Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings
The Sam Darnold revenge game won’t carry the same appeal with the Seahawks listed as 12.5-point favorites and facing Minnesota’s third-string quarterback, Max Brosmer.
Still, it will be interesting to see how well Darnold performs against his old team – and how the Vikings’ offense operates without J.J. McCarthy under center.
Let’s dive deeper into this matchup with my Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings preview and predictions.
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Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings Preview & Predictions
Will Sam Darnold get revenge against his former team on Sunday?
Seahawks vs Vikings Preview
With J.J. McCarthy sidelined again, it will be 24-year-old rookie Max Brosmer leading the Vikings’ offense against one of the league’s toughest defenses on Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Brosmer spent his final college season at Minnesota, throwing for 2,828 yards, 18 touchdowns, six interceptions, and completing 66.5% of his passes. Before that, he spent five years at the University of New Hampshire.
Facing this Seahawks defense is a far cry from the competition he saw for most of his collegiate career at New Hampshire. Seattle enters this matchup ranking second in yards per completion allowed (8.9) and third in both yards per play (4.6) and yards per carry (3.8) allowed. They also sit fifth in both EPA per play and success rate allowed. The Seahawks give up just 19.7 points per game (7th) and 301 total yards per game (6th).
McCarthy has arguably been the worst quarterback in the NFL, and while it may feel like Brosmer couldn’t perform much worse, the matchup he’s walking into for his first career start suggests he might.
On the other side, Sam Darnold couldn’t be more motivated to face the team that chose McCarthy over him – despite Darnold leading Minnesota to a 14-3 record last season. It did end poorly with a 27-9 Wild Card loss to the Rams, and the week before that, a 31-9 blowout at Detroit. But prior to those final two weeks, Darnold was playing some great football. And now, under Mike Macdonald in the Pacific Northwest, he’s been even better.
Through 11 games, Darnold has thrown for 2,785 yards, completed 69.5% of his passes, and owns a 19–10 touchdown-to-interception ratio – though four of those interceptions came in Week 11 against the Rams, a team he clearly struggles with.
Even so, he’s led Seattle to an 8-3 record, and the Seahawks are in a strong position to earn their ninth win against the lowly Vikings.
Minnesota’s defense remains above average, ranking 11th in EPA per play and 12th in success rate allowed, but they’ve regressed from their early-season form. Their biggest weakness is against the run, where they rank 20th in rush success rate and 19th in rush EPA per play allowed.
The duo of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet could have a field day alongside Darnold, especially if – or when – the Seahawks build a comfortable lead.
Seattle vs Minnesota Predictions
I normally stray away from larger spreads in the NFL, but I would lean heavily toward laying the points with the Seahawks in this spot. I won’t be playing it officially, though, because the number has moved too much.
Seattle opened as low as -8.5 and has climbed as high as -12.5. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Seahawks win this game by three scores, but with the line shifting four points, it’s not good practice to jump in late.
Where I do think there’s still an opportunity is with Sam Darnold. I’m not big on overplaying revenge-game narratives, but it’s hard to ignore here. Seattle is laying double digits and facing a third-string rookie quarterback making his first start. The Seahawks should be able to do whatever they want on Sunday, which gives Darnold a good chance to pad his stats.
I’m betting Sam Darnold to throw over 1.5 passing touchdowns at -108. Minnesota allows just 1.3 passing touchdowns per game and is slightly more vulnerable against the run, but this is an ideal spot for Darnold. He’s thrown for two or more touchdowns in a majority of his starts this season, and I expect him to do so again.
Best Bet: Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-108)
NFL Record: 70-53-1 (+8.63 units)
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