Big divisional matchup in the AFC South this week. We’ve got the Houston Texans rolling into Tennessee after a huge 19-point comeback against the Jaguars in Week 10. The Titans are coming off their bye week and should at least be rested for this one. Let’s jump into it.
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Game Information
Even on one of the Worst offenses in football, Cam Ward has been slinging it
Matchup Information
- Location:Nissan Stadium; Nashville, Tennessee
- Date: Sunday, November 16th, 2025
- Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Houston Texans: Davis Mills (2024 – n/a)
- Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward (2024 – n/a)
Betting Odds
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
No Music, in Music City
The Titans haven’t been good this year, there’s no sugar coating it. The offense ranks dead last in points, third down coversion rate, first downs, 31st in pass yards, rush yards and redzone efficiency. The team’s averaging just 4.0 yards per play (31st) and have turned the ball over 13 times (24th). Tennessee’s scored more than 20 points just once this year, tallying 22 points in their 1-point win over the Cardinals.
Defensively, it doesn’t get any better. The defense ranks 29th in points allowed, 24th in opponent third down conversion rate, 27th in opponent rush yards and 26th in opponent yards per play. They rank 30th in touchdowns allowed per game and have allowed two or more passing touchdowns in three straight games; giving up a total seven touchdowns through the air.
The #1 overall pick’s struggled in his rookie year, but a majority of that can be blamed on the team around him. The Titans fired their head coach a month ago, their offensive line has been one of the worst in the NFL and his receivers have continue to drop balls. Tennesse’s focus is now developing their young QB and looking toward next year to see how they can help construct a winning roster around him.
Scary Hours in Houston
The Houston Texans have won of the scariest front sevens in all of football. With Will Anderson Jr. and Dannielle Hunter on the edges, they have been terrorizing opposing quarterbacks.
The two have combined for over 90 pressures, 14.5 sacks and 18 tackles for a loss. The tandem both rank in the top 10 for pass rush grade, pressure rate, pass rush win rate and QB hurries. Even when the Texans don’t blitz, they’re getting to the QB with ease and it’s because of these two.
The defense ranks #1 in points allowed, 3rd in opponent third down conversion rate and first downs, 4th in opponent pass yards, 2nd in opponent rush yards and opponent yards per play. Houston’s got the 4th most takeaways this year, forcing 5 fumbled and grabbing 10 interceptions to boot.
Offensively, the team’s been mediocre and it’s because of the poor offensive line play. Stroud’s been sacked 17 times this year and just hasn’t had the time to get the ball away. Over the last couple weeks however, the offensive line’s been a little bit better. They’ve given up just six sacks over the last three weeks and this week they’ll face a Titans pass rush that really hasn’t generated a ton of pressure. .
Davis Mills will once again get the start for Houston with Stroud still out with a concussion. Mills finished with 292 yards through the air and two passing touchdowns, but did have one interception. The team overcame a 19-point 4th quarter deficit, scoring 26 unanswered points in the the last frame.
Sunday’s Best Bets
Nico Collins o72.5 Receiving Yards (-110) | BetOnline
Nico Collins has 40 receptions on the year for 550 yards and three touchdowns. He’s dealt with inconsistent QB play and now he’ll take the field for a second straight week with the back up QB; Davis Mills.
This year Collins is averaging 68.8 yards per game and seeing 9.0 targets per game. He’s seeing a 23% target share this year and that bumped up to 32% last week with Mills. Collins also sees a 26.7% target rate against zone defense this year and while the Titans do mix it up on defense, they’re still running the 14th highest rate of zone coverage.
Tennessee ranks 27th in receiving yards allowed to wideouts this year and Collins’ is no easy cover. He’s had 36 targets over the last three weeks and saw a 31.3% first read target share with Mills under center. Collins finished the day with 15 targets, 7 catches and 136 yards receiving. Look for Nico to have a similar impact this week.
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