Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Jets: Following a career year from Baker Mayfield, much of the public felt confident picking the Bucs as Super Bowl contenders this season.
Getting his team to 2-0 is certainly a step in the right direction, but is that record more a reflection of luck or pure skill? I’ll give you my answer below as I dig into my Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Jets picks and predictions.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Jets NFL Betting Insights
Can Baker lead the Bucs to a 3-0 start?
Lucky Bucs: Many people may roll their eyes at me for questioning this Tampa Bay team, but hear me out.
The Bucs were fortunate to escape Atlanta with a win in Week 1. The Falcons outgained them with 358 total yards, led in yards per play (5.0), first downs, total plays, and time of possession. All of that was wiped away when Younghoe Koo missed a game-tying field goal at the end of regulation. Sure, Tampa still might’ve won in overtime, but based on the stats, the odds wouldn’t have been in their favor.
Then came Houston, where they faced an anemic Texans offense. C.J. Stroud went just 13-for-24 for 207 yards and one touchdown, posting a 19.5 QBR. Yet even then, Tampa needed breaks to pull it out. In the first quarter, Mayfield threw one of his worst passes of the season that should’ve been easily intercepted, but was dropped and directly led to a Tampa touchdown. A couple of fumbles bounced back into the Bucs’ hands. And Houston’s offense completely imploded, going 0-for-4 on a red zone trip that included three snaps from the 1-yard line, plus a failed two-point conversion after taking the lead.
Honestly, both teams deserved to lose that game given how poorly they played. And look – I love and respect Baker’s grit and determination as much as anyone, but we have to tread lightly with this Tampa team. I’d be surprised if this streak of fortune persists.
Glenn’s Gaps: As we turn to the Bucs’ upcoming opponent, it’s impossible not to question the state of the Jets’ defense.
First-year head coach Aaron Glenn has stumbled out to an 0-2 start in New York. His defense currently ranks 31st in EPA per play and 21st in success rate allowed, while giving up 5.4 yards per play and 30-plus points in each of their first two games.
That’s downright alarming when you consider the Jets have built their entire identity around defense in recent years – and let’s not forget, Aaron Glenn is a defensive coach. This isn’t some first-timer learning on the fly; he ran Detroit’s defense before landing this gig. And yet, two games in, his unit looks lost. It’s a flat-out embarrassing start for Glenn and his crew, and unless something changes fast, a quality Buccaneers offense could make things even uglier
Justin and the Jets: For a brief moment, it looked like Justin Fields had turned the corner. After Week 1 against Pittsburgh, plenty of fans were ready to call him a legitimate quarterback. He went 16-of-22 for 218 yards and a touchdown through the air, adding 12 carries for 48 yards and two rushing scores, and posted a 75.7 QBR.
But just one week later, we saw more of the same old Fields. Against Buffalo, he went 3-of-11 for 27 yards, ran only five times for 49 yards, and put up a career-worst 1.1 QBR. To make matters worse, he took a big shot in the fourth quarter, left with a concussion, and now he will be out for this Week 3 matchup.
That allows veteran Tyrod Taylor to step in. He came in relief last week and went 7-of-11 for 56 yards with a garbage-time touchdown. Taylor is a steady hand and won’t completely sink the offense, but he’s not moving the needle either. Maybe he can keep it respectable against a Bucs defense that’s quietly been vulnerable – ranking 26th in dropback EPA, 24th in dropback success rate, and giving up five yards per play.
What’s the Play: Whether or not Justin Fields suited up for this game wasn’t going to change the public’s appetite for backing Tampa Bay. Bettors have seen how awful the Jets’ defense has been, they remember how Buffalo steamrolled them, and they just watched the Bucs pull off a miracle drive in primetime.
That said, the market has nudged toward the underdog. Tampa opened as high as -8 with a total of 45.5. Now the consensus sits at Bucs -6.5, total 44. The adjustment makes sense: the Bucs have been more lucky than good, they’re on a short week, their defense has holes, and Tyrod Taylor may actually be a more competent passer than Fields.
If I had to pick a side, I’d lean New York – but I missed the best of the number. Grabbing +7 the other day was the play; under that key number, the value just isn’t the same.
At this point, I’d look at teasing Tampa down from -6.5 to -0.5, asking them to just win outright – and pairing them with a dancing partner.
Although, another angle worth watching involves Bucs running back Bucky Irving and his props.
After a lackluster Week 1 performance against Atlanta (14 carries, 37 yds, 2.6 YPC), Irving bounced back with 17 carries for 71 yards (4.2 YPC) and hauled in six receptions for 50 yards.
Clearly, Aaron Glenn’s defense is in shambles – especially against the run, where they rank 29th in rush EPA and 23rd in rush success rate allowed. Opposing backs are chewing them up at 4.4 yards per carry.
Bucky Irving’s rushing props can be found around 68.5. I’m projecting him north of 80 yards in this matchup. Irving’s prop could be a strong angle to pursue if you don’t feel as confident in picking a side.
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