Nashville SC vs. Philadelphia Union Picks and Predictions: US Open Cup Semifinals

Lots of soccer action today, so what’s one more match? We’ve already had the UEFA Champions League kick off with a few wagers pending. Later this evening, we have a stand alone MLS match featuring the Seattle Sounders and Inter Miami which should be very entertaining. But we cannot forget about the US Open Cup, which is back tonight as the semifinals get going. Four teams remain, and none have lifted this trophy before, so we will crown a new US Open Cup Champion at the end of this tournament. But for now, let’s see who will reach the title match, as our first semifinal kicks off tonight, with Nashville SC taking on the Philadelphia Union. Time for us to find our favorite picks on this nationally televised match.

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Nashville SC vs. Philadelphia Union US Open Cup Betting Odds

These two Eastern Conference foes are plenty familiar with one another, so let’s look at their history and how they got here. We’ve seen two meetings this season in the MLS already. Back in March, Nashville went into Philadelphia and took down their hosts, winning 3-1 despite the Union dominating the stat sheet. Nevertheless, it was not a fluke, as Nashville beat the Union when they came to town, winning 1-0 despite being shorthanded for the final 30 minutes of the match. The hosts earned a stoppage time penalty kick to secure three points.

Now, the Union have gotten the last laugh. Philadelphia sits on top of the Eastern Conference standings in the MLS, and lead FC Cincinnati by two points with four matches to play. Nashville SC are not too far behind, sitting No. 4 in the standings just seven points out of first place. However only four points separate Nashville from Inter Miami who rank No. 8, so they need to finish strong in league play.

Would that be a reason as to why they might not come as focused as they should in this US Open Cup Semifinal? Or will their home dominance continue no matter the competition?

Matchup Information – Nashville SC vs. Philadelphia Union – September 16

• Venue & Location: GEODIS Park (Nashville, TN)
• Date: Tuesday, September 16, 2025
• Kick Off: 8:00 p.m. Eastern
• Broadcast: CBS Sports Network/ Paramount +

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Moneyline

• Nashville SC +118
• Draw +240
• Philadelphia Union +237

To Qualify for Next Round

• Nashville SC -160
• Philadelphia Union +120

Total

• Over 2.5 (-108)
• Under 2.5 (-112)

Look, Nashville is that good. Especially at home. They beat Orlando City in the Round of 16 in comeback fashion, finding a 79′ minute winner to seal a road victory, and followed it up by obliterating DC United in the quarterfinals. Their dominance at GEODIS Park cannot be ignored, but I do worry about the intangibles this Union team brings to the table.

They have now lost two straight to Nashville, and were minutes away from stealing a point on the road before they conceded a controversial penalty kick. Now they get a chance to pull of a MASSIVE upset on the road and spoil their hosts US Open Cup hopes.

It’s also worth mentioning, while neither team has lifted the US Open Cup, the Philadelphia Union have been runner ups three times (the most without a title victory), losing the final match in 2014, 2015 and 2018.

Nashville SC vs. Philadelphia Union US Open Cup Picks

Best Bet: Nashville SC/Philadelphia Union Under 2.5 (-112) BetOnline

I think Nashville wins. If you forced me to bet a side, I would put my money on the hosts, because they really are that good at home. But this is a semifinal match in a competition that means a lot to these MLS teams. Along with the hardware and prize money, bragging rights are huge for the US Open Cup victors, and neither team has been able to wear that title throughout their club’s history. This year something might change.

Now, these teams were literally a few kicks away from playing to a scoreless draw in early July, and we saw just seven combined shots on target and corner kicks. Compare this to their first meeting in March, where they had four goals, and nine combined shots on target and corner kicks. The defenses certainly stepped up and improved in that second meeting. I think we see some more of that in this semifinal contest.

GEODIS Park is a Tough Place to Play

Nashville is at home, and they will try to control the pace of this match, and I think they will be successful. The hosts will keep the ball for as long as possible, as the Union’s offense is scary, but they can’t do much without the ball. Philadelphia controlled the majority of possession in both matches already, causing me to think the hosts come out super conservative and cautious, willing to keep this game low scoring.

Regardless, I think we see a 1-0 victory either way, with my mind leaning towards the hosts. However, a scoreless or a 1-1 draw would not surprise me either. We would cash our bet with either outcome, because this is only a 90 minute wager. If things are tied, we will see extra time followed by a penalty kick shootout to decide who moves on, but in regulation, I see defense dominating, resulting in a low scoring semifinal.

Prediction: Nashville SC Wins 1-0 (+700)

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