The women’s singles draw of the 2023 French Open has seen plenty of upsets over the course of the last two weeks, but ahead of today’s semifinals, the prospect of the top two seeds meeting in Saturday’s final remains intact.
Top seed and defending champion Iga Swiatek has yet to drop a set in the tournament. Neither has number two seed and Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka. Will we see them meet on Saturday? If we do, the number one ranking will be on the line, in addition to this year’s French Open women’s singles title.
But before we look too far ahead to a Swiatek-Sabalenka final, there’s the matter of navigating their semifinal matchups.
In the first semifinal, Sabalenka will take on unseeded Karolina Muchova, who has dropped only one set in five matches at Roland Garros. In the second semifinal, Swiatek will face #14 seed Beatriz Haddad Maia, who has won four straight three-set matches, including a quarterfinal win over 2022 finalist Ons Jabeur.
How should you bet the two matchups? Read on for our French Open women’s semifinals picks and predictions.
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Who are the best bets to move on to Saturday’s final in Paris? Before we dive into our picks, let’s take a look at odds for Muchova vs Sabalenka and Swiatek vs Haddad Maia, as well as the latest French Open women’s singles title odds.
French Open 2023 Women’s Singles Semifinals Odds
Karolina Muchova vs Aryna Sabalenka Odds
Moneyline
- Karolina Muchova +260
- Aryna Sabalenka -330
Game Spread
- Karolina Muchova +4.5 (-108)
- Aryna Sabalenka -4.5 (-122)
Total Match Games Over/Under
- Over 20.5 Games (-120)
- Under 20.5 Games (-110)
Iga Swiatek vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Odds
Moneyline
- Iga Swiatek -1700
- Beatriz Haddad Maia +890
Game Spread
- Iga Swiatek -6.5 (-130)
- Beatriz Haddad Maia +6.5 (+100)
Total Match Games Over/Under
- Over 17.5 Games (-126)
- Under 17.5 Games (-104)
Odds to Win the 2023 French Open Women’s Singles Title
- Iga Swiatek -270
- Aryna Sabalenka +240
- Karolina Muchova +1900
- Beatriz Haddad Maia +2100
French Open 2023 Women’s Singles Semifinals Predictions & Picks
Muchova vs Sabalenka Prediction & Picks
Muchova dispatched #8 seed Maria Sakkari in the first round and has kept things rolling into the second Grand Slam singles semifinal of her career.
Can she pull the upset against Sabalenka? The world number two has been challenged in her last two matches against Sloane Stephens and Elina Svitolina, but she still won both matches in straight sets.
A big reason why Sabalenka is two wins away from the number one ranking is how she has minimized the opportunities opponents have to beat her while taking advantage of the opportunities she gets to flip things in her favor.
If Muchova is to have a legitimate shot at becoming the fourth different Czech player to reach the French Open women’s singles final in the last nine editions of the tournament, she will have to keep things clean and somehow rattle Sabalenka.
Unfortunately for her, I don’t see that happening, at least not to the point where it will affect the outcome. I do think she will make things interesting though, and with that in mind, I like the match to go over 20.5 total games.
Swiatek vs Haddad Maia Prediction & Picks
Swiatek entered the French Open with a thigh injury a potential concern, but any concerns about its impact should be put to bed at this point.
She has rediscovered her dominant self at Roland Garros, losing only 15 games in five matches. Wednesday’s quarterfinal matchup with #6 seed Coco Gauff did have its challenging moments, but in the end, Swiatek still walked away with a 6-4, 6-2 win that was wrapped up in an hour and a half.
Can Haddad Maia challenge her to a level that Gauff just quite couldn’t?
This is completely new ground for the 27-year-old Brazilian, who had never made it past the second round of a Grand Slam singles draw prior to this year’s French Open. With how she has risen to the challenge to this point of the tournament, you would think she has been here a few times before.
However, this is where the ride will end for Haddad Maia. Swiatek is on fire right now, and I don’t think she will be denied in her bid to become the first back-to-back women’s singles finalist at the French Open since Simona Halep in 2017 and 2018.
That said, I do think that Haddad Maia will do her part to help the over 17.5 games hit, even if she goes down 6-4, 6-2 like Gauff did yesterday.
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