Bettors are always on the hunt for an edge, whether it’s through narratives, data, or historical trends. While trends shouldn’t be the sole reason to back a team, there are certain situations where they’re worth noting.
A few of those spots pop up in NFL Week 7, so let’s dive into the NFL Week 7 trends that you should know.
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NFL Week 7 Trends Insights
Can Bryce Young finally perform well on the road?
Titans After Firing Brian Callahan
The most notable storyline this week revolves around the Tennessee Titans, who fired head coach Brian Callahan on Monday. Many bettors lean toward backing teams in the game following a coach’s firing, believing players will rally together and shift blame to the ousted coach rather than themselves.
But here’s the reality: As bad as midseason-fired coaches often are – and let’s be honest, they’re usually pretty bad – they aren’t the only problem. More often than not, the roster around them has issues too.
Over the past decade, teams in their first game after firing a head coach are 10-12 straight up (SU) and 11-11 against the spread (ATS).
So, despite the common “rallying” narrative, there’s no meaningful edge in blindly backing a team after a coach gets fired.
The Patriots are laying -7 on the road against the Titans, which is a hefty number – especially for a team playing its third straight road game. Historically, teams in this exact scheduling spot have struggled. Over the past 20 seasons, teams playing their third consecutive road game after winning the first two are just 15-27 straight up and 16-24-2 against the spread.
Despite that, many bettors are backing the Mike Vrabel revenge game narrative, as the Titans’ head coach faces his former team. But while that storyline might be compelling, it doesn’t override the historically poor results teams have shown in this kind of road fatigue spot
This is exactly why trends can be tricky and unreliable – you can find pros and cons on both sides of almost any matchup. It’s ultimately up to you, the bettor, to determine which angles carry more weight. That’s why it’s crucial not to rely on trends alone. Instead, pair them with advanced data, injury reports and line movement in the betting market to make a more informed decision.
The Winless New York Jets
Let’s look at another spot that might be so ugly, it’s actually entertaining. The 0-6 New York Jets are hosting the 3-3 Carolina Panthers. New York has been atrocious across the board this season, and they’re likely to be without their star receiver, Garrett Wilson. Despite that, they’re only catching +1.5 points at home.
So what gives?
For starters, the Panthers may not be as solid as the public perceives. Two of their wins came against two of the worst defenses in the league – the Dolphins and Cowboys – and both were narrow three-point victories. Their most impressive performance came in Week 3, when they blew out division rival Atlanta 30-0. That game feels like an outlier, but credit where it’s due, it was a dominant showing.
That said, Carolina hasn’t handled being a favorite well in recent years. Since 2021, the Panthers are 0-10 straight up and against the spread when listed as the favorite. Quarterback Bryce Young has also struggled mightily on the road, going just 1-15 straight up in 16 career starts away from home. Clearly, this team is more comfortable in its own building, where they are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games.
On the other side, winless teams like the Jets tend to show some fight in this exact spot. Since 2020, teams that start 0-6 are 11-4 against the spread in their seventh game of the season.
Of course, whether you choose to use these trends is entirely up to you. I recommend taking them with a grain of salt, as much of the data dates back several years—when the teams involved looked very different. Every situation is unique and comes with its own context, so some trends carry more weight than others. That said, they can still offer a different perspective and prove useful from time to time.
Best of luck this week and enjoy the NFL Week 7 slate!
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