Happy Thanksgiving. We’ve got a beautiful looking slate to go along with our Thanksgiving Day feast so let’s jump right into it. Here my favorite touchdown scorers on Turkey Day.
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George Pickens Anytime Touchdown (+150) | BetOnline
Pickens has more receiving yards this year than the entire Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver room. That’s not important for this matchup but it felt like it needed to be said. George is 2nd in the NFL in endzone targets, 4th in redzone targets and has scored in 7 of the Cowboys 11 games this year. He’s already set a career high for touchdowns this year and now he’s just adding to the tally.
Pickens has now scored in back to back games and this week will face one of his toughest matchups of the year. The Chiefs rank 11th in pass yards allowed, 2nd in receiving yards allowed to WRs and 5th in touchdowns allowed. The defense is giving up just 18.3 points per game (4th) and have the 10th best redzone defense.
Everything I just said would normally have me looking elsewhere, but the Cowboys are coming in as short dogs at home and this is the highest total on the board. This also happens to be the only non-divisional game today, with both teams coming in off a short week. Two teams that are unfamiliar with each other, off short week’s of practice with minimal time to prepare.
Dak’s thrown 2+ touchdown passes in 7 of his 11 games this year, including 3+ in 5 of their last 8 games. Pickens has 8 of Dak’s 23 passing touchdowns and leads the team in touchdowns, targets, yards and receptions. He’s averaging 95.8 yards per game and has already cross the 1,000 yard mark just 11 games into the year.
Both teams come into this one off big comeback wins in Week 12 and look to build on that momentum here on Turkey Day.
Christian Watson Anytime Touchdown (+200) | BetOnline
Green Bay’s wide receiver room is one of the toughest to read in the NFL and with every receivers healthy constantly in question, it doesn’t get any easier. Watson’s now played in five games this year after returning from a torn ACL he suffered in January. He’s played a full compliment of snaps in his last 3 games and has garnered 4+ targets in every game since his return.
Last week against the Vikings, Watson recorded just 49 yards through the air, but he did lead the Packers with 7 targets and 5 receptions. He’s scored two touchdowns this year, both coming against the Giants in Week 11. The Lions rank 26th in touchdown passes allowed and have allowed 8 of the L11 QBs they’ve faced to pass for 2+ touchdowns. The Lions have given up just 5 rushing touchdowns to opposing backs this year but have given up 20 total touchdowns through the air.
The Lions have also allowed five of the L7 WR1s they’ve gone up against to score a touchdown, giving up a total of 7 touchdowns in that timeframe. Lastly, the Lions run the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL. Love ranks 2nd in passing grade against man coverage and Watson ranks 13th in the league with 2.56 yards per route run against man coverage.
Lastly, Watson’s played in just five games and only in three did he see a full compliment of snaps. Despite playing half the games of his teammates, he’s 2nd in targets of 20+ yards (8) and has the team’s only touchdown through the air of 20+ yards.
Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown (+120) | BetOnline
We’re getting chalky with this one. The Bengals rank dead last in touchdowns allowed to opposing TEs, allowing a total of 13 touchdowns to the position. Cincinnati’s given up 23 touchdowns through the air this year, 13 to TEs, 6 to WRs and 4 to opposing RBs.
The Bengals are also giving up 3.9 touchdowns per game (32nd) and the Ravens offense is starved for some redzone success. Over the team’s last three games, they’ve converted just 37% of their redzone trips into touchdowns and if that’s going to change; it starts with Mark.
Andrews is 2nd on the team in target share (16.7%) but 1st in redzone target share (27.3%). Mark’s also seen a 44% first read target share in the redzone, third highest among all pass catchers in the NFL. Get right spot for the Ravens offense, so I’m look for Marky Mark to rumble in for six.
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