Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots Preview & Picks (11/9): Whose Luck Runs Out?

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Which of these teams will be exposed come Sunday? Our expert tells you with his Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots preview & picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are back in action following their bye week and will jump right into a matchup with one of the league’s hottest teams – the New England Patriots.

New England has rattled off six straight wins and sits at 7-2, while Tampa Bay is 6-2 after a 23-3 win in New Orleans heading into its mid-season break.

This shapes up as one of the better matchups on the Week 10 slate. Let’s dive into it with my Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots preview and picks.

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots NFL Betting Insights

Which of these teams will be exposed come Sunday? Our expert tells you with his Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots preview & picks.

Baker Mayfield & the Bucs look to end the Patriots six-game win streak.

Buccaneers vs Patriots Preview

This game is fascinating to break down from a statistical standpoint. Offensively, both teams have shown explosiveness, but when you look deeper into the advanced numbers, Drake Maye and the Patriots get the edge:

EPA per Play

  • New England: 7th
  • Tampa Bay: 17th

Success Rate

  • New England: 12th
  • Tampa Bay: 26th

In the quarterback department, it’s easy to see why Maye’s MVP odds are much shorter than Mayfield’s when you dig into the advanced metrics:

Adjusted EPA

  • Maye: 3rd
  • Mayfield: 16th

Success Rate

  • Maye: 5th
  • Mayfield: 25th

CPOE

  • Maye: 1st
  • Mayfield: 28th

Defensively, these teams are pretty much neck and neck:

EPA per Play:

  • Tampa Bay: 3rd
  • New England: 8th

Success Rate:

  • Tampa Bay: 12th
  • New England: 14th 

Both defenses rank top-five against the run in EPA per rush and success rate allowed, and each is holding opponents to under four yards per carry. So this game is likely going to come down to the quarterbacks and which one can step up in the big moment and avoid the costly mistake. We’re going to learn a lot about both franchises in the process.

A big talking point around New England is the strength of schedule. The Patriots have played the easiest slate in the league to this point, which naturally raises the question: are they really as good as their 7-2 record suggests? Are they as efficient as their metrics indicate, or are they inflated by playing weaker opponents? We’ll get a much clearer answer on Sunday.

As for the Buccaneers, their 6-2 record is solid, but it hasn’t come without stress. Four of their six wins have been decided by one score, and their average margin of victory sits at just 6.7 points. Yes, the last two wins were more convincing – an 11-point win over the 49ers and a 20-point win in New Orleans – but outside of those, everything has gone down to the wire. So it’s fair to question just how good this team truly is, too.

Tampa Bay vs New England Picks

With all of that in mind, let’s shift to the betting market. Oddsmakers opened Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 48. As of now, the spread has held firm at Bucs -2.5 across the board, while the total is fluctuating slightly between 47.5 and 48.5, depending on where you shop.

I’ve been looking to fade the Patriots in several spots this season. I took +5.5 with the Falcons last week and cashed when New England only won by one. But just the same, I’ve also been waiting for spots to fade Tampa Bay. After digging into both teams in this matchup, it’s hard to justify this game being anything other than a pick’em. Yes, you can give Tampa Bay a slight edge for extra rest and being at home, but those factors don’t carry the same value they once did. And sure, the Patriots’ numbers could be boosted by an easy schedule, but they’ve handled business and Drake Maye has looked sharp. On the flip side, Tampa Bay has been fortunate in several wins and has some notable injury concerns.

If I had to choose a side, I’d take New England +2.5. But I see more value in teasing the Patriots up to +8.5 on a standard 6-point teaser. You can pick whichever team you want as the second leg, but I’ll be pairing it with the Seahawks, bringing them from -6.5 to -0.5, essentially asking them just to win the game against Jacoby Brissett and the Arizona Cardinals.

Who wins between the Bucs and Patriots won’t shock me either way. What would surprise me is either team winning by more than a touchdown. That’s why teasing New England up to +8.5 feels like the safest and most sensible approach to this matchup.

Best Bet: 6-Point Teaser: Patriots 8.5 / Seahawks -0.5 (-115) BetOnline

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