Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers: Both of these teams overcame major adversity last week and found gritty ways to win.
The 49ers, with backup Mac Jones under center and missing George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings, battled their way to a 26-23 overtime win on the road against their division rival, the Los Angeles Rams.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers traveled to the Pacific Northwest and outlasted the Seahawks 38-35. Baker Mayfield led the charge despite being without his starting running back Bucky Irving and top receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Here are the updated injury statuses from Wednesday’s reports:
Here’s first injury report of the week for Bucs and 49ers. Godwin now dealing with a fibula injury — Bowles on Monday: “I’m pretty sure he was sore.” 49ers have a longer list to keep track of this week … pic.twitter.com/m39Qk4ndL6
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) October 8, 2025
As of Thursday’s early reports, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin were not spotted at practice.
So, which team can overcome the injuries and grind out another win? Let’s break it down with my Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers picks and predictions.
*UPDATE: Irving, Evans & Godwin are all out for Week 6. Pearsall and Purdy have also been ruled out.*
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Betting Insights
Can Christian McCaffrey will his team to another win?
Marvelous Mac: Who had it on their 2025 NFL bingo card that Mac Jones would be 3-0 as the 49ers’ starting quarterback? Absolutely no one.
Jones has completed 67% of his passes for 905 yards, with six touchdowns and just one interception. If you needed more proof that Kyle Shanahan is a mastermind, this is it.
Of course, this isn’t the first time Shanahan has elevated quarterbacks who weren’t expected to shine. He’s done it with Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy, too.
While nothing is official, all signs point to Jones starting again this week. And why not? He’s been efficient, and there’s no reason to rush Purdy back if he’s not fully healthy.
Jones now draws a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 22nd in success rate and 20th in EPA per play allowed. The secondary has been particularly shaky, sitting 31st in dropback success rate and 27th in dropback EPA. That sets up Jones to find another passing groove on Sunday.
Baker Magic: Somehow, someway, Baker Mayfield keeps guiding the Buccaneers to victories. Every game this season has been decided by a single score, with their largest margin of separation coming in a 31-25 loss at Philadelphia in Week 4. They’ve won every other matchup by an average of just 2.3 points. It’s hardly sustainable, but credit is due for their knack of pulling out close games.
The 49ers enter with the advantage of extra rest and prep time after playing on Thursday Night Football, while Tampa Bay returns home on standard rest following a cross-country trip and a rollercoaster shootout in Seattle.
It’s remarkable that Mayfield managed to put up 38 points on the road against a respectable Seahawks defense without Evans, Godwin, and Irving. The real question now is whether he can replicate that offensive success against San Francisco’s defense.
Bucs vs 49ers Picks & Predictions: I believe Mayfield can. This isn’t the same 49ers defense we’ve grown used to in recent years. They rank 14th in EPA per play, but 24th in success rate allowed.
Of course, this matchup hinges on the injury reports – particularly for San Francisco. While Jones has played well, Mayfield is still the superior quarterback. And if Jones is once again without several of his top weapons, the outcome may not be nearly as fortunate for the 49ers as it was in Week 5.
This game opened with Tampa Bay favored by 1.5 points and a total of 48.5. After five weeks and a wave of injuries, the line has shifted to the Bucs -3 with the total down to 47.5.
If the total were to dip below 47, I’d lean toward the over. For now, I’ll be monitoring injury news – if several skill players are ruled out, the number could move further down, potentially creating value on the over.
As for a side, the 49ers hold a clear rest and prep advantage, and with the spread sitting right on the key number of three, it’s hard to justify laying points with Tampa Bay. While I lean toward the Bucs grinding out another win, they’ve yet to win comfortably this season, even with a healthy roster, so I can’t back them at -3 or higher.
There may be more value in exploring the 49ers’ passing game props. Tampa Bay’s secondary has been a major liability, ranking 31st in dropback success rate and 27th in EPA per pass play allowed.
The Bucs are also giving up the third-most receiving yards per game to running backs (51.4). With San Francisco potentially missing key receivers, Christian McCaffrey’s role as a pass-catcher should only expand. He’s already been a focal point, averaging 7.8 receptions on 10.4 targets for 77.4 yards per game, with three receiving touchdowns. Strangely, he hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown yet this season, but his impact through the air has been undeniable.
McCaffrey’s receiving yards prop is currently set at 48.5 with -114 juice to the over, and that’s the angle I’m targeting. Even if some of San Francisco’s pass-catchers return, CMC will remain a centerpiece of their passing attack.
Play: Christian McCaffrey Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Still Didn’t Get Your NFL Fix?
Follow me on X @dannyburke5 for all my picks, analysis and plenty more. Also be sure to follow Betting News on ‘X’ and Twitch to catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day and check out our Free Expert Picks for every major sports league.
NFL Betting News NFL Betting NewsMore NFL News
Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings Preview & Predictions (12/14)
Chasing Six | NFL Week 15 Anytime Touchdown Bets
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Check Out All of Our Betting Resources at Betting News