England vs. Italy Women’s EURO Picks and Predictions (7/22): Will Lionesses Get Back to Final?

We are down to our final four teams in the 2025 Women’s EURO as the semifinals begin today. Left in the tournament are the three top teams in Europe, all of whom rank in the top five of the world as well. Tomorrow, No. 2 Spain takes on No. 3 Germany, while today, No. 5 England face the last remaining dark horse, No. 13 Italy.

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England vs. Italy 2025 Women’s EURO Betting Odds

The Lionesses of England are looking to defend their title. This is their third straight tournament making the final four, but England is looking to go a couple steps further, and make their third EURO Final match since 2009. After losing to France in their opening match, the Lionesses have turned it on, winning two straight in group stage, and battling for a comeback win in PKs against Sweden in the quarterfinals.

But can they get past the Italians?

Italy went 1-1-1 in group stage, but advanced to the quarterfinals for the first time since 2013. Cristiana Girelli scored her second goal of the match in the 90′ minute against Norway to send Italy to the semis. The Italians finished as the EURO Runner Ups in 1993 and 1997, but this is their first time in the semifinals since then. Italy has never lifted the trophy and have a tough task facing the defending champions this afternoon.

Matchup Information – Italy vs. England – July 22

• Venue & Location: Stade de Genève (Geneva, Switzerland)
• Date: Tuesday, July 22, 2025
• Kick Off: 3:00 p.m. Eastern
• Broadcast: FOX

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Moneyline

• England -170
• Draw +306
• Italy +475

To Advance

• England -365
• Italy +280

Total

• Over 2.5 (-120)
• Under 2.5 (-102)

England have been scoring at will all tournament. They have netted 13 goals on nine assists this competition, and they’ve faced plenty of adversity. Not only did they make it out of the Group of Death after losing to No. 10 France to open the competition, but they also rallied against Sweden.

The Lionesses were down to Sweden just two minutes into the quarterfinals, and found that deficit grow to 2-0 just 25 minutes in. Against the No. 6 team in the world, some would’ve rolled over and died, accepting defeat. But not England. They rallied for two back-to-back goals in the 79′ and 81′ minutes to equalize and force OT.

Eventually, they won it in PKs, after the Swedes missed chances to win on the fifth and sixth kicks, failing to keep it going in round seven. I really think this English team is head and shoulders above the Italians, and I’ll be backing them today.

England vs. Italy 2025 Women’s EURO Picks

Best Bet: England TT Over 1.5 (-138) BetOnline

I don’t hate England -1 (+100) either, but in order to cash that bet, you’ll need them to score two goals. I don’t necessarily think this gets out of hand, but I do think the Lionesses find the back of the net a couple of times.

For starters, they’ve netted 12 goals in their past three matches overall. When Italy faced one of the best teams in this tournament (Spain), they allowed three goals. I think we see something similar today.

Italy does not want to get into a shootout, and with the total where it is, clearly the books think this stays low scoring. The Italian defense will hold for as long as they can, but they won’t be able to hold for the entire match. England should find a way to net at least one early in the match, and then break through for a second later.

This attack is way too good, and England will not underestimate their opponent, especially after their almost defeat in the quarterfinals. Look for the Lionesses to handle business early in this match.

Prediction: England Wins 2-0 (+650)

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