English Premier League Picks and Predictions: Wednesday EPL Best Bets

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Arsenal and Saliba have the best back line in the world at the moment - EPL Picks

I’m not going to beat around the bush, we have absolute sucked this English Premier League betting season. However, we still have well over halfway to go, so there’s plenty of time to turn it around. Plus, the EPL is giving us six matches to get some of our coin back on Wednesday. Let’s get in to our favorite picks.

The first third of the season did not go well. I need to turn things around in that last two thirds.

  • EPL Overall YTD
  • 27-43-4 (38.6%)
  • -12.66u
  • Average Odds: +118

Tail or fade me as you wish, but below are my top bets for Wednesday’s EPL action.

Head over to our EPL Picks Page for our expert’s soccer analysis, or read my best bets below.

English Premier League: Wednesday’s Predictions December 3

Arsenal vs. Brentford EPL Picks

Viktor Gyokeres has four goals in the EPL for the Gunners - EPL Picks

Viktor Gyokeres has four goals in the EPL for the Gunners

Best Bet: Arsenal ML/Both Teams to Score No (+125) BetOnline

If the Gunners are at home, facing an inferior squad, and this parlay is plus money… we’re going to take it. End of discussion. If this bet is plus money when the Gunners host a weaker team at the Emirates, we bet this and don’t look back. History is clearly on our side, and I’m fine backing the trends.

Brentford is one of the higher scoring offenses in the EPL, especially compared to where they are on the table, but they’ve given up plenty too. Arsenal will want to keep their five point lead over Manchester City, so earning three points is a must, and they are more than capable. Defensively, the Gunners have the best back line in the world at the moment.

They’ve allowed just seven goals in 13 matches so far this EPL season and are the only club to allow less than double digits. In competitive games at home this season, Arsenal is 10-1-0. Their only non-victory was a 1-1 draw to Manchester City back in September. Other than that, they’ve earned three points in every match at the Emirates. Plus, they have eight shutout wins at home, and 14 shutouts in 21 matches in all competitions this season.

The goals they’ve allowed? One to Liverpool at Anfield, one to Manchester City, one to Newcastle in a road victory, two to Sunderland on the road, one to Tottenham, one to Bayern Munich, and one to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. All of those teams have so much more talent and class than Brentford, and I see the Gunners shutting them out today at home.

Prediction: Arsenal Wins 3-0 (+850)

Liverpool vs. Sunderland EPL Picks

Can Sunderland earn a point on the road at Anfield today? EPL Picks

Can Sunderland earn a point on the road at Anfield today?

Best Bet: Sunderland +1.25 (+106) BetOnline

Alright, let me break down the asian handicap one more time. Our one unit wager is split up into two separate bets. We have a half unit on Sunderland +1 (+106), and a half unit on Sunderland +1.5 (+106). I like this bet a lot more since we are getting plus money, so let’s break down our potential outcomes.

If Sunderland wins or earns a draw, we cash both bets. Woo hoo. If they lose by two or more, we lose both bets. Boo hoo. But, if they are able to keep it within a goal, and lose by exactly one, we push and win for a small profit given the plus odds. I have faith in Sunderland at least earning a draw, so keeping it within one should certainly happen.

Sunderland +0.5 or the double chance is +220 and is worth a half unit sprinkle it you want. As long as the visiting Black Cats earn a draw, you would profit. I’ve completely lost faith in Liverpool. They just lost at home to PSV in the UEFA Champions League and were upset 3-0 by Nottingham Forest at Anfield as well. This team has been up and down all season long, and I’ll fade them today.

Sunderland has a much better back line, allowing just 13 goals in their 13 matches, ranking tied for fifth in the EPL in that category. I see them playing extremely conservative, viewing a draw as a victory on the road at Anfield. This should result in a low scoring game, as Liverpool will struggle to find the back of the net. However, even if they do break through, we can afford a one goal loss and still profit. Despite being No. 8 on the table, Liverpool ranks in the bottom half in goals allowed, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the visitors get a cheap one early, leaving the hosts playing for an equalizer for most of the match.

Prediction: 1-1 Draw (+1000)

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