Week 5, the Bye Weeks have finally begun. With fewer teams in action, that means less props, which means we need to get a little more surgical.
Last week the Jaguars played Falcons at Wembley stadium, well instead of coming home the Jaguars stayed back in London. This week the Bills will make the trip to London to take on the Jaguars at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
This week we’ll see the Browns, Chargers, Seahawks, and Buccaneers all on a bye week.
Let’s get into our favorite Player Props for Week 5.
J. Jefferson o105.5 Rec Yards (-115 ) via Bovada
Jefferson has never played the Chiefs, but both of these offenses are some of the best in football. Last time the Chiefs and Vikings met, the Chiefs won 26-23; Kirk threw the ball 38 times for 220 yards and 3 TDs.
Diggs was still a Viking, and Kirk was not the same Kirk Cousins we know today. This was back in 2019 and Kirk had his 2nd lowest TD total as a starter, and lowest pass yards/game average of his career.
Jefferson’s in the midst of his fourth season, and since he’s been drafted by the Vikings, Kirks thrown for no less than 29 TDs (35 + 33), and averaged no less than 266 PassY/game.
This season Jefferson’s seeing almost 12 targets/game, up from 10.8 last season, and 9.8 the year before. Kirk’s trust in Jefferson has only grown and we saw it on display last week.
Against a tough Panther secondary, Kirk threw the ball just 19 times, Jefferson was targeted 9 times on those passes. He had 6 catches, 85 yards and 2 tuddys.
Kirk had thrown the ball 44, 44, and 50 times through the first three weeks of the season. In those games, Jefferson was targeted 12, 13, and 13 times; finishing with 149+ yards in each of the 3 games.
In J. Jettas we trust.
J. Jefferson o105.5 Rec Yards (-115 ) via Bovada
T. Hill o91.5 Rec Yards (-120) via Bovada
Tyreek’s coming off one of his worst games, statistically, since he began playing with Tua Tagovailoa.
He’s had two really bad games with Tua as a starter, where not only has he been held in check yardage wise, but no more than 5 targets in both games and no touchdowns. Both games came against the Bills.
Last time that happened, the Dolphins played the Bengals the following week; Tyreek put up 10 catches for 160 yards on 14 targets. And he did this, despite Tua getting hurt. Tua only attempted 14 passes before Teddy Bridgewater entered the game.
On paper it may seem like this Giants team isn’t giving up much through the air; but it’s more the fact that they surrender leads early, and usually big leads.
The Giants are allowing 11.5 yards/completion (25th), rank 29th in QB hits, and 31st in sack percentage; recording just 4 sacks in 4 weeks.
After the Dolphins got embarrassed in Buffalo, look for them to come out with something to prove. Tyreek Hill hears all the talk, look for him to respond today in Miami.
T. Hill o91.5 Rec Yards (-120) via Bovada
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