Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts
The 7-1 Colts have scored 38 points in back-to-back games and will look to keep that streak alive when they visit the 4-3 Steelers, who have surrendered 33 and 35 points in their last two matchups.
Indianapolis is also aiming to extend its win streak to five, while Pittsburgh looks to avoid a third straight loss. The opening line had the Colts favored by 2.5 with a total of 48.5, but early action has pushed Indy to -3 (with juice) and the total up to a consensus 50.5.
What’s the best way to handicap this matchup? Let’s dive in with my Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts preview and prop bet.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts NFL Betting Insights
Daniel Jones looks to extend the Colts winning streak to five games.
Steelers vs Colts Preview
Oddly enough, despite losing just one game and allowing only 19.3 points per outing, the Colts still have some defensive warning signs. Indianapolis ranks 24th in overall success rate, 26th in rush success rate, and 18th in dropback success rate. EPA metrics tell a more flattering story – 11th overall, 10th in dropback EPA, and 17th against the run.
The Colts remind me a lot of the Patriots. Both teams are red-hot, both have benefited from having the top-three easiest strength of schedules, and both show cracks in defensive consistency despite favorable EPA numbers.
I do think both squads are threats in any game, but I strongly hesitate to label them as true Super Bowl contenders.
For the sake of this article, though, all that really matters is how the Colts stack up against their upcoming opponent in Week 9. And on paper, they match up well.
Offensively, the Colts rank first in EPA per play and second in success rate, while Pittsburgh’s defense sits 25th in EPA per play and 22nd in success rate allowed, giving up 25 points per game and 5.6 yards per play.
Evidently, the Colts are in another advantageous spot for their offense to thrive on Sunday – but will their defense finally get exposed, or can they limit their opposition effectively yet again?
Well, the total indicates there’s a good chance we’ll see the former, and the metrics aren’t too far behind. The Steelers’ offense ranks 10th in EPA per play and 15th in success rate. Those numbers aren’t astounding, but they’re better than I would’ve guessed based on the lack of passing this offense has done.
In the first four weeks of the season, Rodgers had only completed more than 18 passes once. Over his last three games, he’s averaged 22.7 completions on 33.3 attempts. Granted, two of those were losses, so he needed to throw, but I imagine the same will occur on Sunday in order to play keep-up with one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL.
Pittsburgh vs Indianapolis Prop Bet
That leads me to my favorite play: Aaron Rodgers over 222.5 passing yards (-114). Make sure to shop around, because that number has been available. I would play it up to about 230 as well.
The Colts have allowed 10 yards per completion this season, a figure that’s climbed to 10.8 over their last three games. Opposing quarterbacks are attempting 39.1 passes per game against them – tied for second most in the NFL (along with Pittsburgh).
In the first three weeks, Tua Tagovailoa, Bo Nix and Cam Ward all faced the Colts and failed to eclipse 220 yards. Not exactly the strongest group of quarterbacks, especially at the time. But from Weeks 4–8, every opposing QB has gone over 222.5, averaging 320.4 passing yards per game.
Due to the liability that is this Steelers defense, the Colts are going to find consistent ways to score, as they’ve done all season. That’ll force Rodgers into another high-volume passing script, giving him plenty of opportunity to hit this number.
As for a side, it’s hard not to lean toward Indy. Sure, it feels like they’re due for a letdown spot – traveling on the road against a veteran team that’s lost two in a row – but there have already been a few situations this year where we thought the Colts might slip, and they’ve proven us wrong every time.
I’m not willing to step in front of the freight train that is this Colts offense, especially against one of the weaker defenses in the league. I’m not too tempted to lay the juice on the flat -3, so it’s not an official play, but I do lean toward Daniel Jones and his crew.
Best Bet: Aaron Rodgers Over 222.5 Passing Yards (-114)
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