Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns: This AFC North matchup features a rookie quarterback making just his second career start after a trip to London, squaring off against the league’s oldest starting quarterback, who’s coming off extra rest at home.
Seems like there’s a pretty clear advantage, right? But the betting market doesn’t see much of an added edge in those circumstances. When lines first opened in May, the Steelers were 5.5-point favorites with a total of 42.5. Six weeks into the season, the spread is unchanged – Pittsburgh still -5.5 – but the total has dropped significantly to 38.5. So while the new quarterback in Cleveland hasn’t moved the number on the spread, it’s clearly had an impact on the total.
As we know, the new arm under center belongs to the Cleveland Browns, who handed rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel his first career start overseas against a tough Vikings defense. All things considered, Gabriel held his own. He had the Browns in position to win late, but Carson Wentz and Minnesota ultimately pulled through, winning and covering as 3.5-point favorites, 21-17. Gabriel went 19-of-33 for 190 yards with two touchdowns and no turnovers. He also had plenty of help from fellow rookie Quinshon Judkins, who logged 23 carries for 110 yards, and from a defense that’s been the primary reason Cleveland has remained competitive this season.
Can that defense remain formidable against the Steelers, and will we see improvement from Gabriel in start number two? I’ll share my thoughts on that below with my Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns predictions and picks.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns NFL Betting Insights
Can Dillon Gabriel take a step forward in his second career start?
Gauging Gabriel: So how effective was Gabriel in his first career start? On the surface, he had the Browns in position to win last Sunday – but that doesn’t tell the full story. Looking at the advanced metrics from Week 5, Gabriel graded out as one of the league’s worst quarterbacks. Among 28 qualifiers, he ranked last in success rate, second-worst in both completion percentage and CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected), and 26th in adjusted EPA per play.
I’m not trying to knock the kid – I just want to give a clearer picture. It’s no surprise his numbers don’t look great after a first career start dropped in the middle of the season, overseas, against one of the league’s toughest defenses. The Browns coaching staff didn’t exactly set him up for success. Even so, Gabriel still had his team in position to win, which was the most important takeaway from that game. The concern is what happens moving forward. With more film to study and defenses able to game plan for him, it might be unreasonable to expect a repeat of those same results.
Rested Rodgers: On the other side, the Steelers returned from their trip to Ireland with the benefit of a bye week before hosting this matchup on their home turf. Aaron Rodgers, now 41 years old, has guided Pittsburgh to a 3-1 start with back-to-back wins in their past two games.
Still, his play has been far from dominant. Rodgers ranks 27th in success rate and 18th in adjusted EPA per play. The positives: he owns a strong 8-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has completed better than 68% of his 108 pass attempts. The limitations: he’s topped 18 completions just once, back in Week 1 during a 34-32 win over the Jets. Clearly, the Steelers’ offensive approach doesn’t rely on Rodgers consistently airing it out.
The question is whether that style can hold up against a Cleveland defense that’s allowing the fewest yards per play (4.4) and yards per carry (3.0) in the NFL.
Steelers vs Browns Picks & Predictions: The Steelers’ defense has been inconsistent – giving up 31+ points in each of their first two games, then holding the next two opponents to 24 or fewer. With an inexperienced rookie on one side and an aging quarterback facing one of the league’s top defenses on the other, it’s no surprise bettors have leaned toward the under.
I do expect a lower-scoring game and another Steelers win, but I don’t have enough conviction to back them against the spread. Their three victories have come by an average margin of just four points, and in a division matchup that’s likely to be defense-heavy, laying more than a field goal is tough to justify. At the same time, neither the metrics nor the schedule set up well for Gabriel and the Browns, which leaves little value on either the spread, or the total considering the number has dipped drastically.
Where there may be an edge is in the prop market – specifically with Dillon Gabriel. The Steelers’ defense has its flaws, but they’ve held up reasonably well against the run, ranking 12th in rush success rate allowed and giving up just 4.2 yards per carry. Those aren’t elite numbers, but with Quinshon Judkins emerging in the Browns’ backfield, Pittsburgh is likely to focus its game plan on containing him. If Judkins is limited and the Browns fall behind, Cleveland will almost certainly have to lean more heavily on Gabriel and the passing game.
Justin Fields attempted just 22 passes in Week 1 against the Steelers. Since then, though, we’ve seen Sam Darnold throw 33 times, Drake Maye 37, and Carson Wentz 46. The common theme: opponents are attacking Pittsburgh’s secondary, which ranks 25th in dropback success rate and 23rd in dropback EPA.
In his debut, Gabriel threw 33 times in a competitive game, and I expect a similar workload in his second start. His passing attempts prop has been listed around 30.5 throughout most of this week. I lean heavily to the over and consider this angle one of the best to approach in this game’s prop market.
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