Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts: If you asked me a month ago my thoughts on a Week 3 matchup between Cam Ward and Daniel Jones, I’d probably reply “I couldn’t care less.” But in classic NFL fashion, the script has flipped and this has suddenly become an enticing AFC South showdown.
Daniel Jones has unexpectedly become a stud under a new head coach and play caller Shane Steichen, leading the Colts to a 2-0 to start after many predicted them to finish near the bottom of the league.
Conversely, the Titans look headed toward the bottom of the division – and maybe the entire league. With rookie quarterback Cam Ward under center, Tennessee has stumbled to an 0-2 start, but are they truly as bad as the record shows? Let’s find out with my Titans vs Colts picks and predictions.
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Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts NFL Betting Insights
What can Jonathan Taylor do against this weak Tennessee run defense?
Line Leaps: This game has experienced significant market movement. When early spreads were released months ago, Indianapolis opened as a 1.5-point favorite with the total set at 45.5.
Fast forward a couple weeks into the season – and two wins from Daniel Jones – and Indianapolis is now as high as a 5.5-point favorite, with the total down to 43.5. It’s important to note any shifts in the betting market, but especially when a line not only crosses zero, but also moves through the key number of three in favor of a road team.
The question is whether the adjustment is necessary, or simply a product of recency bias?
Let’s not kid ourselves, it was appropriate for the line to move. The Colts are clearly better than the market gave them credit for, and the Titans’ offense has been a disaster through two weeks. Still, there are caveats. Tennessee has shown a few flashes despite the 0-2 record, while Indianapolis benefited from a fortunate win over Denver in Week 2 and an opener against what might be the league’s worst team, the Dolphins.
So while an alteration in the odds was necessary, it may be a bit much.
Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts Predictions: So just how good has Daniel Jones been? He has the Colts sitting 3rd in both offensive EPA per play and success rate. On an individual level, Jones ranks 2nd in success rate and 9th in CPOE (completion percentage over expected).
And how bad has Cam Ward been? Among 34 qualified quarterbacks, Ward ranks dead last in adjusted EPA per play, success rate, and CPOE. As a team, the Titans are 31st in offensive EPA per play and 32nd in success rate.
Defensively, both teams come with plenty of flaws. The Colts rank 22nd in defensive success rate, giving up 5.4 yards per play and allowing opponents to score on every red zone trip so far. Their biggest issue is against the run, where they sit 27th in rush EPA allowed and 26th in rush success rate.
The Titans have been sturdier in the red zone, holding opponents to a 44.4% success rate. Still, they rank 22nd in EPA per play allowed overall. While they’ve held up reasonably well against the pass, Tennessee has been gashed on the ground, ranking dead last in rush EPA per play allowed.
This matchup has the makings for an ugly back-and-forth battle.
Titans vs Colts Picks: It’s hard not to gravitate toward grabbing the +5.5. Yes, the Titans have looked rough and confidence in this coaching staff is minimal. But this line feels like a classic overreaction to one team overperforming early.
Maybe Daniel Jones really has unlocked a new level in Indianapolis, but I want to see consistency before buying in. The Colts might be the better team right now, but bettors play numbers, not teams – and laying -5.5 on a road favorite after this kind of aggressive move looks risky.
I’d lean toward Cam Ward and the Titans if I had to choose a side. The rookie has shown flashes of progress on offense and has the tools to make something happen on any given play. Tennessee’s schedule hasn’t done them any favors either – opening on the road in Mile High against a Broncos team with lofty expectations, then hosting a veteran, offensive-minded Rams squad. They’ve held their own reasonably well in both, and I think they can do so again here.
Where a potential official play could emerge is in the prop market with Jonathan Taylor. He’ll be in a great opportunity to pad his numbers against what appears to be the worst run defense in the league. Just last week, the Rams gashed Tennessee for 149 yards on 25 carries (6.0 YPC), and the week before, Denver averaged 5.0 yards on 30 attempts. Taylor’s prop can be found at 86.5 – not a bad look to back the over in this matchup.
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