Seattle Seahawks vs Houston Texans
The second leg of Monday Night Football’s doubleheader takes us to the Pacific Northwest, where the Seahawks host the Texans. Seattle (4-2) is coming off a solid 20-12 road win in Jacksonville, while Houston (2-3) looks to make it three straight victories.
Let’s dive into an in-depth breakdown of this matchup with my Seattle Seahawks vs. Houston Texans preview and predictions.
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Seattle Seahawks vs Houston Texans NFL Betting Insights
Can Sam Darnold continue his high efficiency play against a top defense on Monday Night?
Seahawks vs Texans Preview
Has C.J. Stroud turned a corner, or is his recent success more a product of circumstance? The answer might be somewhere in the middle. The weakness of his recent opponents could have provided the reps and confidence he needed to find his rhythm, but I’m not completely sold just yet. There’s still plenty of untapped potential with Stroud, but his production has been somewhat underwhelming since his rookie season. Through five games this year, he’s completing 70.8% of his passes with an 8-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, totaling 1,076 passing yards and another 122 on the ground.
Those stats aren’t bad by any means, but context matters. His last two outings came against the Titans and Ravens – both defenses that allow 5.7 yards per play and over 350 yards per game. So expectations for any quarterback facing them should naturally be high. Stroud delivered solid performances in both: 22-of-28 for 233 yards, two touchdowns, and no picks versus Tennessee, then 23-of-37 for 244 yards and four touchdowns at Baltimore. Impressive, sure, but simply matching what most quarterbacks have done against those defenses doesn’t necessarily mean he’s back to his rookie-year form — especially with a much tougher test ahead against a Seattle defense that ranks third in yards per play allowed (4.8), seventh in success rate, and 13th in EPA per play.
Houston would love to establish an effective run game to open up play action for Stroud and take some pressure off his shoulders, but that’ll be tough against one of the league’s best run defenses. Seattle’s front seven allows the second-fewest yards per carry (3.3) while ranking third in rush EPA and sixth in rush success rate allowed. On the flip side, Houston ranks dead last in offensive rush success rate, with Nick Chubb and Woody Marks struggling to find consistency behind a shaky line.
It won’t be an easy night for Seattle’s offense either. Sam Darnold enters this matchup leading the NFL in both adjusted EPA per play and success rate, but he’ll face a Houston defense that’s been elite across the board. The Texans rank second in overall EPA per play allowed, eighth in success rate, and are particularly stingy against the pass – first in dropback EPA and fourth in dropback success rate.
That could force the Seahawks to lean on the ground game, though their backfield hasn’t provided much stability. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet have flashed at times but remain inconsistent, and as a team Seattle ranks 30th in offensive rush EPA and 26th in rush success rate.
Seattle vs Houston Predictions
When this matchup first opened back in May, Seattle was a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5. When the market re-opened recently, the Seahawks were bumped up to -2.5 and the total dropped to 42.5. As kickoff approaches, Seattle is now laying -3, and the total has dipped even further to 41. I expect a grueling, slow-paced game.
Given the numbers, we should have a pretty good sense of what each team will try to exploit. Houston’s rushing attack should continue to struggle, especially against one of the premier run defenses in the league. I’d look toward Nick Chubb staying under 11.5 rushing attempts due to inefficiency, shared reps with Woody Marks, and potential negative game script. Even if the Texans keep it close, attacking Seattle’s secondary – the weaker unit of the defense – gives them a better path to success. That’s why I’d lean toward C.J. Stroud’s completions (21.5) or attempts (32.5) overs. Both numbers are fair, so the edge isn’t huge, but those are the props I’d circle if you’re targeting player markets.
As for the side, I do think Seattle ultimately finds a way to win, though it’s certainly the more obvious, public angle. On paper, their offense holds the edge, but Houston’s defense and extra prep time coming off a bye make them dangerous. I’m not ready to buy into the Texans just because they beat two of the worst defenses in football over the past two weeks. I’ll be waiting for a better live number before getting involved. At the current -3, the line feels like it’s set perfectly – I’d prefer Seattle below that key number, especially in what projects to be a low-scoring, tight contest that could come down to a field goal.
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