After suffering a surprising 16-point loss at home in Game 1 against the Fever, the Las Vegas Aces have responded with consecutive double-digit victories of their own to move within a win of a trip back to the WNBA Finals. Will Game 4 of the Aces vs. Fever series (3:00 p.m. ET, ABC) be the finale, or does Indiana have one more trick up its sleeve to force a decisive Game 5 on Tuesday?
The Aces led for the majority of Game 3 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, save for the third quarter that still ended with Las Vegas on top. But Indiana stayed within reach until the visitors went on an 8-0 run in the fourth to push a four-point lead to 12. From there, the Fever got no closer than eight as the Aces closed out an 84-72 win.
Now, it is Indiana’s turn to respond and push the series to a fifth game. As it is, the Fever have done rather well to even be at this point with Caitlin Clark sidelined for most of the season, a rash of injuries throughout the campaign, and with offseason acquisition DeWanna Bonner not working out at all.
They managed to make the playoffs and get the No. 6 seed (which kept them from meeting the Aces sooner). Then they rallied to eliminate the Dream on their own floor before opening this series in the best way possible.
But do they have at least one more magical moment in them? Or are the Aces on their way back to the WNBA Finals after missing out last year?
Read on for our Aces vs. Fever Game 4 prediction and best bets, which are accompanied by the best value odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
Aces vs. Fever Betting Trends
- The Aces are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
- Las Vegas is 10-5 SU and 8-6-1 ATS as a favorite of five or fewer points this season, including 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven instances.
- In Becky Hammon’s tenure (which started in 2022), the Aces are 6-3 SU and ATS in the playoffs when favored by five or fewer points.
- The under has hit in every game of the Aces vs. Fever series.
- The Fever are 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS this season as an underdog of five or fewer points.
- Indiana is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS this season as an underdog of five or fewer points at home.
- The under is 5-1 in the Fever’s six playoff games and 10-2 in their last 12 games overall.
- The under has hit in nine straight matchups between the Aces and Fever.
Aces vs. Fever Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction: Aces to win
The Fever have given it their all to get here, and they will continue to do so until their season ends.
Unfortunately, their season looks likely to end today.
In Game 1, Indiana shut down A’ja Wilson, and it helped them snatch a series-opening win in Las Vegas.
They did the same thing in Game 3, as Wilson scored only 13 points and made just 6 of 20 shots from the field in 38 minutes.
However, she had a huge basket to restore the Aces’ lead to six with six minutes left and two late baskets to help close out the win. And despite Wilson’s individual woes, the Aces still shot 50.8% as a team thanks to big games for Jackie Young (9 of 14 FG, 25 points), Na’Lyssa Smith (8 of 13 FG, 16 points), and Chelsea Gray (5 of 7 FG, 15 points).
Stopping the MVP is good and all, but when everyone else combines to shoot 60% (and make 14 of 16 from the free-throw line), that effort can be for naught.
Wilson is unlikely to have back-to-back poor games, and while the Storm were able to nearly negate a monster Game 3 by Wilson by limiting the supporting cast to fewer points (36) than they did Wilson (38), Indiana is not on the same level defensively as Seattle.
I don’t see the Aces clinching in a blowout, but clinching is what I do see. The Fever aren’t out of juice, but they are simply going up against a better team. But even if Indiana musters up enough to send the series back to Las Vegas, it’s difficult to picture an outcome that does not have the Aces in the WNBA Finals.
Aces vs. Fever Best Bets
1) Aces/Fever First Quarter Over 39 (-115 at Bovada)
While full game trends line up to favor the under, some first quarter trends favor some scoring in Game 4.
For the Fever, all of their odd-numbered games featuring 39+ first-quarter points (Game 1 and Game 3 vs. the Atlanta Dream and Game 2 vs. the Aces) and their even-numbered games featuring fewer than 39 first-quarter points.
- G1 vs. Atlanta: 39
- G2 vs. Atlanta: 34
- G3 vs. Atlanta: 56
- G1 vs. Las Vegas: 37
- G2 vs. Las Vegas: 43
- G3 vs. Las Vegas: 36
Also, there have been 39 or more first-quarter points in 12 of the Fever’s last 15 games overall and in eight of their last 10 home games.
2) A’ja Wilson to Score 25+ Points (-135 at Lucky Rebel)
While the Fever did a fantastic job to limit Wilson in Game 3, it was not as beneficial as it was in Game 1, when limiting her to 16 points on 6 of 22 shooting helped them pull the upset at Michelob Ultra Arena.
Also, it means that the four-time MVP will likely have a big game as she and the Aces look to close things out vs. the Fever.
- G1 vs. Seattle: 29 points
- G2 vs. Seattle: 21 points
- G3 vs. Seattle: 38 points
- G1 vs. Indiana: 16 points
- G2 vs. Indiana: 25 points
- G3 vs. Indiana: 13 points
Also, in the previous 10 instances in which Wilson was held below 20 points, she scored 25+ points in the next game seven times, including five 30-point games. Scary hours may lie ahead for the Fever.
3) Aces/Fever Under 159 (-110 at BetOnline)
Other books have the total at 159.5, but I’m going with the best available odds over the better number here.
That everything points to the under makes the over lover in me want to be a contrarian here so badly. I can’t bring myself to do that, however.
The only caveat here is that most of the totals in these instances are in the 160s. It would be nice to have a bit more wiggle room to work with, but that will hopefully not be necessary.
However, 160+ points have been scored only four times in the Fever’s last 12 games and only three times in the last nine Aces vs. Fever matchups.
Other WNBA Betting Content
Betting News extensively covers the WNBA, providing best bets and WNBA picks daily for matchups such as Aces vs. Fever, analysis of key storylines from a betting perspective, and more.
Are you new to betting on the WNBA? Check out our updated WNBA betting guide. It covers a lot of basic information about the league, how to bet on it, and betting tools and resources that can enhance your chances of a successful season betting on the WNBA.
Several of our sports betting guides are also handy resources for WNBA bettors. This includes our guide to futures bets, our breakdowns of line movement and line shopping, and our comparison of moneyline and spread betting.
Also, check out our streams and social media channels for even more WNBA betting insight.