For the third time in 2025, the undisputed top two players in men’s tennis will face off for a Grand Slam title. After an unbelievable comeback by Carlos Alcaraz in the French Open final and a drought-breaking victory for Jannik Sinner in the Wimbledon final, what is in store for the Sinner vs. Alcaraz rubber match in today’s US Open men’s singles final?
In June, Alcaraz extended his win streak versus Sinner to five in a five-hour, 29-minute epic at Roland Garros. Down first two sets to none, then down triple championship point on his serve in the fourth set, Alcaraz dug to the deepest depths and carved out a comeback win that will be remembered for a long time.
There was little to separate the two in the rematch at Wimbledon, but this time around, it was Sinner coming from behind after losing the first set in a 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 triumph.
US Open odds forecast a third consecutive final between No. 1 and No. 2, and both duly obliged by largely strolling through six matches apiece to set up today’s title tilt.
Alcaraz had the better of Sinner on clay. Sinner had the better of Alcaraz on grass. Will Sinner wrap a nearly perfect season in Slams by securing the hard-court Slam sweep? Or will Alcaraz make it an even split between them and claim his second US Open title? Read on for our Sinner vs. Alcaraz prediction and picks and find out which top online sportsbooks have the best odds for our US Open men’s final best bets.
Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
| Player | Match Spread | Moneyline | Total Match Games Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | +5.5 (-115) | +306 | Over 37.5 (-116) |
| Carlos Alcaraz | -5.5 (-102) | -385 | Under 37.5 (+104) |
Sinner vs. Alcaraz Prediction and Picks
US Open Men’s Singles Final Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz to win
Sinner vs. Alcaraz Picks
1) Alcaraz ML (+110 at Lucky Rebel)
2) Alcaraz +1.5 Games (-113 at BetOnline)
Since the start of his run to his first of consecutive Australian Open titles, Sinner has been a nearly unbeatable force.
But until this year’s Wimbledon final, his robust resume in that run was lacking one big thing: a win over Alcaraz. After the way he lost in the French Open final, even he might have wondered what it would take to beat Alcaraz if his best seemingly wasn’t enough.
Then, in rather anticlimactic fashion, he finally did it, in the process quashing Alcaraz’s quest for a third consecutive Wimbledon title. Perhaps it was only fitting that he would do it without having to engage in another five-hour, five-set classic. Instead, it was just over three hours, and a solitary break of service in the second, third, and fourth sets proved to be the difference.
So, with that out of the way, will the tide turn in what appears to be tennis’s next great rivalry?
The final of the Cincinnati Open was supposed to be the next part of the Sinner vs. Alcaraz rivalry, but Sinner retired due to illness after only 23 minutes and with Alcaraz up 5-0 in the first set.
US Open Results for Jannik Sinner
- First Round: defeated Vit Kopriva 6-1, 6-1, 6-2
- Second Round: defeated Alexei Popyrin 6-3, 6-2, 6-2
- Third Round: defeated #27 Denis Shapovalov 5-7, 6-4, 6-3, 6-3
- Fourth Round: defeated #23 Alexander Bublik 6-1, 6-1, 6-1
- QF: defeated #10 Lorenzo Musetti 6-1, 6-4, 6-2
- SF: defeated #25 Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-1, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4
US Open Results for Carlos Alcaraz
- First Round: defeated Reilly Opelka 6-4, 7-5, 6-4
- Second Round: defeated Mattia Bellucci 6-1, 6-0, 6-3
- Third Round: defeated Luciano Darderi 6-2, 6-4, 6-0
- Fourth Round: defeated Arthur Rinderknech 7-6 (7-3), 6-3, 6-4
- QF: defeated #20 Jiri Lehecka 6-4, 6-2, 6-4
- SF: defeated Novak Djokovic 6-4, 7-6 (7-4), 6-2
Sinner did have an abdominal issue that caused a medical timeout during Friday’s win over surprise semifinalist Felix Auger-Aliassime, but according to reports, it is not something that should come into play against Alcaraz.
With no concerns on either side, the best way to bet Sinner vs. Alcaraz is ultimately a matter of who you believe in the most. There is a strong argument for either side here, and unlike in many instances, there isn’t a side that feels like it could be the wrong one to take.
That said, Alcaraz’s run to the final has seen him win 18 of 18 sets and be broken just twice, once in the second set of his third-round win over Mattia Bellucci and then in the second set of his semifinal victory over Novak Djokovic.
Sinner has had the toughest road overall, but Alcaraz had the toughest single opponent to this point and dispatched Djokovic in a way few are capable of, even at this stage of his career.
For me, that puts Alcaraz over the edge and makes him the man to bet in what should be another three, four, or five hours of top-notch tennis between the top two players in the world.