More than midway through Game 2 on Tuesday, it looked like the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx were on their way to another double-digit win and a 2-0 lead vs. the Phoenix Mercury. Then Phoenix rose to the occasion and came all the way to not only force overtime, but to also take a split back home. Tonight, the fourth-seeded Mercury will look to move within a game of the WNBA Finals with a Game 3 victory vs. the Lynx at PHX Arena (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2).
Just over four minutes into the third quarter, Minnesota led 59-39 after a three-pointer by Napheesa Collier. From there, the long road back began for Phoenix.
The Mercury first went on a 15-3 run to close the third quarter and pull within eight entering the fourth. The Lynx pushed the lead back out to a dozen with eight minutes left, but Phoenix pulled within a point with a 15-4 run, and after remaining within reach, forced overtime with Sami Whitcomb’s three with 4.3 seconds remaining in regulation.
After not leading for the final 32 and a half minutes of regulation, the Mercury went ahead in the first minute of overtime and did not allow a point for nearly four minutes of the extra period on the way to wrapping up a shocking 89-83 win.
From being on the way to needing tonight’s game to be a must-win, the Mercury are very much in this series vs. the Lynx as the action moves to Phoenix.
Can Minnesota bounce back after things came undone so catastrophically on Tuesday? Or will Phoenix take a 2-1 series lead that few would have foreseen? Read on for our Lynx vs. Mercury Game 3 prediction and best bets, which feature the best line-shopped odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
Lynx vs. Mercury Betting Trends
- The Lynx are 12-8-1 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in their previous game. This includes their Commissioner’s Cup final loss to the Fever, which was followed by a cover in league action against the Mystics.
- The Lynx are 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS this season when favored by five or fewer points.
- Minnesota is 15-8 SU and 11-12 ATS on the road this season but has failed to cover in four consecutive road games.
- The under is 6-3-1 in the Lynx’s last 10 games overall and in their last 10 road games as well.
- The Mercury are 8-9 SU and 9-8 ATS as an underdog this season, including 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS as a home underdog.
- Phoenix is 10-12-1 ATS in games following a cover in the previous game.
- The under is 12-3 in the Mercury’s last 15 games, including 4-1 in the playoffs.
- The under is 15-9 in Phoenix’s home games this season, with hits in seven consecutive games.
Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction: Lynx to win
What happened to Minnesota in Game 2? Were they burned by overconfidence and complacency? Did Phoenix just hit all of the right notes at the right times?
At this point of the season, every team left standing is a good team. That includes the Mercury, who are led by an MVP candidate and feature a strong supporting cast.
Still, the Lynx’s second-half collapse vs. the Mercury in Game 2 is not easy to explain away. But as good as they have been this season, I find it hard to see it being a sign of a bigger issue.
If anything, it could serve as a valuable wake-up call for Minnesota. If the Lynx are to become the fourth consecutive No. 1 seed to win the WNBA Finals, it will not come with an easy, breezy run to the title.
Look for a much more complete performance for the Lynx tonight and a chance to clinch in Game 4 on Sunday (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Lynx vs. Mercury Best Bets
1) Lynx -3.5 (-118 at BetOnline)
When you get hit square in the mouth, there are only two ways to respond. Either you continue to stand there and let the other side keep wailing away, or you deliver a resounding blow right back.
You don’t win 34 games without being able to take and deliver plenty of punches, and as mystifying as it was to see Minnesota fall apart on Tuesday, there’s plenty of evidence and equity in the bank to feel confident of a response tonight.
2) Natisha Hiedeman to Score 10+ Points (+220 at Lucky Rebel)
While there are plays on the board that offer more certainty than this one, I quite the value with this one.
In Game 2, Hiedeman played 15 minutes but did not record a single point or a single shot attempt from the field or foul line. This was after going 2 of 8 from the field in Game 1 vs. the Mercury and 1 of 5 from the field in the Game 2 win against the Valkyries that propelled the Lynx to this round.
In Game 2, Collier (24 points), Kayla McBride (21 points), Courtney Williams (20 points), and Alanna Smith (13 points) combined for 78 of Minnesota’s 83 points, with the only other points coming from Jessica Shepard (three) and Bridget Carleton (two). This was after Williams (23), McBride (21), and Collier (18) combined for 62 of the Lynx’s 82 Game 1 points.
So, Cheryl Reeve may be expecting more from others tonight, including Hiedeman. She scored 10+ points 17 times in 44 regular season games and had 18 in Game 1 against Golden State, so a double-digit performance is very much in her range if she plays her usual 15-20 minutes.
3) Alyssa Thomas Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds (-120 at Bovada)
In Game 2, Thomas finished two points shy of her second triple-double of the playoffs, scoring 19 points, dishing out 13 assists, and grabbing eight rebounds to help the Mercury even the series vs. the Lynx.
That followed a solid performance in Game 1 in which she had 18 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, and three steals. Thus far in the postseason, she is averaging 17.2 PPG, 9.2 APG, and 8.4 RPG in five games, continuing from the performances that made her a WNBA MVP finalist.
You can tackle the over on almost any of Thomas’s props tonight and feel good about it, but this is the one I am focusing on. She has had a couple of seven-assist games in the playoffs, but she has had at least eight rebounds in four of five games, all while scoring 15+ points in four of five games.
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