Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks
It appears the Commanders will get starting quarterback Jayden Daniels back on Sunday night when they host the Seattle Seahawks.
Washington has dropped four of its last five games, including a current three-game losing streak. Snapping that skid won’t be easy against a Seattle team coming off its bye week and riding a stretch of four wins in its last five outings.
Let’s break down how these teams match up and explore the best betting angles in my Washington Commanders vs. Seattle Seahawks preview and picks.
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Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks NFL Betting Insights
Can Sam Darnold shine under the Sunday Night Football lights?
Commanders vs Seahawks Preview
Sam Darnold has been a prolific passer this season, ranking top-five in EPA, success rate and CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected).
On the other hand, Jayden Daniels has been below average in all three categories. Regression from his outstanding rookie season seemed inevitable, and that’s exactly what we’ve seen play out so far.
Through five starts, Daniels has completed just 61% of his passes for 1,031 yards, eight touchdowns and one interception. His mobility remains a weapon – he’s scrambled 44 times for 211 yards and one rushing score this season.
Coming off an injury and facing this Seattle defense may be one of the tougher tests of his year. The Seahawks rank seventh in success rate and eighth in EPA per play allowed. They also sit third in yards per play allowed (4.7) and fourth in red zone defense (50%).
Conversely, Darnold will be facing a mediocre Washington defense that’s giving up the second-most yards per play (5.9) – a number that’s climbed to 6.5 over their last three games. The Commanders also rank 26th in red zone defense (64.3%), 24th in EPA per play allowed and 15th in success rate.
Washington vs Seattle Picks
On paper, the Seahawks certainly appear to be the right side. However, catching points with a healthier Commanders team that’s desperate for a win is tough to go against.
With the total moving up to as high as 48.5, I lean strongly toward the under. Seattle’s defense has been fantastic, and when you pair that with Washington’s offensive struggles, this projects as a lower-scoring affair. Plus, Darnold has shown tendencies to regress, and if Seattle can establish the run, they’ll stick with it – chewing up clock and limiting explosive plays in the process.
I’ll wait a bit longer to see if the over continues to draw money, then look to grab the under at its peak.
As for a player prop, I’d consider Jayden Daniels over 39.5 rushing yards. The number feels a bit light, even though Seattle boasts a stout run defense – first in rush EPA, fifth in rush success rate allowed, and surrendering just 3.3 yards per carry (fewest in the NFL). But those metrics don’t always translate the same against mobile quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs have scrambled just 23 times for 120 yards against the Seahawks, though the only true dual-threat they’ve faced was Kyler Murray, who ran five times for 41 yards. Even C.J. Stroud managed 25 yards on just two attempts.
Daniels averages 8.8 rushes per game at 4.8 yards per attempt, and he should be on track to clear this number – especially against a strong defense that’s likely to limit his throwing options and force him to generate offense with his legs.
Best Bet: Jayden Daniels Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
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