English Premier League Picks and Predictions (10/4): A Small EPL Saturday Slate

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Karl Darlow stays in net this weekend for Leeds United - EPL Picks

I can’t remember the last time we had an EPL slate this small. The English Premier League only has four slated matches for Saturday’s action, although it is headlined by a big one in Stamford Bridge between Chelsea and Liverpool. Nevertheless, we found some of our favorite EPL picks, so let me walk you through my leans and bets in each contest.

We will always be transparent around here, and this EPL season hasn’t started that well.

  • EPL Overall YTD
  • 14-20-3 (41.2%)
  • -6.37u
  • Average Odds: +107

But we’ve got a long way to go. Let’s get after it.

Head over to our EPL Picks Page for our expert’s soccer analysis, or read my best bets below.

English Premier League: Saturday’s Predictions October 4

While I do not have a bet in the Arsenal vs. West Ham United match, I lean very heavily with the Gunners to win via shutout. However I was not happy enough with the price and decided to pass, so it’s probably going to be the most sweat free -109 wager of all time. Plus I have not had success in that market this season.

Leeds United vs. Tottenham Hotspur EPL Picks

Joe Rodon and Leeds United have two shutouts this EPL season - EPL Picks

Joe Rodon and Leeds United have two shutouts this EPL season

Best Bet: Leeds United/Tottenham Hotspur 1H Under 0.5 (+193) BetOnline

Who doesn’t love to sweat an under at 7:30 a.m. eastern? Fire up the coffee and strap in. Leeds United is not the scariest team in the league, but they have two shutouts at home, leaving Everton and Newcastle United scoreless when they visited Elland Road.

After the Spurs started hot, they have barely earned points in their last two matches. Against Wolverhampton at home, they needed a stoppage time goal to tie after a scoreless first half. They also came back from down 2-0 to Bodo/Glimt in the UCL, barely earning a point on the road, again, after a scoreless draw. My thinking is that Leeds United will come out as conservative as they can, limiting the Tottenham attack in the first 45 minutes.

I do not see the Spurs being overly aggressive early on, as the last thing they will want to do is fall behind early on the road. They’ve been doing enough fighting for their life recently. All we need is a scoreless 45 minutes, which has happened in Tottenham’s last two contests and two of three Leeds matches at home.

Just to have something to sweat all game, I’ll also put a sprinkle on the draw at +250, because I don’t see either team scoring at all.

Prediction: 1H Draw 0-0 (+205) AND Full Game 0-0 Draw (+1100)

Manchester United vs. Sunderland EPL Picks

The value lies with Sunderland at Old Trafford on Saturday - EPL Picks

The value lies with Sunderland at Old Trafford on Saturday

Best Bet: Sunderland +1 (+102) BetOnline

Push potential and plus money. Music to my ears. Even with Manchester United being at home, they are overvalued in my eyes. Maybe I’m just a ManU hater (I am), but they have not impressed me in quite some time.

I have put half a unit on this, and the other half unit on the double chance (+0.5) priced at +169. Split the unit for some extra fun. I trust Sunderland’s back line a ton. They have conceded just four goals in six EPL matches this year, with only Arsenal and Crystal Palace ahead of them in the goals allowed department. Manchester United has allowed 11 in their six contests. Aside from losing to Arsenal, Man U have won their other two matches at Old Trafford, but not in a convincing manner. They needed a Burnley own goal and a stoppage time penalty from Bruno Fernandes to beat the Clarets at home, and scored both of their goals on Chelsea with a man advantage.

Neither of those wins are very convincing, and since Granit Xhaka made the move to Sunderland, the club has been completely different. He has three assists in six EPL matches for the Black Cats, and they have earned points in five of six EPL contests, losing only to Burnley away from home. Coming off a road win over Nottingham Forest, I think this club has the momentum on their side heading into Old Trafford, making them more than capable of pulling off this upset.

Prediction: 1-1 Draw (+800) OR Sunderland Wins 2-1 (+1600)

Chelsea vs. Liverpool EPL Picks

Virgil Van Dijk and Liverpool are coming off two straight losses into Stamford Bridge - EPL Picks

Virgil Van Dijk and Liverpool are coming off two straight losses into Stamford Bridge

Best Bet: Liverpool ML (+130) BetOnline

This is too good of a number to pass up in my eyes. Liverpool were off to a hot start, but have now made it back down to Earth with two straight losses. They were squeaking out wins, scoring extremely late in matches after giving up two goal leads, but nevertheless they were winning.

Sure they lost their keeper Allison Becker, but I’ll buy that bad news. The backup is plenty good and they still have a phenomenal back line, even if they’ve been iffy recently. Chelsea is plenty beat up, missing Cole Palmer up top. But they will also be without Trevor Chalobah who received a red card in their most recent loss to Brighton & Hove Albion. The Blue will have enough trouble defending the Liverpool attack as is, but without their stud CB, it will be even harder.

Give me Liverpool to get back on track with a big road win. Read my full analysis here.

Prediction: Liverpool Wins 2-1 (+900)

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