The Steelers take a trip to Foxborough to face Drake Maye and the New England Patriots. Both teams enter this week’s contest having split their first two games, with both team’s will be looking to leave Gillette Stadium with a winning record; let’s jump right into it.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Gillette Stadium; Foxborough, New England
- Date: Sunday, September 21st, 2025
- Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Rodgers (5-12; 2024 – 229.2 YPG | 28 TD | 11 INT)
- New England Patriots: Drake Maye (3-9; 2024 – 187.8 YPG | 15 TD | 10 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Steel Curtain
Through two games this year, the Steelers are currently ranked 29th in points allowed, 29th in yards allowed, and 28th in rushing yards allowed. A team that used to hang their hat on defense has now given up 62 points through two weeks. Last week’s game against the Seahawks started great, the Steelers held the Seahawks to seven first half points and they went into the break with a 14-7 lead.
Seattle responded with a 9-play, 80 yard drive on their first possession of the second half; capped off by AJ Barner touchdown. The Steelers would only score three points in the second half and walk away with the 31-17 loss. Aaron Rodgers completed just 55% of his passes, threw for 203 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. This was a stark contrast to the 244 yards, four touchdown outburst we saw in Week 1.
I’m interested to see which version of the Steelers we get this week.
No Defense, No Bueno
The New England Patriots have been without their All-Pro cornerback, Christian Gonzalez for the last seven weeks. Gonzalez sustained a hamstring injury during the team’s first padded practice and he’s been off the field since. Gonzalez missed the entirety of training camp, the pre-season and just returned to the practice field today (September 17th).
Without Gonzalez out their on the field, the Patriots have given up a league-high 630 passing yards to Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa. The Patriots allowed Smith to connect on 70% of his pass attempts and followed that up by allowing Tua to complete 81% of his pass attempts. This week the Patriots will face one of the most accurate quarterbacks in NFL history, Aaron Rodgers.
Whether Gonzalez is able to play or not, I’d expect the Patriots to watch his snap count and do whatever they can to mitigate chances of re-injury.
Sunday’s Best Bets
D.K. Metcalf o62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Last year, against this very Patriots team, inside this very stadium; D.K. Metcalf recorded 10 catches for 129 receiving yards and one touchdown. He saw 14 targets in this game and it came with Geno Smith under center. Now Metcalf’s playing for a brand new team with one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game. Metcalf thrived in this matchup last year, which also happened to feature a fully healthy Christian Gonzalez and also happened to take place in Week 3.
The Pats just gave up 109 to Tyreek Hill last week and 97 yards to Jakobi Meyers in Week 1. Both WR1’s they’ve faced this year have put up big numbers and it’s why I’m loving Metcalf in this spot. He leads the team in target share, routes run and has been on the field for 92% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Anytime you line up with a new quarterback under center, there’s bound to be some growing pains. After a big an 83-yard burst in Week 1, Metcalf reeled in just three of his six targets in Week 2, finishing the game with 20 yards and the Steelers’ only touchdown. Look for him to have more an impact this week, especially if the Steelers hope to walk away with the win.
Steelers vs. Patriots o44.5 (-110)
This total opened up at 42.5 and despite 70% of the current handle being on the under, we’ve seen it tick up two points. Both the Patriots and Steelers rank in the bottom-10 for pass yards allowed, total yards allowed and points allowed. Both teams rank in the bottom-12 of PFF’s coverage ranks and I don’t believe it’s about to get any better.
Patriots’ quarterback, Drake Maye recorded just his fourth career win last Sunday, throwing for 230 yards and two touchdowns in their divisional game against Miami. In Week 1 we saw May complete 65% of his passes for 287 yards and one touchdown. He’s now averaging 258.5 pass yards per game with three touchdowns and just one interception. The kid’s looked good so far this year and with Aaron Rodgers on the opposing sideline, look for him to compete just a little bit harder this week.
For the Steelers, it’ll be about sustaining drives. The Steelers rank 5th in redzone efficiency so far this year, converting 80% of their redzone trips into points. The problem is, they were only in the redzone twice last week. Two costly interceptions from Aaron Rodgers took points directly off the board for Pittsburgh, both turnovers coming on the Seahawks side of the field and one coming at the 4-yard line.
If Pittsburgh can minimize the mistakes, they should be in prime position to put up points come Sunday.
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