Steelers vs Bills Prediction, Odds, & Best Bets for NFL Wild Card

Allen and the Bills host the 49ers on Sunday Night Football

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Football’s postseason is finally here with NFL Super Wild Card Weekend beginning in just a few days. There are three playoff matchups lined up for Sunday, Jan. 14, beginning with a 1 p.m. ET clash between the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) and Buffalo Bills (11-6) at Highmark Stadium.

The 2023-24 #NFLPlayoffs begin with Super Wild Card Weekend on Saturday, Jan. 13. 🏈

Start your playoff betting right with my #SuperWildCard primer on @YourBettingNews, featuring early predictions & #NFLPicks for all six first-round matchups. https://t.co/45FRl1uczb

— Devon 🅿️latana (@devplat) January 8, 2024

The Steelers head into the postseason on a high note, having won three straight matchups ahead of the Wild Card Round. At the same time, the Bills are also on an absolute heater as they ride a five-game winning streak, having not lost since Nov. 26.

As far as Bovada’s Super Bowl LVIII odds go, Buffalo begins the postseason with the third-best odds (+550) to take home the Lombardi Trophy while Pittsburgh sits dead last (+12000) in that regard.

With plenty of NFL Wild Card betting opportunities also on the horizon, let’s dive into my Steelers vs Bills prediction and best bets.

Steelers vs Bills NFL Wild Card Preview

Steelers vs Bills Matchup Information

Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7, 5-3 Away) vs. Buffalo Bills (11-6, 7-2 Home)
Venue & Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, NY)
Date: Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024
Game Time: 1 p.m. ET
Steelers vs. Bills Wild Card TV Channel: CBS

Steelers vs Bills Odds & Spread

Steelers vs. Bills odds are courtesy of Bovada as of Thursday, Jan. 11 at 12:25 p.m. ET. Odds from other sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Steelers vs Bills Spread

Pittsburgh Steelers +10 (-120)
Buffalo Bills -10 (+100)

Bills vs Steelers Over/Under

Over 35.5 Points (-110)
Under 35.5 Points (-110)

Steelers vs Bills Moneyline

Pittsburgh Steelers (+375)
Buffalo Bills (-525)

Updated Steelers vs Bills Odds & Spread

Updated odds as of Sunday, Jan. 14 at 12:40 p.m. ET.

Updated Steelers vs Bills Spread

Pittsburgh Steelers +10 (-115)
Buffalo Bills -10 (-105)

Updated Bills vs Steelers Over/Under

Over 38 Points (-110)
Under 38 Points (-110)

Updated Steelers vs Bills Moneyline

Pittsburgh Steelers (+390)
Buffalo Bills (-550)

NFL Best Bets and Picks

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Steelers vs Bills Betting Trends

Pittsburgh is 0-5 straight up in its last five games vs. the AFC East.
Buffalo is 6-3 straight up in its last nine games vs. the AFC North.
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last six games played in January.
Buffalo is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as the favorite.
The total hit the Over in four of Pittsburgh’s last five games.
The total hit the Under in seven of Buffalo’s last eight games vs. Pittsburgh.

Steelers vs Bills Prediction & Best Bet: NFL Super Wild Card Weekend

When it comes to this weekend’s six Wild Card games, there’s no bigger favorite than the Bills at -525 odds on the moneyline, which carry an implied win probability of 84.0%.

The Bills, as mentioned before, are one of the hottest teams in the playoffs, winning their last five games in a row by an 8-point average. They also have the advantage of playing this matchup at Highmark Stadium, where they’re 7-2 SU (4-5 ATS) with a plus-14.8 average scoring margin at home (2nd in NFL).

At the same time, the Steelers have been more than comfortable on the road. Mike Tomlin’s team boasts a 5-2 SU and ATS record in away situations this season, which has a lot to do with a defense that only surrenders 18.9 PPG on the road (4th).

But even with a decent amount of away success, the Steelers do have some things working against them. For example, they’ve lost five straight encounters with an AFC East team while the Bills are 6-3 SU in their nine previous encounters with the AFC North.

Can the Bills continue their dominance over the AFC North by beating the Steelers on Sunday?

Pittsburgh has also confirmed that backup QB Mason Rudolph will make his fourth straight start this weekend. While the 28-year-old gunslinger has led the Steelers to three wins in a row, he hasn’t looked otherworldly during that stretch, only throwing for three touchdowns while averaging 238.7 passing yards per contest.

Additionally, Rudolph has zero postseason experience.

Bills QB Josh Allen’s play hasn’t been perfect this season, but he still has eight postseason starts under his belt. He’s also performed extremely well at Highmark Stadium this season, throwing for 2,161 yards, 18 TDs, and seven INTs with a 102.4 passer rating in nine home starts on top of turning 48 carries into another 186 yards with seven touchdowns.

The weather in Orchard Park is also supposed to be “frigid, windy” this Sunday, which could work in Buffalo’s favor. Not only are the Bills used to playing in that type of weather, but they also average about 12 more rushing yards per game than the Steelers do.

POTENTIALLY ROUGH WEATHER for the @BuffaloBills. If computers are right, heavier snow may be north of OP for awhile during AM, but then drop so'ward across OP during PM. We'll definitely know more Friday. @News4Buffalo WakeUp! Now on CW23 #BillsMafia #nywx #Buffalo @news4buffalo pic.twitter.com/JVobbreAQT

— Mike Cejka (@mikecejka4) January 11, 2024

In what could be quite the winter experience, I’m taking the Bills to advance past the NFL Wild Card Round. Buffalo is used to chilly games and knows how to get the job done at Highmark Stadium. The Steelers have been playing well lately and could keep it closer than oddsmakers imply, but Rudolph’s lack of big-game experience will cost them in the end.

With that in mind, I do recommend backing the Steelers on the spread. Pittsburgh covered the spread in 58.8% of its regular-season games (T-7th) while Buffalo only did so 41.2% of the time (24th) in addition to being 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as the favorite.

Considering how the Bills only have two double-digit wins in their last 13 outings, I like the Steelers’ chances of covering in a game where there likely won’t be too much passing.

Steelers vs Bills Prediction: BUF wins

Best Steelers vs Bills NFL Bet: PIT +10 (-120)

Get 50% up to $750 on this pick over on Bovada

Best Steelers vs Bills Player Prop — NFL Super Wild Card Weekend

With some run-friendly weather conditions on the horizon, I’m going with James Cook rushing for Over 64.5 yards as the best Steelers vs. Bills player prop.

In addition to averaging 66.0 rushing yards per game this campaign, Cook has also hit the Over on this prop eight times. He’s finished with at least 100 rushing yards three teams with each of those occurrences happening at Highmark Stadium. That’s without mentioning how he’s averaging 70.8 rushing yards in 1 p.m. games this season.

After the Steelers allowed 96.4 rushing yards per game to running backs during the regular season (10th-most), Cook won’t have a problem coming through on this prop as long as the Bills continue to handle him the ball.