Since winning the US Open two years ago, Novak Djokovic has been on a fruitless quest for a 25th Grand Slam singles title. Will that quest continue into 2026, or will he move within a victory of ending that drought this afternoon? To reach his first Grand Slam final in 2025, Djokovic will have to find a way past Carlos Alcaraz. The Djokovic vs. Alcaraz showdown is the first of today’s US Open semifinals, with top seed Jannik Sinner meeting Felix Auger-Aliassime in the other semifinal.
This year, Djokovic and world number one Jannik Sinner are the only two men to reach the semifinals of each Grand Slam (Aryna Sabalenka is the only woman to do so).
But while Sinner went on to win the Australian Open and Wimbledon titles and reach the French Open final, Djokovic fell in the final four in Melbourne (retiring after losing the first set versus Alexander Zverev), Paris (lost to Sinner in straight sets, and London (lost to Sinner in straight sets).
For most, making four Grand Slam singles semifinals would not be a down year, but when you reached at least one final in 16 of the previous 18 years and won at least one Slam in 14 of those years, this has been a down year for Djokovic.
He will have one last crack at breaking up the dominant run that Sinner and Alcaraz have been on, but he will enter today’s match as a heavy underdog, just as he was against Sinner at Wimbledon and the French Open. Can he upset the odds? Read on for our Djokovic vs. Alcaraz prediction and picks and see which top online sportsbooks offer the best betting value for this matchup.
Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
| Player | Match Spread | Moneyline | Total Match Games Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | +5.5 (-115) | +306 | Over 37.5 (-116) |
| Carlos Alcaraz | -5.5 (-102) | -385 | Under 37.5 (+104) |
US Open Results for Novak Djokovic
- First Round: defeated Learner Tier 6-1, 7-6 (7-3), 6-2
- Second Round: defeated Zachary Svadja 6-7 (5-7), 6-3, 6-3, 6-1
- Third Round: defeated Cameron Norrie 6-4, 6-7 (4-7), 6-2, 6-3
- Fourth Round: defeated Jan-Lennard Struff 6-3, 6-3, 6-2
- QF: defeated #4 Taylor Fritz 6-3, 7-5, 3-6, 6-4
US Open Results for Carlos Alcaraz
- First Round: defeated Reilly Opelka 6-4, 7-5, 6-4
- Second Round: defeated Mattia Bellucci 6-1, 6-0, 6-3
- Third Round: defeated Luciano Darderi 6-2, 6-4, 6-0
- Fourth Round: defeated Arthur Rinderknech 7-6 (7-3), 6-3, 6-4
- QF: defeated #20 Jiri Lehecka 6-4, 6-2, 6-4
Djokovic vs. Alcaraz Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Alcaraz to win
Pick: Carlos Alcaraz -5.5 games (-102 at BetOnline)
These days, Sinner and Alcaraz appear to be firmly out front of the rest of the field in men’s tennis. That duo has accounted for the last seven Grand Slam titles.
But even though the days of dominance by Djokovic are over, his tank is clearly anything but empty.
Since his 2023 US Open final over Daniil Medvedev, Djokovic has made at least the quarters in seven of eight Slams. His only miss was last year’s US Open, in which he fell to Alexei Popyrin.
To still churn out these kinds of results at 38 is highly impressive. It’s also an indication what the field is like beyond Sinner and Alcaraz. There are certainly a lot of good players, and some, like Jack Draper and Lorenzo Musetti, have the potential to make some serious noise next year and beyond.
But there are only three truly great players in the present, and the Djokovic vs. Alcaraz matchup pits two of them against each other.
Djokovic has not been impenetrable at the US Open, having lost a set in three matches. And his road to the semifinals has not featured too much tough competition. Fritz was his toughest opponent, and while the fourth-seeded Fritz was the higher seed and the favorite, he was a favorable matchup for Djokovic.
That won’t be the case for Djokovic against Alcaraz, even though he has beaten the Spaniard in their last two head-to-head meetings and owns a 5-3 all-time advantage between the two.
This is not to say that he can’t win or that he will be brushed aside in straight sets. But with the way that Alcaraz has played to this point in the US Open, Djokovic faces a tall task to take this match to a fourth or even fifth set.
He has yet to win a set in a major semifinal this year, having lost the lone set of his Australian Open semi against Zverev and went down in straight sets against Sinner at the French Open and Wimbledon.
I do think Djokovic can take this one to a fourth set, but I don’t think that will have much of an impact on the final outcome. Alcaraz is playing at such a high level right now, and even the best that Djokovic still has left will not be enough to keep Alcaraz from reaching his second career US Open final.