Today, group stage play in the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup will conclude with the last round of matches in Group B and Group C. The standout fixture of the four on today’s slate sees Panama take on Jamaica in Group C action at Q2 Stadium in Austin, Texas.
Will Panama wrap up the top spot in the group and deny Jamaica a spot in the quarterfinals? Read on for a prediction and picks for this crucial clash.
Be sure to check out all of the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
Bet on the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup at Top Online Sportsbooks
Panama Poised for Group C Perfection
With first and second in both Group B and Group C not decided, all four of today’s Gold Cup matches carry some significance.
For Panama, the objective is straightforward after defeating Guadeloupe (5-2) and Guatemala (1-0). With a draw or a win against Jamaica, they will top the group. Depending on how the two Group B matches (Canada vs. El Salvador and Honduras vs. Curacao) play out, topping the group will mean avoiding Canada in the quarterfinals, but a potential semifinal matchup with Mexico, who will face Saudi Arabia in the quarters.
Even with a defeat, Panama could still advance and top the group. While the top tiebreakers in FIFA Club World Cup group play are linked to head-to-head results, the top tiebreakers in Gold Cup group play are overall goal difference, then overall goals scored. With a goal difference of +4 and six total goals scored in the first two rounds, Panama holds a healthy edge over Jamaica (2 GF, 2 GA, 0 GD) and Guatemala (1 GF, 1 GA, 0 GD), both of whom have three points.
Because of this tiebreaker, merely winning might not be enough for Jamaica to advance. Guatemala, who edged the Reggae Boyz 1-0, is a heavy favorite against Guadeloupe. So, even just to advance, Jamaica may need to win by three or more goals against Panama.
Panama vs. Jamaica Odds
Odds are courtesy of BetOnline.
Spread
- Panama -0.25 (-118)
- Jamaica +0.25 (-102)
Moneyline
- Panama to win +114
- Jamaican to win +242
- Draw +245
Over/Under
- Over 2.25 (-104)
- Under 2.25 (-116)
Panama vs. Jamaica Prediction and Picks
Achieving the result that they need to advance and potentially eliminate either Panama or Guatemala looks like a tall task for Jamaica, for multiple reasons.
Though they did bounce back from their narrow defeat to Guatemala with a 2-1 win over Guadeloupe, there was an element of fortune. Guadeloupe had an xG (expected goals) of 2.13, while Jamaica’s xG was just 0.79 (compared to Panama’s 4.53 xG in their win over Guadeloupe). Often, that discrepancy will not result in a victory for the team on the short end of it.
There is also a head-to-head disadvantage for Jamaica. In the last 10 matchups between these two teams, Panama holds a 6-2-2 advantage, though Jamaica did win the most recent encounter (a 1-0 victory to claim third place in the 2023-24 edition of the CONCACAF Nations League).
Since that defeat in March of last year, Panama is 9-1-1 in competitive matches against CONCACAF foes. That’s a rather robust record, especially because two wins were against the U.S. on American soil and another one was an away win over Costa Rica. For context, it must be noted that the USMNT has a total of zero all-time away wins over Costa Rica in 12 tries (10 losses and two draws).
In pre-tournament Gold Cup predictions, Panama was the pick to win Group C, in part because of that recent run of form. Their first two matches at the Gold Cup have done nothing to alter that prediction or the expectation that they will close out Group C play with a victory in Austin. They don’t need to win, but don’t expect them to be content to just see out a draw.
Panama vs. Jamaica Prediction: Panama to win
Panama vs. Jamaica Picks: Panama -0.25 & Panama ML
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