For the eighth time since the inception of the Gold Cup, the USA and Mexico will tussle for the trophy. Both teams have done what they needed to do to set up a clash of CONCACAF titans, but which rival will make the right moves tonight to take the title? Read on for a Gold Cup final prediction and picks, as well as odds from top online sportsbooks.
Bet on USA vs. Mexico at the Best Online Sportsbooks
Tournament Favorites Survive and Advance to Set Up Sunday Showpiece
The USA and Mexico went into the Gold Cup as the top two favorites, even with several notable absences for both teams.
And despite some shaky moments and close shaves, they are set to renew their rivalry tonight at NRG Stadium in Houston.
Since the Gold Cup became CONCACAF’s championship tournament, the USMNT has now reached the final 13 times in 18 editions of the tournament.
Two years ago, they fell to Panama in a shootout in the semifinals, and they nearly exited in the same manner a round earlier in this year’s tournament. But after surviving a shootout against Costa Rica in the quarters, they saw off Guatemala in the semis thanks to Diego Luna’s early double strike.
That sets up another Gold Cup final matchup with Mexico, who is in the final of the tournament for the 12th time and looking to sweep CONCACAF’s top titles after winning this year’s Nations League final in March.
Mexico reached the final for the fourth consecutive Gold Cup by edging Honduras 1-0 on Tuesday. El Tri produced a fourth consecutive clean sheet, and Raul Jimenez scored the decisive goal in the 50th minute to secure safe passage to tonight’s title tilt.
USA vs. Mexico Odds
Odds are courtesy of BetOnline.
Spread
- USA +0.25 (-130)
- Mexico -0.25 (+110)
Moneyline (Regulation Only)
- USA to win +235
- Mexico to win +145
- Draw +205
Over/Under
- Over 2 (-115)
- Under 2 (-105)
To Lift the Trophy
- USA to lift the trophy +115
- Mexico to lift the trophy -140
USA vs. Mexico Prediction and Picks
Based on Gold Cup history and results in this tournament, all signs point to the under being the best USA vs. Mexico bet.
Of the first 17 Gold Cup finals, 11 went under 2.5 goals, including each of the last three.
Since opening the tournament with a 3-2 win over the Dominican Republic, Mexico has not allowed a goal. Sure, the opposition has not exactly been the best, but a clean sheet is a clean sheet, and four in a row is not something to overlook.
The USA has not kept it as tight, but Mexico has scored multiple goals against the USMNT only once in the last seven head-to-head meetings. That lone occurrence happens to be the most recent meeting between the two teams, a 2-0 friendly win for Mexico in October of last year, but in competitive matches, the last time was the Nations League final in June 2021, a 3-2 extra-time victory for the USA.
Mexico is favored here, as they should be. They have come out on top in five of the seven previous USA vs. Mexico Gold Cup finals, and they are the better team of the two in terms of squad strength.
That said, there shouldn’t be much separating the two teams given the stakes, and in what should be a tight contest, taking the USA to lift the trophy has some solid value, even if the first five games have done little to actually give a good read on what this team is and isn’t.
USA vs. Mexico Prediction: USA to lift the trophy
USA vs. Mexico Picks: USA/Mexico under 2 (-105 at BetOnline), USA to lift the trophy (+118 at Bovada) & BTTS (Both Teams to Score) – No (-145 at Bovada)
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