Washington Commanders vs Denver Broncos
Sunday Night Football in NFL Week 13 features a matchup between the 3-8 Washington Commanders and the 9-2 Denver Broncos. Sportsbooks opened Denver as 7-point favorites with a total of 43.5. Since then, the Broncos have shifted down to -6.5, while the total has held steady at 43.5 – though a few books have dipped to 43.
Let’s take a look at how these teams match up with my Washington Commanders vs Denver Broncos Sunday Night Football preview.
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Washington Commanders vs Denver Broncos Preview & Predictions
Will we see some Marcus Mariota magic on Sunday night?
Commanders vs Broncos Preview
Amassing a record like Denver has is no easy feat, and the Broncos deserve credit. However, that doesn’t mean we need to label them anything close to legitimate Super Bowl threats. While they’re finding ways to win, it hasn’t been in assuring fashion – especially on the offensive side.
Sean Payton’s offense sits 16th in EPA per play and 29th in success rate. Bo Nix has this group ranked 30th in dropback success rate. The second-year quarterback hasn’t come close to the sophomore surge many expected. He’s completing only 61% of his passes and has topped 300 yards just once all season. He’s thrown for 2,421 yards with an 18–8 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
He also hasn’t scrambled nearly as much as he should, despite that being one of his most effective traits. He’s averaging 4.3 yards per attempt on the ground, but has only 50 rushes for 213 yards and three touchdowns.
Among 32 qualified quarterbacks this year, Nix ranks 30th in success rate, 25th in CPOE and 19th in EPA per play.
The Broncos also average the most penalties per game (8.5) and own a -3 turnover differential.
So while the nine wins the Broncos have put together is impressive, it’s mainly because they’ve managed to scrape out games despite their obvious flaws.
The foundation of this team is its defensive prowess. Denver sits first in success rate, opponent red-zone efficiency (35.7%) and yards per play allowed (4.4). They also rank fourth in EPA per play allowed.
That’s the biggest discrepancy on the field Sunday night.
Washington’s defense is dead last in yards per play allowed (6.3), and that number has climbed to 7.5 over their past three games. They rank 30th in EPA per play, 27th in success rate and 24th in red-zone efficiency (61%).
It’s been a rough year for Dan Quinn’s Commanders, who have dealt with injuries all season – most notably to starting quarterback Jayden Daniels. He’ll remain out, so Marcus Mariota gets his sixth start.
Mariota has thrown for 1,065 yards on 92-of-140 passing (65.7%) with a 7–5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s added 193 rushing yards on 27 attempts with one rushing score.
Mariota has been serviceable, but he’s rarely the reason a team wins. He can keep things steady if he avoids mistakes, but he needs strong support elsewhere – especially from his defense. And asking this Washington unit to elevate against one of the league’s best defenses is a tall task.
Washington vs Denver Predictions
Despite the clear gap between these two defenses, I agree with the market movement. At +7, I would’ve leaned toward grabbing the home underdog. Maybe we’ll get another chance in-game to take Washington over the key number of seven, but until then, I’m staying away from a side.
I expect the Broncos to find a way to win, but I don’t think it’ll come easy – just like most of their wins this season.
This is the Commanders’ final big game of the year. It’s a primetime showcase, and they have a real chance to play spoiler and throw a wrench into the AFC postseason race if they can pull off an upset. Washington’s offense, outside of Jayden Daniels, has also gotten healthier with key reinforcements returning. Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, Treylon Burks and Zach Ertz are all available.
I’m expecting a closer, lower-scoring matchup – and, most importantly, an inspired effort from Dan Quinn’s crew on Sunday night.
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