The first day of UEFA Champions League action gave us some thrilling results. We had six competitive matches, just one draw, and only two games were settled by more than a goal. On top of that, we saw two huge road upsets as well, as Union Saint-Gilloise beat PSV Eindhoven on the road, and FK Qarabag beat Benfica in Lisbon, after the hosts had an early 2-0 lead. Juventus and Borussia Dortmund kept us all entertained with an eight goal draw, while Arsenal, Real Madrid and Tottenham all earned three points with a win. Today is the second set of opening matches, so let’s get into our favorite UCL picks.
There are only six matches today in the UEFA Champions League, and we will be a bit cautious for these first couple of slates. It’s a long season ahead. However, head over to our UCL Picks Page for our expert’s soccer analysis on every match, or read my best bets below.
UEFA Champions League: Wednesday’s Predictions September 17
We are avoiding the two early matches today, as neither really moves the needle for me. However, we’ve got a few of marquee matches this afternoon that we’ve got to get into. Let’s break down our UCL picks.
Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea UCL Picks
Serge Gnabry and Bayern Munich host Chelsea today
Best Bet: Bayern Munich 1H ML (+121) BetOnline
Get in and get out with this first half play. Bayern Munich have the benefit of hosting Chelsea to open up their UEFA Champions League tournament, and I am looking for them to assert their dominance at home. They’ve had absolutely no trouble starting off early in the Bundesliga, as they sit alone on the table with a perfect 3-0-0 record. Plus last year in the League Phase portion of the UCL, they were 4-0-0 at home.
The German side has two huge home shutouts to their name already this competition season, beating RB Leipzig 5-0 and Hamburg SV 6-0 at Allianz Arena. Chelsea are still getting their feet under them, and although Cole Palmer should be back in the lineup, they are no match for Bayern in their current form.
During competitive matches this season, Bayern Munich have scored 11 first half goals, they have led at halftime in all five matches, and they have not allowed a single goal in the first 45 minutes. While I expect Chelsea to maybe play a bit conservative, being cautious of this German attack at home, they will be no match for Bayern. Munich outscored their visitors 14-3 during their four League Phase matches at home last year, and led at halftime in three of those four games.
Give me Bayern to net a couple in the first half of this match. For a full match breakdown, check out our piece below.
Prediction: Bayern Munich Wins 1H 2-0 (+725)
Liverpool vs. Atlético Madrid UCL Picks
Liverpool hosts Atlético Madrid today in the UCL
Best Bet: Liverpool ML/ Both Team To Score No (+175) BetOnline
This is the best bang for your buck in this match in my opinion. Now, BTTS No is already +110 if you’d rather just place that, but I do not see Liverpool getting shutout at Anfield, therefore I see them winning via shutout fashion. They had a rough couple of matches to start, needing late or stoppage time goals to find a couple winners, but no one can deny that this team is 4-0-0 in the English Premier League.
For starters, Atlético Madrid have not looked good at all. They are just 1-2-1 in La Liga play so far this season, but are coming off a 2-0 shutout win against Villarreal. However, they gave up a 1-0 lead in their 2-1 loss to Espanyol and in their 1-1 draws against Elche and Alavés. These are all inferior teams, Atlético should certainly be 4-0-0 in league play, and I bet they know this. However, they have a very tough task facing Liverpool at Anfield.
Liverpool Have Flipped an Internal Switch
Now, Liverpool have turned it on the past two matches. They beat Arsenal and Burnley, both by a score of 1-0, scoring on a free kick against the Gunners and on a stoppage time penalty on the road at Burnley. But I have seen major improvements from their defense.
In their opening two matches, Liverpool allowed both AFC Bournemouth and Newcastle United to score twice. On top of that, both opponents had three shots on target, 10 total attempts and seven corner kicks. That is not sustainable if you want to win the EPL or the UCL. I have my suspicions that the back line got ripped apart by management, because they have turned it on recently. Liverpool held Arsenal to just one shot on target, and did not give Burnley any. After giving up three shots on target and two goals per match in their first two, they have now allowed zero goals and just half a shot on target per match.
Look for the defense to come to play today at home, getting a much needed UCL victory to start things off. For a full breakdown of this match, check out my scribbles below.
Prediction: Liverpool Wins 2-0 (+725)
Ajax Amsterdam vs. Inter Milan: UCL Picks
Wout Weghorst has three goals for Ajax so far this season
Best Bets: Ajax Amsterdam +0.5 (+122) BetOnline
Now, if you’d rather pay around -105, you can snag +0.75, meaning you have the double chance and the +1, both priced around even money. But I’m going to get more bang for my buck and back them on the straight double chance for plus money. This burned me yesterday with Athletic Bilbao, who only competed with Arsenal for about 70 minutes before conceding two goals. But I have not been as impressed with the UCL Runner Ups this competition season.
Ajax is unbeaten in the Dutch Eredivisie standings, with three wins and two draws. While they haven’t faced the toughest competition in their home league, they have probably had this one circled since the UCL draw. Ajax are back in the Champions League after a failing to qualify the past two years, but are ready to surprise some people.
Now, let’s talk about the Italians. They were embarrassed in last season’s UCL Final, losing 5-0 to Paris Saint-Germain. They competed in the FIFA Club World Cup, but did not do well, drawing with Monterrey, winning their other two group stage matches against bad teams, but then lost to Fluminense 2-0 in the Round of 16. So far in three Serie A matches, Inter Milan beat Torino at home, lost to Udinese at home, and are coming off a seven goal thrilling loss to Juventus on the road.
I see Inter Milan playing conservative, considering they’ve allowed six goals in their past two matches. They should respect the attacking power of their hosts, causing them to sit back and let the match come to them. I certainly lean under in this contest, but I do think Ajax are able to at least earn a point at home.
Prediction: 1-1 Draw (+650)
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