NHL Playoffs Panthers vs Lightning Picks and Odds, April 22, 2025

Brad Marchand has six assists but no goals in the postseason

We’re getting spoiled this 1st round and this matchup is a reason why. The Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning faceoff for Game 1 at Amalie Arena. They split the season series 2 games apiece.

The defending Stanley Cup champions finished the year 47-31-4 and were 3rd in the Atlantic Division. They lost their last two games of the season and went 3-6-1 in their last 10 games. One of their two losses was to the Bolts by a score of 5-1.

This Panthers offense is explosive and it’s about to be at full blast. Matthew Tkachuk will be returning from injury, and it will be the 1st time he joins the team since acquiring Brad Marchand. They ranked 15th in goals scored and 3rd in shots on goal per game but ranked 28th in shooting percentage.

They play solid defense as well. Florida ranks 7th for goals scored and 5th for shots on goal per game. This team is good on special teams, both offense and defense. They rank 13th in power play conversion and 10th on the penalty kill.

Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky expected to get the start. He went 33-19-2 in the regular season with a 2.44 GAA and a .906 save percentage. Bob is a menace when the playoffs come around, so look for him to turn it up.

Tampa looks to take Game 1 in front of the home crowd

Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point celebrate after scoring a goal.

Tampa Bay ended the year 47-27-8 and 2nd in the Atlantic Division. They lost their last game of the season to the Rangers 4-0 and went 5-2-3 in their last 10 games of the season. The Lightning are extremely good at home, but with this in state matchup – all games will probably have a big split.

Their offense if off the charts. For the 2nd year in a row, Nikita Kucherov won the Art Ross Trophy for player to record the most points. This team led the league in goals scored per game and were 2nd in shooting percentage with the 12th most shots on goal per game.

On defense, this team holds it down. They rank 4th in goals allowed and 14th in shots on goal per game. On special teams, they have the 5th best power play and 6th best penalty kill in the league. Tampa does average 4 penalties per game, so their tight penalty kill is key.

In net, we’re expected to see Andrei Vasilevskiy. He went 38-20-5 this season with a 2.18 GAA and a .921 save percentage. Vasi is a playoff monster and will be a problem, but luckily for the Panthers, they’ve faced him plenty. Let’s check out the odds and get into the picks.

Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Odds and Game Information

Panthers vs Lightning Betting Odds

Puck Line

Florida Panthers +1.5 (-250)
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+198)

Moneyline

Florida Panthers +105
Tampa Bay Lightning -126

Totals

Over 5.5 (-108)
Under 5.5 (-112)

Odds courtesy of BetOnline – Get 50% up to $1000 on your first deposit

Panthers vs Lightning Game Information

Venue: Amalie Arena, Tampa Bay, FL
Date: Tuesday April 22, 2025
Puck Drop: 8:30pm EST
TV: TVAS2, ESPN, FDSSUN, SCRIPPS

Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction and Picks

Florida Panthers forward Brad Marchand high fives his teammates after scoring a goal.

Panthers vs Lightning Picks and Predictions: Florida Panthers Moneyline (+105) Get 50% up to $1000 Deposit on BetOnline for this pick

It may seem crazy, but I think the Panthers go in there and steal the 1st game. The defending champs will finally be back to full strength on offense, and I expect them to fire. With Matthew Tkachuk back, this team has their unspoken leader.

The familiarity between the teams is a reason I think we see goals. Two of the games went over and 2 went under this year, but 2 games were also blow outs. Each team shut the other out once this season as well.

I like for Brad Marchand to record 2 or more shots on goal for -148. It’s juicy, but we’re going to drink it because of his history vs Tampa when playing in Boston. He has hit the number in his last 5 games vs the Lightning and 11 out of his last 12 games vs them.

Give me the return of Matty Tkachuk as well. His 3 or more shots on goal is priced at -125 and that is a steal. This guy is going to come back fired up and is already a huge piece of this offense. There’s no reason he doesn’t pick up right where he left off.