The Chiefs and Texans are fighting for their playoff lives and neither one can afford to take a loss this week. Let’s jump right into it.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium; Kansas City, Missouri
- Date: Sunday, December 7th, 2025
- Kickoff: 8:20 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud (10-7; 2024 – 219.2 YPG | 20 TD | 12 INT)
- Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes (15-1; 2024 – 245.5 YPG | 26 TD | 11 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Treacherous Twins
The Houston Texans started the year by losing four of the team’s first six games; starting the year an abysmal 0-3. Since then, the Texans have won five of their next six games, averaging 22.7 points per game and even with Davis Mills starting three of those games.
The biggest reason for this turn around has been this team’s defense. The Texans are #1 in points allowed (16.5), 1st in opponent first downs, 4th in opponent pass yards, 4th in opponent rush yards, 3rd in opponent yards per play and 6th in sacks. The Texans rank 5th in turnovers this year, forcing 1.6 turnovers per game this year.
How’ve they done it? The Treacherous Twins.
Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. have been two of the scariest pass rushers of the year so far in 2025. They’ve both combined for over 120 pressures, 21 sacks and 25 tackles for a loss. The two have been unstoppable this year, both recording pass rush win rates over 22% and pass rush grades in the 90th percentile.
With these two terrorizing opposing QBs, it’s no surprise the Texans have held opponents to just 174.0 pass yards per game this year.
Chiefs, Dead?
It’s Week 14 and the Chiefs are third in the AFC West. They’ve won just 50% of their games so far and sit four games back of the 1st place Denver Broncos. Kansas City has lost three of their last four games and they have not been pretty. All three losses were decided by less than a touchdown and two of the losses came against other big time AFC opponents.
Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been the problem this year, in fact he’s having one his better individual years in recent memory. Patty’s averaging 269.8 pass yards per game this year, he’s completing 64.6% of his passes for 22 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions. He’s got a passer rating of 96.5 this year and he’s even got four touchdowns with his legs.
Defensively, this is one of the best defenses Patrick Mahomes has ever played with. The Chiefs rank 7th in points allowed (19.3), 7th in opponent redzone efficiency, 4th in opponent first downs and 9th in opponent rush yards. The one thing they haven’t done well is get to the QB. The Chiefs rank 26th in sacks this year, 18th in QB hits and 20th in QB hurries.
They’ve done next to nothing to get pressure on opposing QBs and it’s why we’ve seen this defense give up 270+ yards through the air in three of their last four games.
Sunday Night’s Best Bets
Patrick Mahomes o22.5 Rushing Yards (-114) | BetOnline
The Texans defense this year has been one of the toughest to go against. The combination of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. upfront, while Derek Stingley Jr. plays on the outside; just impossible to crack. That’s why we’re looking to Mahomes to move the ball with his legs this week.
Mahomes has cleared this rushing yards line in 8 of his 12 games this year, including 5 of his 6 home games. Mahomes is averaging 31.8 rush yards per game at Arrowhead this year, carrying the ball 5.5 times per game with a 5.8 yards per carry average.
The Texans have allowed 4 of the last 6 QBs they’ve faced to finished with 23+ rushing yards, with 3 of the 6 running for more than 30 yards. The Chiefs come into this game with their backs against the wall. The division is all but out of reach so if they hope to make the playoffs they’ll need to do through seeding in the AFC.
Mahomes is the Chiefs 2nd leading rusher this year, he’s averaging 29.0 yards per game and 6.3 yards per carry. He’s got four touchdowns with his legs and this week they’re up against the toughest defense in the NFL. Every game between now and the start of the postseason is ‘must win’ for the Chiefs and with that being said, look for Mahomes to do whatever it takes to record a win.
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