Week 6 is upon us and with so many great matchups, we’ve got even better props. This week we’ve got a few angles we’re attacking: Young Greatness, Revenge, & A Reminder.
Let’s dive straight into this week’s best prop bets.
P. Nacua o65.5 Rec Yards (-113) via Bovada
First, let’s start with Young Greatness. This a story about Puka Nacua, and the rookie year this man is having. The Los Angeles Rams may really have TWO ‘Cooper Kupp(s)’.
So far in 2023; he’s averaging 12.3 targets/game, 9.2 rec/game, and 114.4 rec yard/game. Last week, in Cooper Kupp’s return, he hauled in 8 of his 11 targets; in addition to 75 yards receiving
He’s quickly become another target heavy receiver for Matt Stafford, with him and Kupp combining for 23 of the 29 ‘WR’ Targets.
Prior to Kupp’s return, Puka was on pace for one of the greatest receiving seasons of all time, and a possible offensive player of the year award.
In their game last week against the Eagles, Stafford had a sub-par outing even by his own standards; recording just 222 yards through the air.
The issue was the Philadelphia pass rush. They were able to record 4 sacks, knock Stafford down 4 times, all while sending a fair share of different blitz packages.
This season, when Stafford is sacked two or fewer times, he’s thrown for 307+ yards in all games (3); never throwing fewer than 38 pass attempts.
Against the Eagles the Rams saw a season low in possession time, and ran just 56 offensive plays; they averaged 74.5/game prior to last week, and recording 80+ in their two wins.
Now the Cardinals rank 24th in opponent time of possession, allowing their opponents 32:32 of possession time; 33:59 in their L3 (29th). They rank 29th in receiving yards allowed to WRs.
The Rams enter Week 6 as 7 point home favourites and the total (47.5) is tied for the highest on the Sunday Slate
The Cards are also giving up 7.8 yards/completion and allowing a 72% completion rate. Coming into SoFi on a Sunday afternoon is no easy task.
Nacua’s averaged 133 yards/game against divisional opponents, next on the list is Arizona. Look for Nacua to leave his mark on this game, in his first ever matchup with the Cardinals
Puka Nacua o65.5 Rec Yards (-113) via Bovada
J. Meyers o58.5 Rec Yards (-120) via Bovada
Now the tale of Revenge. Enter, Jakobi Meyers, former New England Patriot.
Meyers played his first 4 seasons in New England, but in his first year with the Las Vegas Raiders he is currently on pace for his best statistical season yet.
Since coming over from the Patriots, in 4 games; Meyer’s is averaging 68.5 rec yards/game, 6.3 rec/game, on 9 targets/game. He’s also managed to bring in 3 touchdowns.
In three games with Jimmy G as the starter, he’s averaging 80.3 rec yards/game, 7.7 rec, and 10.7 targets/game. Jimmy’s also thrown 6 total touchdowns this year, 3 of them have been to Jakobi.
Jimmy G isn’t the type of QB that forces his number one receiver the ball, or forces the ball into tough matchups.
The Patriots were thin in their secondary, but have since traded for another former Patriot, JC Jackson.
Jackson’s looked like a shell of his former self early this season, but after a good game last week, he was saying he was feeling comfortable again. The Patriots lost to the Saints 34-0 but a lot of that was self-inflicted damage.
Olave finished with just 2 catches and 12 yards, while Michael Thomas reeled in 4 catches for 65 yards.
With all the talk surrounding Belichick and the Patriots, look for him to make some adjustments. Playing his former offensive co-ordinator, Josh McDaniels and his former ‘Tom Brady Replacement’ Jimmy Garoppolo.
Davante Adams has faced off with the Patriots 3 times, eclipsing 40 yards just once; back in 2014, in his rookie year, while Aaron Rodgers was still his QB.
Look for Jakobi to continue to see an uptick in targets while playing with Jimmy. Last week we saw Adams lined up opposite shutdown corner Jair Alexander, and he would see just 4 targets, catching all 4 for 28 yards.
On the other side, we had Jakobi record 7 catches for 75 yards on 10 targets.
Now with the Patriots in town and all the former Patriotss now in Raider gear, expect revenge to be a common theme Sunday afternoon.
Jakobi Meyers o58.5 Rec Yards (-120) via Bovada
R. Mostert o77.5 Rush Yards (-114) via Bovada
The reminder, Raheem Mostert. Devon Achane has been getting a love recently, justified no doubt. But lets not forget about Raheem Mostert and the numbers he put up during the first weeks of the season.
He’s eclipsed 100 yards once this year, and 80 just twice. But no Achane, and the Dolphins are missing serious depth at the running back position.
Jeff Wilson Jr. looked like he may be elevated off the IR, but it doesn’t seem like he’ll be ready to go for Week 6.
Fourth year RB, Salvon Ahmed has seen 9 carries all season, should not see a significant portion of the carries for Miami.
The Dolphins enter the game as a 14 point home favorite, with the total sitting at 47.5, again tied for the highest total this Sunday.
The Panthers are allowing the third most rushing yards to opponent RBs in the league, and allowing a 5.3 YPC average. They’ve given up 8 touchdowns to the position, and on average give up 24.6 carries/game to RBs.
The Dolphins are averaging 6.9 YPC as a team, so in a game that Miami should handle from kick-off to the final buzzer; look for Mostert to see an uptick in carries due to playing with the lead.
R. Mostert o77.5 Rush Yards (-114) via Bovada
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