With Rafael Nadal sidelined for the 2023 French Open due to injury, the door was wide open for Novak Djokovic to make a run at breaking his tie with Nadal for the record for Grand Slam men’s singles titles.
And Djokovic has made the most of Nadal’s absence, setting up a chance to win his record 23rd title today with a win over Casper Ruud in the final.
With Nadal claiming 14 of 18 titles since making his Roland Garros debut in 2005, there hasn’t been a lot of room for others to find glory there. As such, only two of Djokovic’s 22 titles have come at the French Open, in 2016 and 2021.
But with a win over Ruud, Djokovic will not only move past Nadal in the record books, but he will also maintain his quest for a calendar-year Grand Slam, which is the only thing that he has yet to accomplish in his illustrious career.
Unsurprisingly, odds are heavily in favor of the two-time champion. But will last year’s losing finalist also make the most of Nadal’s absence in Paris? In 2022, Ruud was on the receiving end of a 3-6, 3-6, 0-6 rout, and he’ll be aiming to leave with better memories this time around.
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What are the best bets for today’s final in Paris? Before we dive into our French Open men’s final picks, let’s take a look at Djokovic vs Ruud odds.
Novak Djokovic vs Casper Ruud Odds
Odds to Win the 2023 French Open Men’s Final
- Novak Djokovic -500
- Casper Ruud +375
Games Spread
- Novak Djokovic -6 (-105)
- Casper Ruud +6 (-125)
Total Match Games Over/Under
- Over 37.5 Games (-115)
- Under 37.5 Games (-115)
Novak Djokovic vs Casper Ruud Prediction and Picks
With Nadal missing out on the tournament, Djokovic and #1 seed Carlos Alcaraz were the top two favorites to claim this year’s French Open men’s singles title.
My pick was Alcaraz, who went into the French Open having claimed two titles during the spring clay court swing. The world number one appeared to be well on his way to backing up that pick, as he dropped only one set in his first five matches at Roland Garros and entered his semifinal showdown with #3 seed Djokovic off of a straight-sets win over former French Open finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Then he was undone by cramps, and after squaring things up at a set apiece, it all ended rather swiftly for the reigning US Open champion, as Djokovic claimed a 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1 win.
So, will it be Djokovic or Ruud who triumphs today? I wasn’t particularly high on Ruud ahead of the tournament due to his form in the spring clay swing.
He won a title at the Estoril Open in Portugal and made a run to the semis of the Rome Masters last month, but he played no more than two matches in his other four clay appearances.
However, he must have been saving his best for Paris and has largely breezed his way through to a second straight final.
But while his last two wins over Holger Rune and Alexander Zverev were both very impressive, does he have the goods to pull the upset over Djokovic?
This is Ruud’s best surface, and it is the surface on which Djokovic is the most vulnerable. That only counts for so much, given how much of the battle when it comes to solving him is mental.
Just ask Tsitsipas, who was two sets up on Djokovic in the 2021 final, only to lose the final three sets without creating a single break chance after breaking him three times in the first two sets.
Therein is why, despite the pull to pick Ruud, I’m backing Djokovic to take the win here. Ruud will give it all he has, and I don’t think he will get dispatched in straight sets like he did in last year’s final, but Grand Slam glory will prove to be elusive again.
Novak Djokovic vs Casper Ruud Betting Pick: Ruud +6 games & Djokovic/Ruud over 37.5 games
Where to Bet on Novak Djokovic vs Casper Ruud
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