In NFL betting, moneylines often present value on home underdogs. This is particularly the case in divisional matchups where familiarity can narrow talent gaps. This also exists with conference matchups in college football but to a lesser extent due to the developmental nature of the sport and the significant annual turnover due to eligibility limits, recruiting, coaching changes, and the transfer portal.

Common Moneyline Betting Mistakes to Avoid

The favorite-heavy approach represents perhaps the most common pitfall for novice moneyline bettors.

The psychological comfort of backing the better team often leads to a portfolio heavily weighted toward favorites. This creates a situation where numerous modest wins can be wiped out by a single upset loss.

This tendency, sometimes called “picking winners syndrome,” prioritizes win percentage over profitability. The mathematical reality of moneyline betting is that consistently backing heavy favorites at -250 or worse typically leads to long-term losses regardless of how many individual bets win. Successful moneyline bettors overcome this bias by evaluating each betting opportunity based on value rather than likelihood of winning.

Emotional betting decisions plague even experienced bettors who allow personal team allegiances, recency bias, or the desire to recoup losses to override rational analysis. The bettor who increases their stake after losses (chasing) or who consistently backs their favorite team regardless of the odds faces major hurdles to profitability.

Disciplined bettors develop processes that remove emotion from decision-making. They emphasize objective analysis over narratives and maintaining consistent bet sizes.

Market timing errors occur when bettors fail to recognize the optimal moment to place moneyline wagers. Professional bettors often place their bets immediately when lines are released (to capitalize on any early mispricing) or just before game time (when all relevant information is available).

Understanding line movement in sports betting allows for strategic timing that maximizes potential value, such as backing underdogs early in markets that typically see favorite-heavy public betting as game time approaches.

Tools and Resources for Moneyline Bettors

Using reputable and reliable sports betting tools and resources can improve your chances of success with moneyline betting.

Odds comparison platforms and AI sports picks and prediction tools such as BetAlytics have simplified line shopping and revolutionized moneyline betting. Now, bettors can instantly view odds from dozens of sportsbooks on a single screen.

A moneyline underdog that’s +180 at one sportsbook might be +200 at another—a seemingly small difference that represents a substantial 11% increase in potential profit. The practice of line shopping through these comparison tools is perhaps the simplest yet most effective strategy for improving long-term returns. It requires little effort but can highlight significant immediate value.

Statistical analysis resources provide the quantitative foundation for informed moneyline betting decisions.

Sports databases TeamRankings offer deep historical data that reveal patterns and trends beyond what casual observation might uncover. Advanced metrics resources like FanGraphs (MLB) provide sport-specific analytics that often predict future performance more accurately than traditional statistics or recent results.

Odds calculators and conversion tools streamline the mathematical aspects of moneyline betting, allowing for quick assessment of value and expected returns.

Implied probability calculators instantly convert American odds to percentage probabilities. That can help bettors compare their own win probability estimates against the market’s assessment.

Payout calculators remove the mental math burden from betting decisions, particularly with unusual stake amounts or in parlay scenarios.

Sports betting communities, forums, and social media apps offer qualitative insights that complement quantitative analysis. These platforms feature both casual bettors and seasoned professionals sharing perspectives on upcoming games, market movements, and situational factors that might influence outcomes.

Conclusion

Moneyline betting stands as an entry point into betting. It is accessible for new bettors yet provides nuances for experienced and analytical bettors.

The discipline required for successful moneyline betting extends beyond simply picking winners. It demands objective analysis, emotional control, consistent bankroll management, and patience. Successful moneyline bettors focus on quality over quantity and value over action.

By combining the fundamental knowledge outlined in this guide with continuous learning, critical thinking, and disciplined execution, you position yourself to navigate the moneyline betting landscape successfully. No matter your approach to sports betting, understanding moneyline wagering is essential to your sports betting education.

Learn More About Sports Betting

This guide covers a lot of information that will serve sports betting beginners well, but it is just one of many guides we have for both new and experienced bettors.

Whether you want to learn about over/under bets, prop bets, and other types of bets, sportsbook bonuses, notable sports betting terms and phrases, or sports betting strategies such as hedging and middling, we have you covered.

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Moneyline Betting FAQ

What does a moneyline bet mean?
A moneyline bet is a wager on which team or player will win a game or match outright. The odds determine potential payouts, with favorites requiring a larger risk to win a smaller amount.
How do American moneyline odds work?
American moneyline odds use positive and negative numbers to indicate underdogs and favorites. Negative odds (e.g., -150) show how much you need to bet to win $100, while positive odds (e.g., +200) show how much you’d win on a $100 bet. Larger negative odds mean a stronger favorite. Bigger positive odds signal a bigger underdog.
Why are moneyline payouts different for favorites and underdogs?
Favorites have a higher probability of winning, so sportsbooks require a larger risk for a smaller reward. Conversely, underdogs are less likely to win, so they offer higher payouts to attract bets. This balance ensures sportsbooks limit their risk while still offering enticing odds for both sides.
Can moneyline bets end in a tie?
In most major sports, moneyline bets are graded as a push (refund) if a game ends in a tie and no draw option was available. However, some sports, like soccer, offer three-way moneyline betting, where you can bet on a win, loss, or draw. Always check the rules before placing your bet.
Is betting on the favorite always a good strategy?
Always betting on favorites is not necessarily a good strategy. Betting on favorites often means risking more for smaller payouts. That can be risky if an upset occurs. Successful bettors focus on value rather than simply picking winners. They consider factors like odds, implied probability, and situational analysis before placing moneyline bets.
How can I improve my moneyline betting strategy?
You can improve your moneyline betting strategy by researching team and player stats, tracking odds movement, and line shopping. Managing your bankroll and avoiding emotional betting decisions are also key to long-term success. Finding value rather than just picking winners is crucial as well.