Through the first six and a half quarters of the series between the Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury, the Lynx were in full control and appeared to be well on the way to a second straight trip to the WNBA Finals. Now, it looks like everything is slipping away for the Lynx, who face a must-win Game 4 vs. the Mercury today at PHX Arena (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN).
They must try to save their season not only without WNBA MVP runner-up Napheesa Collier but also head coach Cheryl Reeve.
As bad as it was to lose a 20-point lead at home in an overtime loss in Game 2, Game 3’s 84-76 loss was even more devastating for the top-seeded Lynx. After leading entering the fourth quarter, they were outscored 21-9 in the last 10 minutes and 9-0 in the final 3:31.
Worse yet, Collier injured her left ankle in the final half-minute as the Mercury closed in on the win. Reeve’s resulting reaction saw her ejected for a second technical, and after all that followed, she was suspended for Game 4 by the league for conduct and comments they deemed inappropriate.
Can Minnesota overcome these losses and send the series back to the Target Center for a winner-take-all Game 5? Read on for our Lynx vs. Mercury Game 4 prediction and best bets, which will be accompanied by the best value odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction: Lynx to win
There is no positive way to spin the situation that the Lynx are in right now. But if there is a silver lining, it is that if there was any team built to deal with this situation, it’s Minnesota.
While the stakes were much lower, the Lynx have a fair bit of experience playing without Collier, who missed three weeks last month due to a sprained ankle.
That injury ultimately helped A’ja Wilson to overhaul her for WNBA MVP honors, but it did not keep the Lynx from locking down the top seed. They went 5-2 without her, losing only at New York and Atlanta, and scored two wins over the Liberty and one at Seattle in that stretch.
The Lynx can win Game 4 vs. the Mercury without Collier, and while Reeve will not be present on the sideline, her presence and influence will certainly be felt.
Also, while all that has occurred is destabilizing, it should not be demotivating. If anything, it should light a fire under the team.
While this is not the space for the debate, there should only be certain instances in which a coach should be suspended for a pivotal game like this. A perceived sense of injustice from the league’s choice can also be a motivator for Minnesota this evening and going forward if they can stay alive.
None of this is to say that the Mercury will get complacent at this point vs. the Lynx. They will know that Minnesota, while wounded, is still very dangerous.
That said, I think we will see the Lynx show one of the reasons why they were the league’s best team this season. They are a unit, and that togetherness will see them through to a Game 5 on Tuesday.
Lynx vs. Mercury Best Bets
1) Lynx +5 (-110 at BetOnline)
Wounded as they may be, do not count out this team. At all.
2) Courtney Williams Over 23.5 Points + Assists (+105 at Bovada)
In the first two games in Minneapolis, Williams filled up the stat sheet. She had 23 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, and five steals in Game 1, followed by 20 points, nine assists, seven rebounds, and three steals in Game 2.
Game 3 was not a dud, but it was a letdown by comparison. She was 6 of 16 from the field and scored only 14 points, dished out only three assists, and added five rebounds and two steals.
Expect her to bounce back and be a driving force as the Lynx look to stay alive vs. the Mercury. This number is low, and these odds are outstanding, especially with Collier out. It should top your board for this matchup, and over 16.5 points (-135 at Bovada), 20+ points (+180), 6+ assists (-140), and 2+ threes (+150) all look like great options as well.
3) Kayla McBride to Score 20+ Points (+155 at Lucky Rebel)
McBride scored 21 points in both Game 1 and Game 2, but she managed only 12 points in Game 3. In Friday’s loss, she just 2 of 6 from three and 3 of 10 from the field overall, though she did log five assists for the first time in the postseason.
With Collier out, McBride will need to be on target early and often, but I’m zeroing in on this play more because of expected volume than expected efficiency. I’m also locking in 4+ threes at +200. McBride was 4 of 9 from three in Game 1 and 4 of 8 from three in Game 2, and she has had 4+ triples 13 times this season.
4) Natisha Hiedeman to Score 10+ Points (-115 at Bovada)
Hiedeman was Minnesota’s top scorer in Game 3, scoring 19 points (7 of 12 FG) in 23 minutes, though she missed all four of her three-point attempts and didn’t score in the fourth quarter.
With Collier out, Hiedeman is one of the players who will be counted on to chip in offensively. That Game 3 performance should give her the confidence to keep firing away in Game 4.
In addition to this play, 15+ points (+350 at Bovada) and 2+ threes (+180 at Bovada) are also worth a look. She has made just 3 of 17 threes (17.6%) in the playoffs, but she is a good outside shooter and has hit 2+ threes 14 times this season.
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