New York City FC vs. Toronto FC – MLS Picks & Predictions (7/3): Standalone Action on the Pitch

Major League Soccer is giving us a standalone match on Thursday as New York City FC hosts Toronto FC. These teams already battled once this season, with NYCFC taking down Toronto in Canada, 1-0, back in April.

Can Toronto get revenge as it’s their turn to host? Or will New York City end up on top again?

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New York City FC vs. Toronto FC Betting Odds

As I said, these teams already played with New York City getting the best of their hosts. Now at Yankee Stadium, NYCFC could earn three points, propelling them to sixth on the Eastern Conference Table.

Toronto has played five straight matches at home, and last time on the road, they took down Montreal in a 6-1 beat down. However they’ve lost on the road this season to the New York Red Bulls, FC Cincinnati, and Orlando City, so tonight could be a tough task for the visitors.

Matchup Information – NYCFC vs. Toronto – July 3

• Venue & Location: Yankee Stadium (New York City, NY)
• Date: Thursday, July 3, 2025
• Kick Off: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
• Broadcast: MLS Season Pass

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Moneyline

• New York City FC -170
• Draw +330
• Toronto FC +480

Spread

• New York City FC -1 (-106)
• Toronto FC +1 (-114)

Total

• Over 2.5 (-140)
• Under 2.5 (+114)

Ultimately, Toronto struggles to score. Their offense is very bland, unreliable, and aren’t that great at creating chances. They’ve only netted 10 goals in 19 matches this season, allowing 22 total to their opponents. So they don’t score… at all… but they at least do a decent job at playing defense.

As for NYCFC, their defense is the name of their game. They’ve only scored 24 goals and allowed 21 in their 19 matches, but at home they are a different animal.

NYC has shutout three of their last six opponents at home, outscoring their foes 10-5 in that stretch. I think they pitch another shutout tonight, and therefore, I’ll be betting on the under.

New York City FC vs. Toronto FC MLS Picks

Best Bet: Under 2.75 (-103) BetOnline

Here we go again with the Asian handicap. Reminder, our one unit bet is split into two half unit wagers. We have 0.5u on under 2.5, and 0.5u on under 3, both priced at (-103). A push and a loss are in the cards if things end at three total goals, but I have faith this one stays at two or less, cashing both our bets.

We know Toronto isn’t going to score. That I have extreme confidence in, and if you are worried about NYCFC scoring too much, take Toronto Team Total Under 0.5 (+152). Some nice plus chicken, and you don’t even need New York City to win.

However, I see NYC netting one and holding on for the rest of the match. Low scoring wins are a staple of New York City’s club character, and I see them getting another one today. You can certainly take the Under 2.5 at (+114) if you’d rather, but I’ll take the cushion with the 2.75.

Prediction: New York City Wins 1-0 (+650)

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