Big matchup for second place in the AFC South. The Jaguars host the Texans this week, both team’s looking to leave the game with a winning record. Let’s jump right into it.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: EverBank Stadium; Jacksonville, Florida
- Date: Sunday, September 21st, 2025
- Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud (10-7; 2024 – 219.2 YPG | 20 TD | 12 INT)
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence (2-8; 2024 – 204.5 YPG | 11 TD | 7 INT)
Betting Odds
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Analysis & Breakdown
Growing Pains
Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars could easily be 2-0 to start the year. The Jags dismantled the Panthers in Week 1 and held a 3-point lead with just over a minute left in their Week 2 matchup with the Bengals. Jacksonville’s put up 53 points through two games so far this year and currently lead the league in rushing yards with 339 yards on the ground. It’s their aerial attack that needs work.
Through two weeks, Lawrence is completing just 59% of his passes, he’s thrown for 449 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions. The connection between Lawrence and second year wideout Brian Thomas Jr. is something everyone’s been waiting to see develop. Thomas Jr. currently leads the Jaguars with a 27% target share, seeing 19 targets through two games; despite only eight being ‘catchable’ targets. Over 50% of Lawrence’s incompletions this year have been on passes to Brian Thomas Jr. and it’s something the Jaguars will need to rectify, sooner rather than later.
Let’s take a quick second and talk about Travis Hunter. Hunter’s seen limited snaps so far on the defensive side of the ball but sits second amongst the team’s cornerbacks in coverage grade and second in targets among the team’s receivers. He’s doing a bit on both sides of the ball but hasn’t exactly left a lasting impression on either side yet.
Houston, We Have a Problem
The Houston Texans have scored just 28 points through the first two games of the season. In Week 1 the Texans ran into a formidable Rams defense, recording just nine points in their season opener. In Week 2 the Texans hosted the Buccaneers and failed to crack 20 points. Stroud’s averaging under 200 yards per game so far this season and he’s thrown just one touchdown and one interception.
The third year QB is completing just 62.7% of his passes and lot of that has to do with this 32nd ranked Texans offensive line. Stroud’s been sacked six times through two games and this offensive line gave up nine pressures and two sacks on just 30 drops backs in Week 2. Not only is the Texans receiver room beat up, but the lack of offensive line has made the situation even harder.
Houston ranks 28th in total yards this year, 28th in pass yards and dead last in points per game. Their defense has been elite this year but their offense has been equally as bad.
Sunday’s Best Bets
Texans vs. Jaguars u44.5 (-110)
Houston’s pass rush so far this year has been one of the best in the league. Defensive ends, Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter both rank in the top-15 amongst all defensive players in pash rush grade. The two have combined for 20 quarterback pressures through two games and have accounted for four of the team’s six sacks this year.
Houston’s giving up just 17 points per game and have done a great job of containing opposing team’s aerial attack. Something the Jaguars have already struggled with this year.
Jacksonville currently ranks 4th in coverage grade, 4th overall in defensive grade and have the 17th ranked pass rush. The Jaguars have generated just four sacks this year, doing a good job of generating pressure but just failing to get home on a lot of these sacks. This week they line up against the 32nd ranked offensive line and they get to do it at home.
Lastly, Trevor Lawrence has struggled in this matchup. He’s played the Texans eight times, won just two games; averaging 229.1 yards per game, with seven touchdowns and NINE interceptions.
Travis Hunter o38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The Jaguars shocked everyone this offseason when they paid a king’s ransom for the 2nd overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft. They traded up to draft last year’s Heisman Winner, Travis Hunter.
Hunter finished with 1,258 receiving yards in his final year at Colorado, scoring 16 total touchdowns, recording 36 combined tackles and four interceptions. He played both sides of the ball and dominated while doing it. Two weeks into his NFL career he’s still doing it on both sides of the ball. He’s yet to play a full share of snaps on either side of the ball, but this week against the Texans I think they’ll need to utilize him on the offensive side.
The Texans have struggled against slot receivers this year. In Week 1 against the Rams, the Texans gave up 10 receptions for 130 yards to Puka Nacua. Nacua took 65% of his snaps out of the slot and caught 10 of his 11 targets. In Week 2 against the Buccaneers, we saw Sterling Sharp dominate the slot snaps, catching all four of his targets for 34 yards.
Hunter’s seeing a 20% target share despite playing just 61% of the offensive snaps. He’s played 84 total offensive snaps, 55 of those have been passing downs and he’s been targeted on 14 of those plays. Hunter’s been targeted on 25% of the team’s passing downs and he leads the team in ‘catchable’ targets. His 6.5 yard average depth of target should allow for some pressure release for Lawrence, especially up against this Texans front seven.
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