After 51 games, the Indiana Fever are in a place many thought that they would be at the start of the season. The journey to get here, however, has been far, far different than they or anyone else would have expected. But if they upset the odds one more time tonight vs. the Aces in Game 5 of their semifinal series (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), the Fever will be off to the WNBA Finals for the first time since 2015.
After winning two must-win games against the Atlanta Dream in the first round, the sixth-seeded Fever did the same thing against the second-seeded Aces on Sunday, keeping their season alive with a 90-83 victory.
That sets up a winner-take-all matchup tonight for the chance to face the fourth-seeded Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA Finals, which will begin Friday (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Will the Finals begin at PHX Arena, or will they begin at Michelob Ultra Arena?
In the first round against the Seattle Storm, the Aces eked out a one-point win in Game 3, surviving thanks to a late putback by Jackie Young.
Another similarly tight win will be enough for the hosts to return to the Finals after missing out last year, but they will no doubt be aiming for a much smoother ride this time around.
Who will move within four wins of raising a WNBA championship banner? Read on for our Fever vs. Aces Game 5 prediction and best bets, featuring the best line-shopped betting odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
Fever vs. Aces Betting Trends
- Indiana is 5-9 SU and 6-8 ATS as a road underdog this season.
- The Fever are 9-5 SU and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games, including 4-3 SU and ATS in the playoffs.
- The Aces are 11-5 SU and 9-7 ATS in games following a loss this season.
- Las Vegas is 15-4 SU and 10-9 ATS this season when favored by eight or more points.
- The under is 3-1 in the Aces’ four home games in this year’s playoffs.
Fever vs. Aces Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction: Aces to win
In the first round, the Dream had a chance to put away the Fever and failed to do so. They led by seven at halftime, by seven late in the third quarter, and by five with two and a half minutes remaining.
Each time, they failed to put Indiana away, and they ultimately paid the price as they went scoreless over the final 2:32 of an 87-85 loss.
The Aces did not get such an opportunity in Game 4 in Indiana on Sunday, as they rarely led in a 90-83 loss. But every time they needed a big bucket or a big stop, they were unable to make it happen, even with A’ja Wilson going for a game-high 31 points.
While the Aces have the best in the business in Wilson, the Game 4 loss vs. the Fever exposed what may be the team’s two fatal flaws.
The Aces are a much better team when they can overwhelm the opposition and when they play sound defense, and in Game 4, the Fever shot 39.1% from three and 49.3% from the field.
They are also better when they get more offensive balance and support for Wilson, even in games in which she goes off. Jackie Young scored 18 and dished out nine assists, but the next top scorer was Chelsea Gray with a dozen points.
At this point, the Fever have been allowed to hang around enough vs. both the Dream and Aces that they are unlikely to be overwhelmed. And they know how to exploit the Aces’ weaknesses.
But the Aces are 13-1 SU and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games, and that home support should serve as a driving force in a series-clinching victory.
Fever vs. Aces Best Bets
1) Chelsea Gray 8+ Assists (+270 at Lucky Rebel) & Over 16.5 Points + Assists (+105 at Lucky Rebel)
In Game 4, Gray had eight assists and four steals to go with her 12 points. It was the fourth time in five games that she hit over 16.5 points + assists.
Gray has hit that number 17 times in 26 home games this season, compared to only eight times in 25 road games. In addition to the four times she has hit it in the playoffs (twice at home), she was a point or assist away in two other games (Game 2 vs. the Storm and Game 2 vs. the Fever). Also, the Aces are 19-6 when she goes over 16.5 points + assists (though 1-2 vs. the Fever).
Look for her to hit it in a win tonight, and with 8+ assists four times in the playoffs already, 8+ assists at these odds are something to not pass up whatsoever.
2) Jackie Young Over 16.5 Points (-115 at Bovada) & Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120 at Bovada)
In Game 4, Young hit both over 16.5 points and over 26.5 points + rebounds + assists, had 18 points, nine assists, and five rebounds in a losing effort for the Aces vs. the Fever.
Given that this was the fifth time she has done each in the postseason, these odds feel like a steal here. For the season, she has gone over 26.5 points + rebounds + assists 15 times in 26 home games, compared to just 10 times in 25 road games.
So, the percentages are certainly favorable for both to happen tonight. If it does, the outcome will likely be a ticket to the WNBA Finals for the Aces, who are 13-2 this season when Young goes over 27.5 PRA at home and 18-7 when she scores 17+ points.
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