Happy Tuesday. We’ve got a small three game slate in the NBA and I’ve got three props I love on the board. Let’s jump straight into them.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page, here.
Franz Wagner 24.5 Points (-110) | BetOnline
The emergence of Franz Wagner over the last two years has been so much fun to watch. Wagner’s averaging 23.0 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game this year; his third straight year averaging over 20+ points per game. He’s shooting 47.1% from the field and has increased his 3-point percentage from 29.5% last year, to 35.4% so far through 18 games this year.
Orlando sputtered out of the gates, losing 4 of their first 5 games this year. Since then, the team’s gone 9-4, even winning games without their other star; Paolo Banchero. In games without Paolo this year, Franz is averaging 24.0 points per game, shooting 46.4% from the field and seen a 26.5% usage rate.
Franz is scoring 27.8% of the team’s points and taking 42.5% of the team’s free throw attempts in these six games. Philly ranks 17th in points allowed this year, 30th in opponent fast break points, 18th in opponent points off turnovers and 14th in opponent points in the paint. Franz leads the Magic in fast break points, points in the paint and points off turnovers.
Franz has 22 points against the Sixers earlier this year, shooting 8/12 and getting to the line for 8 free throw attempts. Paolo scored 32 in that game and the Magic lost by double digits. In three games against the Sixers last year, Franz scored 30+ each time; all without Banchero in the lineup. Wagner’s averaging 26.8 points per game in his L20 without Banchero, shooting 46% and taking nearly 20 shot attempts per game.
Kawhi Leonard o20.5 Points (-110) | BetOnline
In his first game back from the injury, Kawhi played 26 minutes, scored 20 points and the Clippers got blown out by the Cavaliers. The game ended with the Cavaliers winning by just 15 but both Kawhi and Harden left the game early once it got out of hand.
Tonight the Clippers are back in Los Angeles, albeit not in their home arena. The Clippers take on the Lakers at their old arena tonight and this line for Kawhi simply feels too low. I’m expecting Kawhi to play a full compliment of minutes, despite the 10 games missed. The Lakers represent an important divisional/inner-city rivalry and the Clippers don’t play again till Friday.
Kawhi’s averaging 23.7 points per game this year and he’s cleared this line in 4 of his 7 games this year; all 3 misses coming when he played fewer than 31 minutes. Leonard’s shooting 50% from the field and 42.5% from beyond the arc. Last year he played the Lakers four times, but only two without a minutes restriction. He recorded 21 and 33 points in those two games and shot 53% from the field across all four.
If Leonard sees anywhere from 29-32 minutes, this should
Dyson Daniels o24.5 PRA (+100) | BetOnline
Of course we’re going back to Dyson. Daniels has become one of my favorite guards to bet on since he arrived here in Atlanta and it’s because Vegas still continues to undervalue what he brings on a nightly basis.
Washington’s currently fourth in pace and 30th in points allowed. That’s a recipe that’ll allow your opponents to score a ton of points and it’s why the Wizards also 29th in assists allowed and 30th in rebounds allowed. Faster pace leads to more shots, leading to more points, assists and missed shots. Those missed shots make for more rebounding opportunities and this Wizards team also happens to rank 30th in opponent offensive rebound rate.
Washington ranks 29th in opponent offensive rebounds and 24th in opponent 2nd chance points. Daniels is averaging 9.9 points, 5.7 assists, and 6.2 rebounds per game this year. He’s done a great job on the offensive glass, averaging 2.1 offensive rebounds per game and all his numbers see a significant boost with Trae out of the lineup.
Daniels is averaging 11.6 points, 6.7 assists and 6.2 rebounds per game this year without Trae, even shooting 53% from the field. Tonight in a high paced game with the Wizards, I’m expecting Dyson get out in transition and take advantage of this 28th ranked paint defense for the Wizards. Over 80% of Daniels buckets this year have come in the paint and that’s exactly where the Wizards have struggled the most.
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