The Atlanta Dream produced the regular season that many thought that the Indiana Fever would have, winning 30 games and claiming a top-three seed in the WNBA playoffs. But will the Fever carry a strong finish into a Game 1 upset vs. the Dream this afternoon (3:00 p.m. ET, ABC)?
Entering this season, the Dream were expected to make some noise, but they exceeded those expectations. After winning 611 games at Florida Gulf Coast, Karl Smesko carried his winning ways into the WNBA, setting a record for the most wins by a first-year head coach in league history as the Dream doubled their win total from last season.
The Dream enter the playoffs as the No. 3 seed and face a matchup vs. a Fever team that will be aiming to translate a strong finish into a playoff run.
With Caitlin Clark limited to only 13 games this season, Indiana did not reach expected heights. In fact, they weren’t even a lock for the playoffs heading into the homestretch.
But they solidified their spot by winning five of seven to close the regular season and avoided either the Minnesota Lynx or Las Vegas Aces by winning their last three games and edging out the Golden State Valkyries and Seattle Storm for the No. 6 seed.
The Dream are heavily favored to win this series according to top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline, which is not a surprise. But the playoffs are a new season and a fresh start, and anything can happen.
Will Indiana strike an early blow and pull a stunner on the road? Or will Atlanta get off to a Dream start at home? Read on for our Fever vs. Dream Game 1 prediction and best bets.
Fever vs. Dream Betting Trends
- In the regular season, the Fever were 11-11 SU and 10-12 ATS on the road.
- Indiana went 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS as a road underdog and 9-9 SU and 11-7 ATS overall as an underdog in the regular season.
- The Fever are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
- Indiana is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog.
- The under is 5-1 in the Fever’s last six games and 7-3 in their last 10 road games.
- Atlanta went 16-6 SU and 14-8 ATS at home in the regular season.
- The Dream went 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine regular season games and 17-4 SU and 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 regular season games.
- The under is 6-3-1 in the Dream’s last 10 home games and 11-4 in their last 15 overall games.
Fever vs. Dream Game 1 Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction: Dream to win
There is certainly something to be said for the Fever pushing through this season. They certainly could have mailed it in without Clark as we have seen plenty of other teams do when they lose their best player.
On the other side, the Dream were almost unbeatable in the second half of the season, but the playoffs are a different animal. How will they perform under the pressure of being expected to brush aside the Fever?
That the Fever persevered through Clark’s injuries certainly merits a lot of praise, and they can play loose with nothing to lose and no pressure. But it will take a big, big effort on both ends to have a chance to upset the odds today and in this series, based on Atlanta’s regular season resume.
Fever vs. Dream Best Bets
1) Dream -7.5 (-115 at Everygame)
Spread favorites are a risky play in series openers because you never know what you might get, but one benefit of the WNBA playoffs starting only a few days after the end of the regular season is that there isn’t time to get rusty or knocked off-kilter.
Plus, every single game down the stretch meant something for Atlanta, who battled the Aces to the wire for the No. 2 seed. So, I’m less concerned about the Dream vs. the Fever than I would be in this spot about an NBA team that might have been off for a week and checked out for the last week or two of the regular season.
The Dream won five straight games by double digits to close out the regular season, and 23 of their 30 regular season wins were by eight or more points, including 14 of their 16 home wins.
2) Rhyne Howard Over 17.5 Points (-111 at Lucky Rebel)
After missing nearly a month across July and August, Howard scored 18 or more points nine times in her last 14 regular season games, including six of the last seven and five straight at home. Even if her threes aren’t falling (she is -120 at Bovada to go over 2.5 makes, which is also worth a look given her typical volume of attempts), she can still hit this number.
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