Just a couple of weeks ago, the 2025 WNBA MVP race was on the verge of being called for Napheesa Collier, with both she and the Minnesota Lynx firmly separating themselves as the class of the league this season.
Then Collier suffered a sprained ankle in Las Vegas during Minnesota’s record-setting 110-58 win over the Aces on August 2, and she has not played since.
Her absence has not affected her team, as the Lynx (28-5) are 4-0 without her. That includes consecutive wins over the New York Liberty, who are considered Minnesota’s closest championship challenger.
However, it has opened the door for some late twists in the WNBA MVP race. And thanks to both her extended spell on the sidelines and some outstanding performances by the other remaining contenders, things have tightened up with WNBA MVP odds.
Collier still holds a healthy lead as the favorite, but could she be overhauled by Alyssa Thomas or A’ja Wilson down the stretch? Let’s take a look at the current state of the race following a potentially pivotal Sunday.
Is a Return Imminent for the WNBA MVP Favorite?
Prior to her injury, Collier was firing on all cylinders. After setting a WNBA All-Star Game record by scoring 36 points on the way to winning All-Star Game MVP honors in Indianapolis, she got back down to business with her team.
She ended July by averaging 26.5 points per game and 8.5 rebounds per game and shooting 64.5% from the field in a four-game stretch, which included back-to-back 30-point games against the Atlanta Dream (32 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, four steals, two blocks) and New York Liberty (30 points, nine rebounds, three blocks, two assists).
When she went down against the Aces on August 2, she had 18 points, five assists, three rebounds, and two steals in 26 minutes and was closing in on her 19th 20-point game of the season, which would have surpassed her total from last season in eight fewer games.
Through 26 games this season, Collier is averaging 23.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 3.5 APG, and she is shooting 53.7% from the field, 36.7% from three, and 90.8% from the foul line.
Even with these missed games, her WNBA MVP resume remains robust. She leads the league in scoring and is among the league leaders in rebounding (8th), steals (1.8 per game – 2nd), blocks (1.6 per game – 4th), field goal percentage (7th), and free throw percentage (4th). And she even ranks 21st in assists per game, which only further emphasizes her all-around impact.
That said, it would be difficult to see her win the WNBA MVP race if she missed most of Minnesota’s remaining games.
Fortunately, that seems unlikely to occur. Ahead of Saturday’s win over the Liberty, Collier was upgraded to doubtful. Does that mean she could return this week?
Upcoming Schedule for the Minnesota Lynx
- Tuesday, August 19 at New York (7:00 p.m. ET, NBA TV)
- Thursday, August 21 at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. ET)
- Friday, August 22 at Indiana (7:30 p.m. ET, ION)
- Sunday, August 24 vs. Indiana (7:00 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network)
When she returns, she and the Lynx may operate with caution initially. So, we should not expect her to return with 25 points and 10 rebounds in her first game back. Still, a return this week would be big for both the Lynx and Collier’s WNBA MVP hopes.
Thomas Taking Her Game to New Heights
Last night, the Phoenix Mercury’s quest to claim a top-three seed received a huge boost courtesy of an 85-82 win at Seattle.
Leading the way, as she has on many occasions this season, was Thomas. With 19 points, 11 assists, and 10 rebounds, Thomas recorded her fifth triple-double of the season.
Four of those triple-doubles have come in her first seven August games, and since being held below 10 points for only the second time this season in a loss to Atlanta on July 23, Thomas has averaged 18.7 PPG, 10.6 RPG, and 8.3 APG in her last 10 games.
Thomas has been one of the league’s top talents for some time now, but she has taken her game to a new level in her first season in Phoenix. Her recent reunion with fiancée DeWanna Bonner, who joined the Mercury last month, hasn’t hurt either. In their 14 games together, Thomas has averaged 18.0 PPG, 9.7 RPG, and 8.4 APG while shooting 54.6% from the field.
In many seasons, what Thomas is doing would be good enough to win WNBA MVP. But Collier has been so good in leading the league’s best team that there is still significant ground to make up even with Collier sidelined.
Could Wilson Miraculously Make WNBA MVP History?
There is also the matter of a certain three-time WNBA MVP launching herself into contention as she also leads her team back into the championship conversation.
While the Aces meandered along in mediocrity for much of this season, it’s not as if Wilson had somehow suffered a seismic drop-off from her usual standards. In fact, if not for her, the Aces would have been a much more miserable state.
But from the low of the 53-point loss to Minnesota, things now seem to be coming together for the Aces, with Wilson still carrying the largest part of the load but receiving the kind of support she needs from the rest of the squad.
Yesterday, the Aces won their seventh straight game, dispatching Dallas 106-87. Wilson went for 34 points and eight boards in 31 minutes, her third 30-point game in her last four games.
During the Aces’ win streak, Wilson has raised her season averages to 22.6 PPG and 9.9 RPG by averaging 26.1 PPG and 13.3 RPG. In addition to the three 30-point games, this stretch includes the first 30-20 game in WNBA history (32 points, 20 rebounds vs. the Sun eight days ago), five double-doubles, and 59 made free throws in 65 attempts.
The Aces have a rather favorable schedule from here, which bodes well for their hopes to secure a top-four seed when a playoff spot wasn’t a formality not long ago. And even if Wilson isn’t able to wrestle a record fourth WNBA MVP away from Collier, this ridiculous recent run has served as a resounding reminder that the best women’s basketball player on the planet resides in Las Vegas.
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