We’re entering Week 4 of this young NFL season, and the futures markets are heating up – especially in the “first coach fired” department. Let’s take a look at the updated NFL futures odds for the first coach fired.
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After Week 1, I broke down the odds for this exact bet. Back on Saturday, September 13th, here’s how BetOnline had them listed:
- Mike McDaniel (-400)
- Brian Daboll (+650)
- Kevin Stefanski (+700)
- Dave Canales (10/1)
- Brian Callahan (10/1)
At the time, I mentioned Brian Daboll (+650) and Brian Callahan (10/1) as worth considering. Looking back, I wish I had locked in Callahan.
Fast-forward to now, and here’s how the current BetOnline odds stack up:
- Mike McDaniel (MIA): -250
- Brian Callahan (TEN): +125
- Brian Daboll (NYG): +450
- Raheem Morris (ATL): +1400
- DeMeco Ryans (HOU): +2200
- Kevin Stefanski (CLE): +2200
- Brian Schottenheimer (DAL): +2500
- Dave Canales (CAR): +3300
- Kellen Moore (NO): +5000
- Jonathan Gannon (ARI): +6600
- Mike Vrabel (NE): +10000
Can Mike McDaniel stay employed throughout this season?
Outside of the top three, there’s not much value. Jonathan Gannon could absolutely coach his way out of a job, but that feels like a post-season decision at the earliest.
As for Mike McDaniel, his leash likely lengthened after their competitive showing in Week 3, on Thursday Night, against Buffalo. Despite losing by 10, Miami actually had a chance to win before Tua Tagovailoa’s late interception. Owner Stephen Ross has publicly backed McDaniel, and with the Dolphins laying -2.5 at home on Monday night against the Jets, this could be the week Miami finally breaks through.
Brian Daboll also bought himself some time in New York by officially naming rookie Jaxson Dart the Giants’ starter. The move was inevitable given the brutal early schedule and Russell Wilson’s decline. Now, Daboll has the quarterback he hand-picked ready to develop for the rest of the season. He’s still viewed as a respected offensive mind and has been dealt a tough hand. Unless Dart somehow performs worse than Wilson – which would be hard to imagine – Daboll should be safe for now.
That leaves Brian Callahan as the clear bet. Yes, it stings not grabbing him at 10/1 earlier, but hindsight is always 20/20.
While the 0-3 start doesn’t help, the bigger problem is Brian Callahan’s inability to coach a sound game. He’s already had moments where he didn’t know the rules on a catch, mismanaged the clock at the end of halves, and bungled field goal situations.
There’s been a handful of awful decisions from Callahan, both strategically and in terms of offensive play-calling. Those duties, by the way, are no longer under his jurisdiction. After being outscored 94-51, he’s handing them over to quarterbacks coach Bo Hardegree – and that kind of move is often the first step toward a coach getting fired.
It won’t get any easier for the Titans either, with a trip to Houston to face a desperate division rival, followed by road games in Arizona and Las Vegas.
Even though the price isn’t nearly as appealing as it was before, Callahan remains the correct bet in this market.
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