Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears Predictions & Props (10/13): Will the Bears Bounce Back in Washington?

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Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears: It’s been nearly a full year since the Chicago Bears and their fans endured one of the most crushing defeats in franchise history. 351 days ago, the direction of their season shifted completely – a moment that changed everything.

At the time, rookie quarterback Caleb Williams had been struggling for most of the game, but he managed to piece together a strong drive that appeared to give the Bears a game-winning touchdown. It was a moment of pride – Chicago finally had a quarterback who could come through in the clutch.

But that feeling didn’t last long. Jayden Daniels launched a last-second Hail Mary that somehow found its way into the end zone. The ball bounced off the hands of several Bears and Commanders players before falling right into the lap of Noah Brown, who had been standing just behind the scrum waiting for a miracle.

To make matters worse, Bears defensive back Tyrique Stevenson wasn’t even in position to make a play. Instead of joining the pile or getting behind Brown to knock the ball away, he was busy taunting the crowd as the play unfolded. You couldn’t script a more painful ending – it was another gut punch in the long, brutal history of being a Bears fan.

As a die-hard supporter, I can tell you that in that moment, every fan, myself included, felt sick to their stomach. The emotions were a mix of anger, disbelief, depression and pure heartbreak – a swing from the highest of highs to the lowest of lows in just a few seconds.

In the moment, it felt like all was lost. But in the long run – believe it or not – that gut-wrenching defeat may have been one of the best things to happen to this franchise. The loss fractured the locker room, sparked a 10-game losing streak, and ultimately forced the Bears to do something they had never done before: fire their head coach midseason.

Hiring Matt Eberflus was questionable from the start, but firing him was a necessity. Now, brighter days appear to be ahead. With an  offensive mastermind in Ben Johnson taking over, there’s already a noticeable difference – not only in the team’s on-field performance, but in the players’ mentality throughout the locker room.

Yes, it’s a revenge game for Chicago, but the Commanders know what’s coming. This matchup means plenty for Washington as well. Jayden Daniels has missed a couple of games this season, and the Commanders enter at 3-2 in a competitive NFC East. They’ll look to defend their home turf in prime time, though they may have to do it without a few key weapons.

Let’s dive into how I expect this game to play out and where the betting edge may lie with my Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears predictions and props.

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Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears NFL Betting Insights

 

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Will Jayden Daniels be able to overcome the Bears without some of his top weapons?

Commanders vs Bears Predictions: As mentioned earlier, the Commanders enter this matchup short-handed. Star receiver Terry McLaurin is out, as is last year’s game-winning hero, Noah Brown. To make matters worse, fellow wideout Deebo Samuel is questionable, and if he can’t go, it could be a long night for Jayden Daniels and the Washington offense.

Chicago, on the other hand, is about as healthy as they’ve been all season coming off their bye week. The only notable concerns are kicker Cairo Santos and tight end Colston Loveland, who are both listed as questionable.

In the betting market, Washington sits as roughly a 5.5-point favorite, with the total ranging from 49.5 to 50. The Commanders opened -4.5 with a total of 48.5, so we’ve seen early money backing the home team and the over leading into kickoff.

That support in the betting market isn’t surprising. The Commanders are the better team on paper, ranking seventh in offensive EPA per play and eighth in success rate. They’ll be facing a Bears defense that sits 18th in EPA per play allowed and 30th in success rate allowed. Chicago is also surrendering the most yards per play (6.7) and yards per rush attempt (6.1) in the NFL. Even without some of their key pieces, Washington should still be able to move the ball efficiently against one of the league’s weakest defenses.

On the other side, Chicago enters this matchup at 2-2, though they really should be 3-1 if not for the season-opening collapse at home against J.J. McCarthy. It was a game that just about any other team in the league would’ve finished off.

Regardless, this is still a team with plenty of flaws. This season is about adapting to Ben Johnson’s culture and getting the offense fully integrated into his system. If Chicago continues to show clear signs of progress and maturity, the year should be viewed as a success – even if they finish below .500. So far, this new-look offense is averaging 25.3 points per game, a significant jump from last season’s modest 18.2 points per game.

Williams is set to face a respectable Commanders’ defense that sits 9th in success rate and 15th in EPA per play allowed, though they do rank last in opponent yards per completion allowed at 11.8. Outside of that stat, you’d be hard-pressed to find many concerns on that side of the ball.

Even as a die-hard Bears fan, I always look at their games objectively. It’s clear that Ben Johnson is already changing the environment within this organization, and that shift should help keep them competitive in plenty of games. That said, it’s also obvious that Chicago still has one of the league’s worst defenses, and that’s going to continue to haunt them throughout the season.

It’s a bit surprising to see the spread remain tilted toward Washington despite its injury issues. I suppose the expectation is likely that Deebo Samuel will suit up, and that, paired with rookie running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt, tight end Zach Ertz, and wide receiver Luke McCaffrey, should be enough to exploit Chicago’s defense.

However, I’d still lean toward taking the points with Chicago. Caleb Williams has proven to be a gamer who can keep his team within the number if the Commanders leave the back door open late. The Bears have enough offensive firepower to score when needed, and they’re carrying a major chip on their shoulder heading into this one. I’d also lean toward the over in this matchup.

But, my best bests are going to revolve around the prop market…

Washington vs Chicago Props: While some may view Washington’s injuries as a setback, I see them as an opportunity to back players who’ll see an uptick in usage. Let’s start in the backfield with rookie running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt.

He draws a favorable matchup against a porous Chicago run defense, but my focus is on his involvement through the air. The Bears are allowing opposing running backs to average 4.8 receptions and 30.3 receiving yards per game. With multiple downfield weapons sidelined, Jayden Daniels could rely more on short, quick throws to Croskey-Merritt.

Over his last two games, JCM has recorded two receptions in each – totaling 10 yards against Atlanta and 39 against the Chargers. Whether it’s designed screens or simple checkdowns, his role in the passing game should expand tonight, making over 1.5 receptions a strong look.

Another angle I’m targeting in the Commanders’ passing game involves veteran tight end Zach Ertz. Chicago has shown plenty of vulnerability against tight ends, allowing the position to average 7.3 receptions and 52 receiving yards per game.

Most notably, Dak Prescott and Jake Ferguson carved up this defense earlier in the season – Ferguson was targeted 14 times, catching 13 passes for 82 yards. Again, considering Washington is missing some downfield weapons, Ertz should see a healthy uptick in targets, putting him in a strong position to surpass 27.5 receiving yards tonight.

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