NHL Lightning vs Leafs Picks and Odds, January 20, 2025

Nice sized slate today and another divisional matchup. The Tampa Bay Lightning will take on the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena. These 2 teams met at the end of November and the Leafs won 5-3.

Tampa Bay is 25-16-3 this season and 3rd in the Atlantic Division. They’re currently won their last 2 games and are 5-4-1 in their last 10 games. On the road, they’re pretty much even with a 10-10-2 record. The Lightning struggle in divisional game where they have a 3-6-0 record.

This is a heavy offensive team. They lead the league in goals scored and are 15th for shots on goal per game. Tampa also has one of best players in the league in Nikita Kucherov. Although they lost long time captain Steven Stamkos, the Lightning added Jake Guentzel who is another offensive weapon.

On defense, top defenseman Victor Hedman was name captain. The team is middle of the road ranking 10th for goals allowed and 21st for shots on goal allowed per game. They have good special teams both on offense and defense. Their power play is 4th best and their penalty kill is 8th best in the league.

Backup goalie Jonas Johansson will be getting the start tonight. He’s 5-3-1 this season with a 3.18 GAA and a .903 save percentage. Toronto could have their way with him if the Tampa defense doesn’t back him.

Toronto will try to win 3 in a row at home tonight

Leafs forward William Nylander takes a shot on net at Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Toronto is having a great year so far. They’re 29-16-2 so far and 1st in the Atlantic Division. The Leafs are on a 2-game winning streak and are 7-3-0 in their last 10 games. They play well in the division with a 10-4-1 record.

This team has massive offensive weapons in guys like Matthews, Nylander and Marner. They rank middle of the road on paper for goals scored and shots on goal per game. Their shooting percentage is 10th in the league, so they’re making their shots count.

You have to be able to play 2-way hockey and the Leafs do a decent job. They allow a decent number of shots on net per game, but they rank 11th in goals allowed. Their special teams are decent as well on both sides of the ice.

Goalie Joseph Woll will be in net for the Leafs. He is 16-8-0 this season with a 2.68 GAA and a .907 save percentage. He will be tested tonight against this fast, Lightning offense. Let’s check out the odds and get into the picks.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Odds and Game Information

Lightning vs Leafs Betting Odds

Puck Line

Tampa Bay Lightning +1.5 (-235)
Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 (+180)

Moneyline

Tampa Bay Lightning +110
Toronto Maple Leafs -130

Totals

Over 6.5 (-105)
Under 6.5 (-115)

Odds courtesy of BetOnline – Get 50% up to $1000 on your first deposit

Lightning vs Leafs Game Information

Venue: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Date: Monday January 20. 2025
Puck Drop: 7:30pm EST
TV: FDSSUN, NHL Network

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction and Picks

Toronto Maple Leafs Auston Matthews celebrates his goal with teammates.

Lightning vs Leafs Picks and Predictions: Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline (-130) Get 50% up to $1000 Deposit on BetOnline for this pick

I’m going with the Leafs here. They’re playing well as of late and play well at home. It’s going to be a battle, don’t get me wrong, but I think they’ll control this game and get the W.

With the Lightning also not starting Vasi, it really gives the Leafs the edge as well. Tampa commits a good number of penalties per game which will give Toronto the opportunities they need. Their power play is decent, ranking 16th in the league.

The Leafs will be without John Tavares, who is out due to a lower body injury. It makes me lean heavier on Auston Matthews in this game. He hasn’t been hitting his shots consistently, but he has scored 4 goals in his last 3 games. I’m going to ride the hit hand here and take him to score for +100.

For a total, I lean to the over. Toronto just put up 7 goals on the Canadians the other night, so they’re obviously clicking. We know Tampa can score as well, so I think we see a lot of fun tonight.