Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
A game involving a 1-10 team usually wouldn’t offer much intrigue, but Cam Ward’s recent play – paired with Jacksonville’s need to keep pace atop the AFC South – suddenly makes this matchup worth watching.
Oddsmakers opened Jacksonville -7, but the number has dipped to -6.5. The total opened at 41.5 and is now sitting anywhere between 41.5 and 42.5 across the market.
I’ll tell you how I expect this game to play out and also dish out a pair of plays with my Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars prediction and prop bets.
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Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction & Prop Bet
Cam Ward looks to play spoiler this Sunday against his division foe, Jacksonville Jaguars
Titans vs Jaguars Prediction
Despite boasting a 1-10 record, there’s reason to have optimism around the Tennessee Titans. Their rookie No. 1 overall pick, Cam Ward, has been improving as the season has gone on.
Tennessee is in the midst of a six-game losing streak, but their last three games have all been within one score. They lost 27-20 to the Chargers, fell 16-13 against the Texans, and put together a backdoor cover versus the Seahawks this past Sunday, losing 30-24.
Those are three respectable defenses Ward has faced – and specifically, the Texans and Seahawks sit near the top of the NFL’s defensive rankings. Here’s how Ward performed:
Vs HOU: 24-37, 194 yards, 1 TD, 3 carries for 33 yards
Vs SEA: 28-42, 256 yards, 1 TD, 6 carries for 37 yards, 1 rush TD
Over that two-week stretch, among qualified quarterbacks, Ward finished eighth in CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected), 11th in EPA/Play, and 19th in success rate.
He draws another difficult defense this week in Jacksonville, though the Jags also have their flaws – most notably through the air.
Jacksonville ranks 27th in opponent red zone defense (61.7%), 25th in dropback success rate, and allows 240 passing yards per game and 5.3 yards per play. Where they thrive is against the run, limiting opposing tailbacks to just 3.9 yards per carry (fourth fewest) and ranking second in rush success rate.
Ward should be expected to throw the ball more than usual in this contest.
On the other side, Trevor Lawrence has made some noise as of late, ranking first in success rate over the past two weeks. The Jaguars are averaging over 30 points per game across their last four outings and now face a Titans defense that has allowed more than 28 ppg over their previous five.
Tennessee sits 29th in EPA/Play and 22nd in success rate allowed, while giving up 5.8 yards per play (26th) and ranking 18th in red zone defensive efficiency (58.5%). The Jaguars offense should have little trouble continuing its rhythm against one of the league’s weaker defenses.
I expect the Jaguars to win this game, but I believe it’s going to be a very uncomfortable victory. The Titans have been a scrappy bunch recently, and with Ward improving every week, he should be able to move the ball against a Jacksonville defense with clear vulnerabilities.
If this spread were still at seven, I’d take the points with the home underdog. It’s a divisional road game for Lawrence and company, and they’ve played some uneasy games this season. This is a great spot for Tennessee to play spoiler against a playoff-hopeful, division-hunting team. I don’t want to make an official play on the Titans now that they’re under the key number of seven, but I will look for in-game opportunities to back them if the live line crosses that threshold.
I also considered betting the over, with the expectation that Jacksonville will have no issues scoring and Ward will be able to generate some offense. But I think the line is set appropriately around 41.5. A final score of 24–17 or 23–17, with the Jaguars winning, feels like a realistic projection range.
Even though I don’t have official action on the side or total, I do have wagers on a couple player props.
Tennessee vs Jacksonville Prop Bets
You can’t break this game down without recognizing the improvements of rookie quarterback Cam Ward. As mentioned earlier, he draws a somewhat favorable matchup in the passing department against a Jacksonville defense surrendering 240 passing yards per game, 10.1 yards per completion and ranking 24th in dropback success rate.
The Titans will be trailing at various points in this game and will need to throw to keep up. On top of that, the backbone of this Jaguars defense is their ability to stop the run. They rank second in rush success rate allowed and give up just 3.9 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, Tennessee’s rushing offense is dead last in both EPA and success rate per attempt. Once they get stymied in the backfield, the Titans’ game plan will quickly shift to relying on Ward’s arm – which it should be anyway to help his development in what’s already a lost season.
Before seeing Ward’s passing yards prop, I told myself that if it was posted under 200 yards, it would be a bet. Sure enough, it’s listed at 199.5. This is a mark he’s gone over in six of 11 games this season, and I’m banking on him doing so again.
I’m also going to take a stab at his rushing yards over 8.5 (-110) on Sunday. He’s rushed for 33+ yards in each of the last two games. Granted, he’s only gone over this mark in one other game this season, but that’s largely because he’s been hesitant to scramble.
Over the past two weeks, he’s clearly become more comfortable using his mobility, and he’s seen success doing so. I imagine he’ll have the same opportunities this week, giving us a great chance to take advantage of a very low rushing prop.
Jacksonville is allowing opposing quarterbacks to rush for 19 yards per game, and each of the last three QBs they’ve faced has topped 20+. That doesn’t guarantee Ward will do the same, but it provides additional context as to why this prop carries strong value.
Best Bets:
NFL Record: 68-50-1 (+9.87 units)
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