The slate is full, so is my plate. We’ve got an abundance of NFL Games this week and I couldn’t be happier. Let’s keep it going and jump directly into this Raiders/Patriots matchup in the AFC. Josh McDaniels has a chance at redemption against the team that fired him and now being back in New England, he might finally be back where he’s supposed to be. Let’s jump right into this matchup and talk about my best bets this Sunday.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Gillette Stadium; Foxborough, Massachusetts
- Date: Sunday, September 7th, 2025
- Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Las Vegas Raiders: Geno Smith (10-7; 2024 – 254.1 YPG | 21 TD | 15 INT)
- New England Patriots: Drake Maye (3-9; 2024 – 187.8 YPG | 15 TD | 10 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Raider Nation
The two newest and most important additions to Raider Nations this off-season, Pete Carroll and Geno Smith. In two seasons together, Geno Smith and Pete Carroll combined to go 18-16; making the postseason just once and losing to the 49ers in the Wild Card Round, 41-23. When the Raiders brought in Pete Carroll, it was no surprise they went right after Geno Smith. Smith’s two best seasons both came under Pete Carroll.
Smith averaged 247.1 passing yards per game in the two seasons he was coached by Carroll, throwing 50 touchdowns to just 20 interceptions. He recorded a 96.8 QB rating and his game only gets better when he’s playing indoors. Since becoming the full time starter in Seattle, Smith’s stats indoors compared to outdoors are completely different.
When playing outdoors, Smith has a 1.3-1 touchdown to interception ratio, he takes about three sacks per game and has a 87.0 QBR (36 Games). When Geno gets to play indoors, those numbers completely flip. His touchdown to interception ratio jumps to 5.6-1, he’s taking just 1.5 sacks per game and has a 103.6 QBR. Geno’s been a completely different quarterback when indoors and this year he plays 11 of his 17 games, indoors.
In Vrabel We Trust
The New England Patriots look like a team with a bunch of great pieces. Their starting QB Drake Maye looked great in limited time last year, they used their 4th overall pick this year to draft OT Will Campbell from LSU and they added a big name receiver in Stefon Diggs. This doesn’t even account for how good rookie Treyveon Henderson has looked in the backfield or for this brand new coaching staff on the sidelines.
Mike Vrabel, former Patriot and former Head Coach of the Tennessee Titans. He enters this season as one of the most sought after names in the coaching market and he’s decided to take his talents to his former team, the New England Patriots. Vrabel won three Super Bowls with the Patriots and now he returns as the franchise’s (hopeful) saviour.
Sunday’s Best Bets
Hunter Henry o32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Last season the Raiders ranked in the bottom five against opposing tight ends. Vegas gave up the 2nd most touchdowns to the position (10), 5th most yards (65.5 YPG) and the 4th most targets (8.2/game). Hunter Henry is entering his fifth year with the Patriots and his 2nd year playing alongside Drake Maye.
Last year in his first year with Maye under center, Henry averaged 6.3 targets per game, 4.3 receptions per game and 41.9 receiving yards. In the three prior seasons, Henry averaged just 4.1 targets, 2.8 receptions and 31.9 yards per game. Maye has helped the veteran tight end get back to form and Henry’s provided a reliable target for the young quarterback.
Henry’s also got plenty of history against this Raiders team, having played in the AFC West for the entirety of his early career. Against the Raiders, Henry averages 43.3 receiving yards per game and has score four touchdowns. He’s hit this line in 8 of the 12 games he’s played with Maye under center and was even better at home; clearing this line in four of their five home games together.
Jakobi Meyers o51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
I love a good revenge narrative and I love a good story line. Enter, Jakobi Meyers, former Patriots’ wide receiver.
Meyers r equested a trade from the Raiders just under 10 days ago, he remains with the team and has remained at practice. He’s ready to suit up Sunday and now with Pete Carroll on the sidelines and Geno Smith under center, it feels like the perfect year for Meyers to break out. Jakobi had his best season of his career last year and he did it without a true QB1.
The Raiders started three different QBs last year; Gardener Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder. The team finished 4-13, scored just 18.2 PPG and had a bottom five offense for almost the entire season. Meyers still managed to average 68.5 receiving yards per game and averaged 8.6 targets per game. This year with Geno Smith under center, those same numbers should only go up.
Meyers is still this team’s top wide out and this line just feels too low against a Patriots defense that could be without their top cornerback, Christian Gonzalez.
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