Seattle Seahawks vs Indianapolis Colts Preview & Bet | Old Man Rivers Returns

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Can Philip Rivers make magic happen on Sunday? We'll tell you with our Seattle Seahawks vs Indianapolis Colts preview and bet.

The Colts have not only lost their last three games, but their starting quarterback in the process.

Daniel Jones went down with an Achilles injury last week, sidelining him for the remainder of the season. Indy’s backup, Riley Leonard, is also dealing with a knee injury, which has led to an almost unthinkable situation – the return of formerly retired, 44-year-old grandfather and quarterback, Philip Rivers.

No, this isn’t the plot of a movie. This is actually happening, and it’s happening against one of the best teams in football – the Seattle Seahawks, who enter this matchup riding a three-game win streak.

Forget winning the game – will Philip Rivers even be able to walk off the field on his own two feet Sunday? I’ll share my thoughts and plays in my Seattle Seahawks vs. Indianapolis Colts preview and picks.

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Seattle Seahawks vs Indianapolis Colts Preview & Bet

Will Sam Darnold get his revenge against his former team on Sunday?

Sam Darnold looks to guide his team to their fourth-straight win on Sunday

Seahawks vs Colts Preview

Sam Darnold and the Seahawks opened as low as -10.5 this week, but the line has surged to a consensus -13.5. The total has dipped slightly as well, moving from 43.5 to 42.5.

Regardless of which quarterback the Colts ultimately chose to start on Sunday, they’d be at a massive disadvantage either way.

The Seahawks defense ranks second in EPA per play and fourth in success rate allowed. They’re giving up just 4.5 yards per play – the second-fewest in the league – and that number has dipped even further to 4.1 over their past three games. Their red-zone defense has also improved significantly, ranking sixth on the season with a 50% touchdown rate allowed, but dropping to just 25% over the past three games.

It’s difficult to imagine any non-starting quarterback – let alone one coming out of retirement – consistently moving the ball against this defense in a hostile road environment.

As a result, the Colts’ offensive game plan should revolve almost entirely around their star running back, Jonathan Taylor. His rushing attempts prop is listed as high as 20.5, and honestly, he may clear that number with ease. He’s eclipsed 20.5 carries in three of his last four games and will be leaned on now more than ever given the uncertainty at quarterback.

The question is efficiency. Seattle will be fully expecting a run-heavy approach from Indianapolis, and their run defense is dominant. The Seahawks rank first in rush EPA, third in rush success rate, and are allowing just 3.8 yards per carry – second-best in the league.

The last time a non-starting quarterback faced the Seahawks in their home stadium came just a few weeks ago, when rookie Max Brosmer got the start for Minnesota. That game ended in a 26-0 Seahawks win, with Brosmer completing 19 of 30 passes for only 126 yards, throwing four interceptions and no touchdowns.

I don’t necessarily expect Philip Rivers to throw four picks, but it’s hard to imagine him putting many points on the board.

On the flip side, Darnold and the Seahawks offense draw what has been a vastly overrated Colts defense. Indianapolis has benefited from a soft schedule, which has made this unit appear better than it actually is. In reality, it’s a liability.

Since Week 9, the Colts rank 16th in defensive EPA per play, 24th in dropback EPA, and 20th in dropback success rate. Over that five-game span, they’re allowing 26.2 points per game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks offense ranks top-five in both dropback EPA and success rate. Darnold and company should have little trouble moving the ball against Indy’s secondary.

Seahawks vs Colts Bet

Remember when Conor McGregor and Floyd Mayweather fought? And remember how insanely short the odds were on Mayweather to win? He closed around -400 largely because money poured in on the underdog McGregor. The public got caught up in the fairytale, wanting to see something miraculous happen, just like in the movies.

Well, this game carries a similar sentiment. I’m sure plenty of people will be rooting for Philip Rivers to lead this Colts team to a win against one of the best squads in the league. What a story that would be. Honestly, it’d go down as one of the best ever.

As fun as that would be to watch, that’s not the objective here. The goal is to find an edge and make a profit. I don’t want to look back on this like I did as a young, naive college kid after Mayweather beat the brakes off McGregor, wondering, “How could I have made such a dumb bet?”

I want to feel like the people who backed Mayweather and said, “Wow, I can’t believe the price was that short. What a steal.”

That’s exactly how I view this matchup with Philip Rivers against the Seattle Seahawks. The fact that the line is still under the key number of -14 only makes it more enticing. I’d be stunned if Rivers and the Colts are able to keep this game close. And if they do, more power to them – it’ll be an incredible story.

But in reality, I find that very hard to believe.

Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks -13.5 (-110)

NFL Record: 80-63-1 (+7.22 units)

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