Major League Soccer Picks and Predictions: MLS Decision Day

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Walker Zimmerman and Nashville's defense should be ready to roll this evening - MLS Picks

Saturday is Decision Day in Major League Soccer as all 30 clubs are in action across 15 matches closing out the regular season. The MLS playoffs are almost set, with just two spots remaining. We’ve found our favorite picks across the slate, so let’s get into what we’re wagering on.

We had a successful regular season, let’s end it on a high note before the playoffs!

  • MLS YTD
  • 55-53-4 (51.4%)
  • +6.91u
  • Avg Odds: +113

Head over to our MLS Picks Page for our expert’s soccer analysis, or read my best bets below.

Major League Soccer: Saturday’s Predictions October 18

A lot of these matches are meaningless to some degree, at least on one side of things. For example, the nine teams representing the Eastern Conference are already set. At this point, the bottom six clubs have been eliminated, and the rest are playing for potential seeding. That is, except for the Philadelphia Union, who have locked up the No. 1 spot regardless of Saturday’s result.

However, in the Western Conference, there are only seven teams who have solidified their spots. There are technically four teams playing for the final two spaces in the playoffs, and this is how they currently stand.

  • No. 8 FC Dallas: 41 points
  • No. 9 Real Salt Lake: 40 points
  • No. 10 Colorado Rapids: 40 points
  • No. 11 San Jose Earthquakes: 38 points

Realistically, it’s between the top three, as San Jose would need a win and both Colorado and Real Salt Lake to lose in order to move on, as only nine teams from each conference make it. The other seven teams in the West are playing for seeding, and even Vancouver could get jumped if they can’t earn a point against FC Dallas, who are in a “win and in” situation (along with Real Salt Lake). We’re in for a huge Saturday.

Nearly every match has one sided motivation, and thus some skewed lines. There are spots to take advantage of (that I think we’ve found) but there are also tons of contests it’s better to stay away from. Plus, we have two matches with no motivation on either side.

All four of those teams are eliminated, and thus have nothing to play for but pride. Technically one could argue that DC United could jump Atlanta and avoid finishing last in the conference with a win… all the more reason for me to stay away.

Nashville SC vs. Inter Miami MLS Picks

Hany Muktar and Nashville are very tough to beat at home - MLS Picks

Hany Muktar and Nashville are very tough to beat at home

Best Bet: Nashville SC/Inter Miami Under 3.5 (-150) BetOnline

I don’t mind paying this juice, but you can take under 3.25 (-116) if you’d rather, because I think you can win and push for some profit that way. This match shouldn’t have more than three goals tops.

Both teams are playing for MLS playoff seeding. Miami is fighting for the No. 2 seed, while Nashville could drop plenty with a loss and wins from teams below them. Point being, expect a highly competitive match. We saw the earlier head to head contest end 2-1 in Miami’s favor back in June in South Beach, despite Nashville not conceding a corner. At home, their back line is rock solid, and their focus should be on simply earning a point to stay ahead of the clubs lurking behind them.

Four of Nashville’s last six matches at home have stayed under 3.5, and they’ve allowed just three goals in their last six at home as well. Despite ranking No. 6 on the table, they are No. 2 in goals allowed, giving up just 40 in 33 matches. Yes, Inter Miami’s offense is the highest scoring in the MLS (by 10 goals), but they’ve been shutout or held to one goal in half of their road matches. Nashville is capable of keeping this one low scoring at GEODIS Park.

Prediction: 1-1 Draw (+625)

St. Louis City SC vs. Real Salt Lake: MLS Picks

Diego Luna and Real Salt Lake control their own fate into the MLS Playoffs - MLS Picks

Diego Luna and Real Salt Lake control their own fate into the MLS Playoffs

Best Bets: Real Salt Lake Draw No Bet (+100) BetOnline

I’ve got a unit on the draw no bet line, as well as half a unit on the outright ML at (+175). It’s real simple. Real Sale Lake control their own destiny. If they win, they are in, and they are facing a team that has nothing to play for at all. St. Louis City is not only out of playoff contention, but they are also locked in at No. 13 in the West no matter anyone else’s result, including their own.

The motivation is completely one sided, and although the hosts aren’t going to roll over and die, the visitors have everything to play for. They may be safe with a draw, but getting Diego Luna back in the attack makes them able to play more aggressive up top, and they’ll be eager to leave no doubt. Controlling their own destiny is a great spot to be in against a team they already beat this year and three of the last four times the two have gone head to head.

Prediction: Real Salt Lake Win 2-1 (+875)

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