The road to a repeat has been paved with injuries and ups and downs in performance for the New York Liberty. Still, the Liberty enter their first-round playoff series vs. the Phoenix Mercury as one of the top title favorites, and a Game 1 win in Phoenix (5:00 p.m. ET, ESPN) would serve as a real statement of intent for the defending champs.
Both the Liberty and Mercury finished 27-17 in the regular season, but while that was a so-so season for the fifth-seeded Liberty after consecutive 30-win seasons, it marked a return to relevance for the fourth-seeded Mercury.
Phoenix said goodbye to franchise fixtures Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi after last season, and the off-season acquisitions of Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas and an in-season reunion with DeWanna Bonner helped the Mercury post a winning season for the first time since 2021.
That was the team’s eighth and final season with 2014 title-winning coach Sandy Brondello, who led the Liberty to the franchise’s first title last season.
Losing Betnijah Laney-Hamilton for the season and seeing Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones all miss several games hampered New York’s hopes of landing a more favorable road to a repeat.
But the talent that the Liberty possess is why top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline view them as one of the teams to beat and the favorite to win this series vs. the Mercury.
Can they prove those odds right out of the gate with a win in Phoenix? Read on for our Liberty vs. Mercury prediction and best bets.
Liberty vs. Mercury Betting Trends
- In the regular season, the Liberty were 10-12 SU and 4-17-1 ATS on the road.
- New York was 9-4 SU and 4-9 ATS as a road favorite in the regular season.
- The Liberty were 4-16-1 ATS in their final 21 regular season games.
- The under was 13-3-1 in the Liberty’s last 17 regular season games.
- Phoenix was 6-7 SU and 7-6 ATS as an underdog this season.
- The under was 17-6-1 in Phoenix’s last 24 regular season games, including 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- The under hit in eight of the Mercury’s last nine home games in the regular season.
Liberty vs. Mercury Game 1 Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction: Mercury to win
I can see where oddsmakers are coming from in giving the Liberty the edge, but the Mercury had their number in the regular season, winning three of four head-to-head matchups.
It also can’t be overlooked that the Liberty are just one of two playoff teams that finished under .500 on the road. Yes, there were a lot of instances in which they were without one star or another, but they were overall just unable to sustain their hot start to the season.
If we see the best of New York, the sky is certainly the limit for them. But Phoenix didn’t luck its way into the No. 4 seed. They earned it, and they have the horses to handle this moment. You never know what players do and don’t read, but they might well feel a little disrespected that they are an underdog here despite having dominated the Liberty in the regular season and owning homecourt advantage in the series.
Liberty vs. Mercury Best Bets
1) Mercury ML (+110 at BetOnline)
The disrespect angle might be an optimistic (but reasonable) one, but this Mercury team is good enough to not need that extra little bit to push them over vs. the Liberty.
2) Liberty/Mercury Over 164.5 (-110 at Everygame)
The trends heavily favor the under, and though I don’t like betting the under in almost any capacity, it is healthy to step outside of your comfort zone from time to time,
I won’t be doing that here, however. Three of the four regular season meetings between the Liberty and Mercury went over this number, and in the only one that didn’t (Phoenix’s 80-63 win at home on August 30), New York was without Sabrina Ionescu.
Playoff openers can be tense and sloppy, but there’s a lot of offensive talent on both sides in this Liberty vs. Mercury matchup and I think we’ll see some scoring today.
3) Alyssa Thomas Over 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120 at Bovada)
In the four Liberty vs. Mercury meetings in the regular season, Thomas averaged 17.3 PPG, 10.5 RPG, and 9.8 APG and went over this number three times. Look for a big game from her, and +280 for a triple-double is worth a sprinkle as well with that in mind.
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