English Premier League Picks and Predictions (10/18): EPL Returns

|
Karl Darlow stays in net this weekend for Leeds United - EPL Picks

The EPL makes its return from international break this Saturday, and let me tell you, I am ready for the action. Betting on international friendlies just does not hit the same as some English Premier League matches that actually matter. Plus, we’ve had a character building betting season so far in the EPL, and I’ve been itching to dig us out of this hole. Let’s see if we can make a dent with my favorite picks this weekend.

We will always be transparent around here, and this EPL season hasn’t started that well.

  • EPL Overall YTD
  • 15-27-3 (35.7%)
  • -10.16u
  • Average Odds: +118

I’ve been a bona fide fade so far this year, but let’s see if we can turn it around.

Head over to our EPL Picks Page for our expert’s soccer analysis, or read my best bets below.

English Premier League: Saturday’s Predictions October 18

Burnley vs. Leeds United EPL Picks

Leeds United face Burnley on the road this weekend - EPL Picks

Leeds United face Burnley on the road this weekend

Best Bet: Burnley/Leeds Under 2.25 (-116) BetOnline

This match screams under (famous last words). Both teams are only scoring one goal per match through seven this EPL season, but have also allowed double digits. Against an equal caliber opponent, it’s time for both to clean up the defensive side of things. The last two head to head matches between these teams stayed under, as we saw a scoreless draw in January and a 1-0 Burnley win on the road in the second division last year. In fact, three of the last four between these clubs have seen two goals or less.

Burnley has had all three of their home EPL matches stay under 2.5, with a 1-1 draw to Nottingham Forest, a 1-0 loss to Liverpool and a 2-0 win over Sunderland. For what it’s worth, Liverpool’s goal was a stoppage time penalty kick earned with a man advantage. Leeds have scored just three away goals this year, but all came against Wolverhampton, as they were shutout at Fulham and Arsenal.

We might not see a single goal in this contest.

Prediction: Leeds United Win 1-0 (+575)

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Newcastle United EPL Picks

Can Anthony Gordon and Newcastle finally earn a win over Brighton? EPL Picks

Can Anthony Gordon and Newcastle finally earn a win over Brighton?

Best Bet: Brighton/Newcastle 1H Draw (+125) BetOnline

Now, I am on the first half draw, and the full game draw (+252) for half a unit each. Kind of taking a stab in the dark. The Magpies are No. 2 in the league in goals allowed in the EPL, giving up just five in seven matches so far. However, they are also No. 18 in goals scored, netting just six this year. Scoring and allowing less than a goal per match is a recipe for getting upset, especially on the road, but I do trust their back line to hold strong.

Brighton will be aggressive, but against Newcastle they may have some trouble finding the back of the net. Both teams should be okay with a draw, as the Magpies will have a chance to beat the Seagulls at home later in the year. Plus, Newcastle should be much more worried about hosting Benfica on Tuesday in the UEFA Champions League. Ultimately, Brighton has the talent to stay unbeaten against Newcastle, something they’ve done in five straight head to head contests. I don’t necessarily see them earning three points, but will sprinkle on the draw for a fun morning sweat.

Prediction: 1H Draw 0-0 (+195) and Full Game Draw 1-1 (+550)

Sunderland vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers EPL Picks

Sunderland host Wolverhampton this Saturday in the EPL - EPL Picks

Sunderland host Wolverhampton this Saturday in the EPL

Best Bet: Sunderland ML (+150) BetOnline

Back the hosts against the worst team in the league for good value, simple as that. Sunderland are unbeaten in four of their last five matches, they are No. 5 in the EPL in goals allowed, conceding just six in seven matches, and they are unbeaten at home. The Black Cats are 2-1-0 at home this year with one shutout, and should have no problem handling Wolverhampton.

The Wolves are still searching for their first EPL win, as they bring an 0-2-5 record into this contest. They are dead last in goals scored, netting just five in seven matches and are No. 18 in goals allowed, conceding an average of two per match this year. The hosts should know this is a spot where they can pick up three easy points, all they have to do is make it happen by handling business. I trust the new leadership in the locker room to make sure they know what’s at stake and show up accordingly.

Prediction: Sunderland Wins 2-0 (+975)

Still Want More Soccer Content?

Here at Betting News, we offer Free Expert Picks for every major sports league. We also host daily streams on our Twitch Channel with our best bets, as well as sweat out games on Playback! Be sure to tune into everything we have going on at our Youtube, TikTok, and X pages as well. Be sure to follow my personal X account as well, @Shaggy_Bets for my full daily card.

Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly

Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER