UEFA Champions League Picks and Predictions: UCL Returns for Matchday Three

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Gabriel leads the Gunners this year - UCL Picks

We are through two matches of the League Phase in the UEFA Champions League, and today begins matchday three. We’ve got all 36 clubs in action today and tomorrow, so we dove in and found our favorite UCL picks. There are two fairly exciting matches today as Arsenal hosts Atletico Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen hosts Paris Saint-Germain, but first let’s look at the table and how it stands.

There are six teams all tied with two wins through two matches. Bayern Munich is on the top of the table due to goal differential and goals scored, followed by Real Madrid, PSG, Inter Milan, Arsenal and FK Qarabag, who has been the surprise of the tournament thus far. Borussia Dortmund, Manchester City and Tottenham follow the top six with a win and a draw for four total points. And of course, down at the bottom, Benfica, Athletic Club, Ajax and Kairat Almaty are all searching for their first points of the UCL season (Ajax their first goal).

We have a total of nine matches slated for today, so let’s find our best bets. Head over to our UCL Picks Page for our expert’s soccer analysis on every match, or read my best bets below.

UEFA Champions League: Tuesday’s Predictions October 21

As we normally do, we will avoid the opening two matches and focus on the afternoon slate.

Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid UCL Picks

Viktor Gyokeres and the Gunners are have shutouts in 9/12 matches this year - UCL Picks

Viktor Gyokeres and the Gunners are have shutouts in 9/12 matches this year

Best Bet: Arsenal ML/Under 3.5 (+125) BetOnline

I did look at the Gunners to win to nil at +163, but opted to pair them with the under instead. The total is only listed at 2.5 so we are already probably going to get a slower paced game, plus Arsenal’s backline is phenomenal. They have five home shutouts this competition season so far, only allowing a goal to Manchester City in their draw. The Gunners also have four shutouts on the road as well.

They’ve given up just three goals across 12 matches this year, and have not allowed more than one in a match. Those goals came to Liverpool on the road (via a nasty free kick in the 83′ minute), against Manchester City (to none other than Erling Haaland), and to Newcastle at St. James Park, where they battled for an equalizer and a winner in the 84′ and stoppage time. Arsenal have two 2-0 wins in the UCL so far this season, and last year they shutout all four opponents at home in the league phase, and also did so to Real Madrid at the Emirates in the UCL Quarterfinals.

While Atletico battled when they came to Anfield, Liverpool’s defense has not come close to comparing to Arsenal’s this year. I do not expect the visitors to find the back of the net, but also don’t see them letting it get too out of hand.

Prediction: Arsenal Wins 2-0 (+600)

Villarreal vs. Manchester City UCL Picks

Haaland and Manchester City need a win on the road today in Spain - UCL Picks

Haaland and Manchester City need a win on the road today in Spain

Best Bet: Manchester City ML/Man City TT Over 1.5 (-110) BetOnline

Shoutout to BetOnline for letting us get creative with both of these juicy plays. If Manchester City scores two goals, they win this game. Plain and simple. Villarreal are not going to net more than one goal if they even find the back of the net.

Before booking this safer SGP, I looked long and hard at City to win to nil at +250, and still may or may not have sprinkled on that (I did). Villarreal lost their UCL opener to Tottenham on the road in a shutout, but drew with Juventus 2-2 in their last outing, needing a 90′ minute equalizer to earn a point at home.

Manchester City is in fantastic form and they are incredibly deep on their bench. Whomever they start will be able to get the job done for us. They are coming off two shutout wins, most recently over Everton 2-0. They beat Napoli 2-0 at home to open UCL play but drew 2-2 with Monaco after conceding a 90′ minute penalty kick. City know they should be sitting at the top of the table with two wins, and I see them coming focused to earn three points on the road in this match.

Prediction: Manchester City Wins 3-0 (+1400)

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Paris Saint-Germain: UCL Picks

Grimaldo and Bayer Leverkusen will have their work cut out for them against PSG - UCL Picks

Grimaldo and Bayer Leverkusen will have their work cut out for them against PSG

Heavy Lean: Bayer Leverkusen +0.5 (+125) BetOnline

I have not bet this, but this is where the value lies (in my opinion) in this match. Paris Saint-Germain should not be this big of a favorite on the road against this German side who may be getting overlooked.

Now, Leverkusen have not been all that impressive, but since their win over Barcelona, PSG has struggled against Lille on the road and to Strasbourg at home. The French club needed a penalty kick and a 79′ minute equalizer to salvage a point after falling down 3-1 early in the second half.

Leverkusen have won two straight and three of their last four including dominating a PSV Eindhoven team when they came to town. The Germans’s outshot PSV 14-6 overall, 4-1 on target and won the corner kick battle 7-4 as well, with the Dutch scoring on their only shot on frame. Sure, PSG might test the keeper more, but Bayer Leverkusen should come ready to batten down the hatches and hang on for dear life.

Prediction: 1-1 Draw (+700)

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